774
FXUS63 KIND 061807
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
207 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
- BRIEFLY COOLER FRIDAY, THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUN
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
TONIGHT.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT WITH SURFACE GUSTS RELAXING
AFTER SUNSET AS A NEAR SURFACE INVERSION SETS IN WITH THE LOSS OF
SURFACE HEATING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE TO NO SATURATION ALOFT,
SO CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER THE DIURNAL CU
DISSIPATES. SOME CIRRUS ALOFT WILL STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT THIS SHOULDN'T HAVE ANY IMPACTS TO OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WITH THE THIN NATURE OF THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE LOW 50S WITH A LOW-END THREAT FOR A RETURN OF FOG
TOMORROW MORNING. THE THREAT LOOKS MUCH LOWER THAN THIS MORNING WITH
A DRIER SURFACE AIRMASS AND WEAKER SUBSIDENCE ABOVE THE INVERSION.
WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW WITH MORE WIDESPREAD HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH ADVECTS SOME
MOISTURE ALOFT INTO THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE MID 70S WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE
LESS THAN 10KTS. CAN'T RULE OUT A SPRINKLE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
INDIANA, BUT WITH DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THAT THE LIFT WOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECIPITATE FROM A CLOUD
DECK AT NEARLY 10KFT.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SHORT TERM WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
A LOW-END THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS MAY BE JUST HIGH ENOUGH FOR A
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE PROPERLY
RESOLVING THIS AXIS OF RAIN BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE
AXIS WILL SET UP, SO WILL KEEP POPS SOMEWHAT BROADBRUSHED WITH A
LOCAL MAXIMUM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
GREATEST. SURFACE FLOW WILL BROADLY REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 60S WITH COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS OF MID 40S TO MID 50S.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A FAIRLY STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE GULF STATES AND LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW NEAR
THE SURFACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT
NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS THE PRECIPITATION AXIS SHIFTS NORTHWARD. WITH NO
CONNECTION TO GULF MOISTURE, QPF WILL BE MINIMAL WITH NO THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
IMPACTS:
-WESTERLY GUSTS TO 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS AT AROUND 035 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST TO 20KTS AND
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 25KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE
DROPPING TO AROUND 4-7KTS TONIGHT.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...WHITE
LONG TERM...WHITE
AVIATION...WHITE
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