270
FXUS63 KIND 110540
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
140 AM EDT SUN MAY 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY CLEAR AND PLEASANT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
- PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPECTED MUCH OF THIS
COMING WEEK, SOME SEVERE RISK POSSIBLE LATE WEEK
- WARMEST AIR OF THE YEAR SO FAR POSSIBLE BY LATE THIS WEEK,
WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 929 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
NUMEROUS MINOR TO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE OVER THE COURSE OF THE
EVENING TO DEW POINTS WITH A WIDE SPREAD OF SURFACE MOISTURE ACROSS
THE STATE. DEW POINTS HAVE REMAINED IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE THE WEAK
COLD FRONT HAS NOT PASSED AND MIXING WASN'T AS EFFICIENT THIS
AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST, DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN AS LOW AS
THE UPPER 20S BUT GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. MODELS HAVE
GREATLY STRUGGLED WITH FORECASTING THE SURFACE MOISTURE WITH 0 HOUR
FORECASTS FROM THE HRRR AS FAR AS 15 DEGREES OFF, SO GENERALLY
TRENDED THE FORECAST TO MATCH OBSERVATIONS WHERE POSSIBLE.
THE LAKE ENHANCED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE AS
IT STALLS ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH OCCASIONAL NORTHERLY WIND
GUSTS TO 20KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE MADE SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS TO CAPTURE AREAS THAT WILL DROP COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE LOWS IN THE MID 40S ARE LIKELY VS SOUTH OF
THE FRONT WHERE LOWS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN IA. HIGH
PRESSURE WAS FOUND OVER WESTERN ONTARIO, PUSHING SOUTHWARD. ANOTHER
ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM NRN MO ACROSS INDIANA
TO SOUTHERN OH. ALOFT, A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS FOUND OVER
THE ROCKIES, WHILE AN UPPER LOW WAS FOUND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND A
BROADER BUT CUT-OFF UPPER LOW WAS FOUND OVER LOUISIANA. THIS WAS
RESULTING IN NW FLOW ACROSS INDIANA AND SUBSIDENCE AS SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY, PUSHING SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHERN INDIANA. GOES16
SHOWED HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.
THESE CLOUDS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CUT-OFF
LOW TO THE SOUTH.
TONIGHT -
ANOTHER QUIET, PLEASANT NIGHT OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED. MODELS SUGGEST
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD,
ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DRY NORTHERLY FLOW. THE SURFACE HIGH
TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND STRENGTHEN
ITSELF, MEANWHILE ALSO PUSHING INFLUENCE SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL RESULT
IN CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE MID LEVELS AS SEEN WITHIN TIME
HEIGHT SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH UPPER LEVEL CI CLOUDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THUS MORE CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA WHILE SKIES
ARE MOSTLY CLEAR OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE. MODELS SUGGEST
LITTLE OVERALL TEMPERATURE CHANGE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND DEVELOPMENT OF NORTHERLY FLOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE PERSISTENCE VALUES. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. CLOUD COVER MAY PREVENT MAX COOLING AT
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.
SUNDAY -
THE UPPER PATTERN ON SUNDAY IS SUGGESTS STRONG RIDGING TO PUSH INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES, WHILE THE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER LOUISIANA. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES,
PROVIDING HIGH CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO PUSH NORTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST
WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER WITHIN THE LOWER LEVELS,
PROVIDING DRY EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AGREE, KEEPING A DRY COLUMN IN PLACE, WITH HINTS OF SATURATION
ALOFT. THAT HIGH SATURATION APPEARS TO INDICATIVE OF THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVING DUE TO THE UPPER LOW TO
THE SOUTH. ALL OF THIS WILL ADD UP TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON
SUNDAY.
GIVEN THE LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL AIRMASS, BUT THE NORTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW, HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY SHOULD RUN AT OR SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN PERSISTENCE, IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE NOTICEABLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID,
PARTICULARLY LATER IN THE WEEK, WITH THE FIRST REAL TASTE OF SUMMER-
LIKE CONDITIONS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK, AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO
THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS JUMP INTO THE 60S.
ADDITIONALLY, MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK, FIRST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL DRIFT BACK NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
GULF COAST STATES AND REABSORB INTO THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES
THROUGH MID WEEK, AND THEN WITH A POTENT LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEK ON THE PERIPHERY OF BROAD UPPER
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN US AND THE GULF.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
AND ISOLATED FLOODING GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.
LATER IN THE WEEK, AS THE UPPER LOW AS ABSORBED INTO A TROUGH
SWINGING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND HEIGHTS INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION, INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND THETA-E ADVECTION COULD
PRESENT A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER, PRIMARILY LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL
DEPENDING UPON ONE'S MODEL OF CHOICE. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH,
ESPECIALLY BEYOND THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT FORECAST
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES, ALONG WITH INCREASING KINEMATIC SUPPORT LATE
THURSDAY, MAY SUPPORT AN UPSTREAM SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WHICH COULD
GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS. THIS IS
WELL SUPPORTED BY VARIOUS EXPERIMENTAL MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE
SOURCES AS WELL.
NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY - THE
INDIANAPOLIS RECORD HIGH FOR THE DATE IS 88, WITH CURRENT FORECAST
HIGHS AROUND 86-87.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT SUN MAY 11 2025
IMPACTS:
NONE.
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT PASSED
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF
THE NORTH AND UNDER 10 KNOTS UNTIL A SECONDARY FRONT PUSHES IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS,
BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY, WITH A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KNOTS.
CIRRUS CONTINUES TO EBB AND FLOW BUT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES FROM
THE SOUTH AS WELL, LEADING TO OCCASIONAL MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND
FINALLY LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER ABOUT 00Z. LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO THICKEN OVERNIGHT, POTENTIALLY BECOMING AN MVFR CEILING BY 12Z
MONDAY MORNING.
AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER IS POSSIBLE BY AROUND 12Z MONDAY AS WELL,
BUT IS TOO LOW OF PROBABILITY TO MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...WHITE
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...ECKHOFF
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