055
FXUS63 KIND 051828
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
228 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BEST RAIN CHANCES FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL
INDIANA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
- PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WABASH VALLEY AND SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA EARLY TUESDAY
- TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
- DRY AND MUCH WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
PLENTY OF CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE PESKY UPPER LOW CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH OVER
KENTUCKY. SHOWERS REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED FOCUSED ACROSS THE LOWER
WABASH VALLEY AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES CURRENTLY. CLOUD BASES HAVE
BEEN HIGHER TODAY VERSUS SUNDAY AND THERE HAVE BEEN PEAKS OF
SUNSHINE AS WELL...BOTH WHICH HAVE HELPED TEMPERATURES RECOVER FROM
THE LATE WEEKEND CHILLY READINGS. 18Z TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE EAST IN THE SHORT TERM WITH
A GRADUALLY LESSENING IMPACT TO CENTRAL INDIANA. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST HOWEVER THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING EAST
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
WHILE MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IS DRY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EVENING AS A VORT LOBE LIFTS
COUNTERCLOCKWISE AROUND THE UPPER LOW. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE
WILL SPIN UP ACROSS WESTERN OHIO TONIGHT WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY
EXTENDING W/SW INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
HINTS OF A TROWAL FEATURE AS WELL...EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS INTO
NORTHEAST COUNTIES THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN AS FAR WEST AS THE I-65 CORRIDOR.
WEST OF I-65...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SOME
CLEARING OF THE STRATOCU DECK DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AS DRIER AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER...PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY
TO DEVELOP FOCUSED ACROSS THE WABASH VALLEY AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
ANY FOG WILL DIMINISH AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY WITH LINGERING LOWER
CLOUDS DISSIPATING FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE
SLOWLY EXPANDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON AND MAY BE SPORADICALLY
GUSTY AT TIMES AS DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
TEMPS...LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID 40S OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION AS CLOUDS DIMINISH. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE INDY METRO WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE
TO 50 WITH THE THE THICKER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL
RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
THE INFLUENCE OF THE STAGNANT CUTOFF UPPER LOW THAT HAS IMPACTED THE
REGION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY WANE AS THE FEATURE
WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT INTO NEW ENGLAND BY MIDWEEK. A BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES HOWEVER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...KEEPING SEASONABLY COOL AIR ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE
ALSO FORCING THE STAGNANT UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
US TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL PERSIST...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW
IN THE OVERALL TREND TOWARDS DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER BY THE WEEKEND
AND CERTAINLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
RIDGING ALOFT WILL PERSIST AND BRIEFLY RESIDE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE LINGERING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES GRADUALLY ABSORBS THE
SECOND CUTOFF LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE
TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY BY THURSDAY WITH ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT PRESENT TO
SUPPORT A LOW THREAT FOR SHOWERS AFTER A LARGELY DRY DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.
THE BIGGER IMPACT FROM THE SHARPENING OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE TO
ENHANCE NORTHERLY FLOW AND COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY ON
THURSDAY FROM READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY. EXPECT HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOWS NEAR 40 OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ON FRIDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH CLEARING SKIES.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW IN A LARGELY DRY AND SPECTACULAR
WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION AND RIDGING
ALOFT EXPANDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THERMALS SUGGESTIVE OF TEMPERATURES NEAR
80 FOR MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MAY BE ABLE TO GENERATE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM BUT EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE AND LIMITED MOISTURE THROUGH THE
COLUMN.
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE 80S
INCREASINGLY LIKELY.
AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
IMPACTS:
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
- POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MAINLY AT KBMG
AND KHUF
- BRIEF PERIODS WITH MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
DISCUSSION:
CEILINGS HAVE LARGELY RISEN TO VFR LEVELS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW TO THE
SOUTHEAST. AS THAT FEATURE SHIFTS EAST INTO TONIGHT...SPOKES OF
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LIFT INTO CENTRAL INDIANA INTO TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN OHIO OVERNIGHT WITH THE BULK OF
ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN FOCUSING PREDOMINANTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
TERMINALS. AS DRIER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW AND
OVER THE REGION...SKIES MAY CLEAR ENOUGH AT KBMG AND KHUF FOR PATCHY
FOG FORMATION DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR MVFR STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT EARLY
TUESDAY AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY WITH CLOUD COVER DIMINISHING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10KTS.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN
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