348
FXUS63 KIND 081036
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
636 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
I-70. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
- BRIEFLY COOLER THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES RETURN MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL GET ABSORBED INTO A SHARP UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST USA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME RAIN CHANCES
TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
EARLY THIS MORNING...
MOISTURE HAS INCREASED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA AS MOISTURE
FROM THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW TO THE WEST GETS PULLED INTO THE AREA.
SOME WEAK LIFT IS GENERATING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER WAS ACROSS THE NORTH.
WEAK FORCING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THIS
PERIOD, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD CONTINUE BRING A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
TODAY...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING, BUT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AND A SECONDARY SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVE IN THIS
AFTERNOON, MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BE SHUNTED SOUTH. SOME ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING, BUT AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES ALONG WITH FORCING FROM THE UPPER TROUGH,
COVERAGE OF RAIN WILL INCREASE SOME.
INSTABILITY STILL WON'T BE IMPRESSIVE, AND SHEAR WILL BE VERY WEAK.
THUS. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER, GIVEN WEAK STEERING
FLOW, STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. HREF LOCAL PROBABILITY MATCHED MEAN SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR A
COUPLE OF INCHES IN ISOLATED AREAS.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED TIMING OF THE SYSTEM, AREAS SOUTH OF I-70 HAVE
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TODAY. WILL GO HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY TO
LOW LIKELY POPS SOUTH, TAPERING QUICKLY TO LOW OR NO POPS SOUTH OF I-
70 THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE MID 60S FAR NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 70S
FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
TONIGHT...
WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EARLY IN THE FAR SOUTH TO ACCOUNT
FOR ANY LINGERING RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM. OTHERWISE, DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH, PROVIDING CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE FAR NORTH TO
THE MIDDLE 40S SOUTH.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD, AND UPPER RIDGING WILL BE TRYING TO NOSE IN FROM THE
WEST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRY AND SNEAK IN ON SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT
WITH NO UPPER SUPPORT AND NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE, DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE.
FRIDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S, BUT HIGHS IN
THE 70S RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL WARM FROM THE 40S FRIDAY
NIGHT TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA
GETTING SOME COLDER AIR FROM LAKE MICHIGAN BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH WOULD RETURN LOWS TO THE 40S THERE BRIEFLY.
MONDAY AND BEYOND...
AN UPPER LOW IN THE GULF STATES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN USA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK SURFACE
LOW WILL ACCOMPANY IT. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS WHEN INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED, BUT AT THIS TIME, INSTABILITY
DOESN'T LOOK GOOD ENOUGH FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE, EVEN WITH THE UPPER LOW, AS
SOME SUNSHINE IS STILL EXPECTED AT TIMES.
AROUND THURSDAY A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND COULD BRING A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR
READINGS TO REACH THE MIDDLE 80S FOR HIGHS THURSDAY.
AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
IMPACTS:
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME STORMS AROUND FOR MOST
SITES DURING THE DAY TODAY, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON
- MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN CONVECTION
- LOW PROBABILITY OF BRIEF IFR CEILINGS EARLY AT KLAF AND KIND
DISCUSSION:
MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THIS MORNING,
THEN THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE AROUND FOR
ALL BUT KLAF. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE RAIN.
CURRENTLY WATCHING A BAND OF IFR CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHWEST, INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW FAR SOUTHWEST THIS WILL MAKE IT.
WILL INCLUDE A SCATTERED LAYER FOR THE NORTHERN SITES THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, WITH CLEARING TONIGHT.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50
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