066
FXUS63 KIND 090533
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
133 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BRIEFLY COOLER THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES RETURN MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
- WARMEST AIR OF THE YEAR SO FAR POSSIBLE BY LATE NEXT WEEK
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 845 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
SUBSIDENCE INDUCED BY THE EMERGENCE OF AN ELONGATED RIDGE TO THE
NORTH HAS PUSHED CONVECTION SOUTHWARD INTO KY, LEAVING ALL OF
CENTRAL INDIANA DRY AS OF 01Z. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT, WITH SKIES QUICKLY CLEARING OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED CIRRUS
DECKS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY MORE ELEVATED
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT (7-10KT) WITH A LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER
PASSING TO THE SOUTH. FOR THIS REASON TEMPS WERE BUMPED UP A FEW
DEGREES THIS EVENING WITH THE PBL DECOUPLING EXPECTED TO BE
DELAYED SLIGHTLY.
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED FROM TERRE HAUTE TO
GREENSBURG, SLOWLY CRAWLING SOUTHWARD. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE ALSO
SCATTERED FURTHER SOUTH WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE SLOW
MOVING NATURE OF THESE STORMS, ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A
THREAT IN ADDITION TO SOME SMALL HAIL, MAINLY ACROSS THE NEARLY
STATIONARY LINE OF STORMS.
MODELS SHOW A BOUNDARY CURRENTLY SITTING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA
PUSHING SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING THAT WILL FINALLY HELP TO MOVE THESE
STORMS ALONG AND EXPECTING THEM TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA EARLY
TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO TAKE OVER TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW,
DRIFTING IN FROM THE NW, PROVIDING CLEARER SKIES ALBEIT SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
RIDGING WILL EXPAND OVER TOP OF A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN WARM AND DRY
WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE DIMINISHING PRODUCING SCATTERED
DIURNAL CONVECTION. THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT BY THURSDAY MAY
BRING THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE YEAR SO FAR WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 80S BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
SPECTACULAR WEEKEND. AFTER A COOLER AND BREEZY DAY FRIDAY...AND A
CHILLY START ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH SUNDAY AS
SURFACE FLOW GENERALLY SWINGS AROUND TO W/SW. DEEP SUBSIDENCE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY SUPPORTS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
A SUBTLE INCREASE IN CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS A
WEAK BOUNDARY WASHES OUT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO BE NEAR 80 SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WHICH WILL LIFT NORTH AND INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. THE PRESENCE OF THE FEATURE WILL GENERATE
ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT TO INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION FOCUSED ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK
HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A LACK OF APPRECIABLE
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT PULSE INTENSITY AND SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE COOLEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE TUESDAY IN THE MID 70S WITH
THE GREATEST CLOUD AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EXPECTED. BOTH MONDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH LOWS RISING INTO
THE 60S BY MIDWEEK.
THE SIGNAL FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE REGIME DEVELOPING AS WELL. WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM
FRONT THURSDAY...HIGHS COULD RISE INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S
FOR LATE NEXT WEEK BRINGING A DISTINCTLY SUMMER FEEL TO CENTRAL
INDIANA FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
IMPACTS:
- NONE.
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER NOON. WINDS DIE DOWN EVEN FURTHER
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE LIMITED TO OCCASIONAL THIN CIRRUS.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...UPDIKE
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...ECKHOFF
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