862
FXUS63 KIND 101315
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
915 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY CLEAR AND PLEASANT WEEKEND AHEAD
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES RETURN MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
- NEAR-RECORD WARMTH EXPECTED NEXT THURSDAY-FRIDAY
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 914 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM MICHIGAN TO IA. HIGH PRESSURE WAS FOUND OVER WESTERN
ONTARIO. ANOTHER ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM NRN
MO ACROSS INDIANA TO SOUTHERN OH. ALOFT, A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WAS FOUND OVER THE ROCKIES, WHILE AN UPPER LOW WAS FOUND
OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A BROADER BUT CUT-OFF UPPER LOW WAS FOUND OVER
LOUISIANA. THIS WAS RESULTING IN NW FLOW ACROSS INDIANA AND
SUBSIDENCE.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. EVENTUALLY THE HIGH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL RE-
ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION WHILE SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY AND CU IS NOT
EXPECTED. THUS A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE. ONGOING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S REMAIN ON TARGET.
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE REGION. ALOFT, A REX BLOCK PATTERN IS
NOW ESTABLISHED OVER THE CONUS WITH STRONG RIDGING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN TIER AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST. A
SECONDARY SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CANADA IS MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD, WHICH WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD LATER
TODAY.
UNTIL THAT FRONT ARRIVES, WINDS LOOK TO BE CALM OR LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP QUICKLY AS RIDGING
STRENGTHENS ALOFT WITH HIGHS 10 DEGREES OR SO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
THOUGH INDIANA IS WITHIN GREATER INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGING,
SOME HIGH CIRRUS FROM THE UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL CREEP INTO THE
AREA AT TIMES. DEW POINTS MAY NEED TO BE NUDGED DOWN A BIT LIKE
YESTERDAY SINCE DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IS ONCE AGAIN ANTICIPATED.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ARRIVES AROUND 00Z, WITH INCREASING
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND IT. WINDS INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 KNOTS,
WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THE BEST CHANCE OF
GUSTS THAT HIGH ARE FURTHER NORTH, SINCE THE FRONT WILL BE
TEMPORARILY STRENGTHENED BY THE COOL WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE
BOUNDARY THEN WEAKENS AND LOOSES DEFINITION AS IT HEADS SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER DESPITE THE FRESH SHOT
OF COOLER AIR. INCREASED SURFACE WINDS ARE THE REASON, AS THE
EFFECTS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING ARE SOMEWHAT MINIMIZED. STILL,
TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S ARE EXPECTED. SOME VALUES IN
THE LOW 40S ARE POSSIBLE IN RURAL AREAS. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA DUE TO GREATER
INFLUENCE FROM LAKE-MODIFIED AIR.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
FOR SUNDAY, AMPLIFIED HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE MIDWEST
NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN QUEBEC...WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER LOVELY,
ALBEIT RATHER WARM SPRING DAY TO END THE WEEKEND. MODERATE BREEZES
WILL RETURN AS SURFACE FLOW VEERS SLIGHTLY TO EASTERLY...CONTINUING
THE INCREASING TREND OF DEWPOINTS FROM THE 40S TO AROUND 50F FOR
MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE DAY. AMPLE MORNING SUN WILL YIELD TO
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS...YET READINGS WILL REBOUND 30, TO PERHAPS 35
DEGREES ALONG THE WABASH VALLEY...WITH WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE 75-80F RANGE.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM BRINGING
A NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID, AND AT TIMES SHOWERY TRANSITION THROUGH THE
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME...INTO THE LOCAL REGION'S FIRST TASTE OF
DISTINCTIVE SUMMERLIKE WEATHER DURING THURSDAY-FRIDAY. THE BLOCKED
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THAT WILL HAVE BROUGHT SEVERAL PLACID DAYS THIS
WEEKEND TO CENTRAL INDIANA...COURTESY OF THE STACKED RIDGE RESTING
TO THE NORTH OF A BROAD CUT-OFF TROUGH CENTERED ALONG THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WILL BREAK DOWN, BRINGING THIS BROAD YET
RATHER WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER MOST OF THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MID-WEEK. HOWEVER, SHOWERS/FEW T-STORMS MAY ONLY EXHIBIT ANY
REAL ORGANIZATION IN THE MONDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME, WHEN BETTER DEEP MOISTURE OVERLAPS WITH THE SLOWLY-
PASSING TROUGH'S RATHER WEAK FORCING. SO FAR WIDESPREAD LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TOTALS, WITH MORE ISOLATED/EMBEDDED MODERATE
RAINFALL, IS EXPECTED.
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM SLOWLY CROSSING THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BE A
STRONGER TROUGH, WHICH SHOULD ACTUALLY LIFT SLIGHTLY WHILE
SPINNING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY...ALLOWING A
STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL US TO BUILD
FROM NORTHERN MEXICO/TEXAS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/MIDWEST. 1000-500
MB THICKNESS APPROACHING 575 DM AND H850 TEMPERATURES NEAR 20
DEGREES CELSIUS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO NEAR-RECORD AFTERNOON HIGHS
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHILE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MORNING MINIMUMS
ARE GUIDED BY DEWPOINTS PERSISTING IN THE 60S. ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/TRWS WILL ACCOMPANY THE BROAD AND SLOWLY-PASSING WARM
FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING OUT OF THE NORTHERN SYSTEM'S DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW NEAR THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH. A COOL-FRONT TYPE
BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH OF THIS CYCLONE SHOULD BRING A NOTICEABLE
STEP BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE CONDITIONS BY THE VERY END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. INDIANAPOLIS' RECORD HIGH NEXT THURSDAY IS
88F...87F IS THE CURRENT FORECAST MAX.
AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
IMPACTS:
- NONE
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. WINDS INCREASE A BIT WHILE BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. WINDS THEN INCREASE
FURTHER BEHIND THE FRONT, TO AROUND 10-15KT, BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE LIMITED TO HIGH CIRRUS, BUT A FEW MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...PUMA
SHORT TERM...ECKHOFF
LONG TERM...AGM
AVIATION...ECKHOFF
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