539
FXUS63 KIND 011648
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1248 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL START THIS MORNING BUT NICE WARMUP FOR THIS AFTERNOON
- TURNING WARMER FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
- PERIODIC STORM CHANCES SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 948 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2025
AFTER THE COLDEST START TO JUNE SINCE 2003, TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE
RISE. SATELLITE SHOWS PLENTY OF ELEVATED SMOKE THIS MORNING, WHICH
IS FILTERING THE SUNSHINE.
A QUIET DAY IS IN STORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UPPED SKY
COVER BASED ON THE SMOKE SEEN ON SATELLITE. SOME THINNING LOOKS TO
OCCUR FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING, BUT STILL FEEL THAT PARTLY CLOUDY
WOULD BE AN APT DESCRIPTION OF THE DAY WITH THE AMOUNT OF SMOKE
LEFT.
EVEN WITH THE FILTERED SUNSHINE, THE DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW A
NICE REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED.
ONGOING FORECAST HAD THIS COVERED, SO MADE NO CHANGES TO HIGHS.
ELEVATED SMOKE WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY, WITH PERHAPS SOME THICKER
SMOKE ARRIVING THEN. UPPED SKY COVER INTO MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2025
A DEEP PLUME OF SUBSIDENCE HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA NORTHEAST OF THE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL ILLINOIS ACROSS THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY AND INTO KENTUCKY.
A NARROW AXIS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACCOMPANIED THE REMNANT
BOUNDARY WITH CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE 40S INTO THE LOWER 50S.
WE ARE WELCOMING JUNE IN A CHILLY WAY WITH LOWS EXPECTED IN THE
40S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK. WITH DEWPOINTS AS
LOW AS THEY ARE AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FOR ALL
BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OF
OUR NORMAL COOL SPOTS TO SLIP BELOW 40. THIS IS GUARANTEED TO BE
THE COOLEST START TO JUNE IN 22 YEARS AT KIND WHEN THE MORNING LOW
WAS 39 DEGREES ON 6/1.
OTHER THAN THE CHILLY START...QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE REGION REMAINS FIRMLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EAST COAST UPPER
TROUGH. THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT FURTHER SOUTHWEST
AND WASH OUT...TAKING THE BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH IT AND OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING. SUBSIDENCE WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY BUT DRY AIR REMAINS IN ABUNDANCE
THROUGH THE COLUMN ENSURING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS. WINDS WILL BE NOTICEABLY LIGHTER
TODAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN AT 10MPH OR LESS
BECOMING LIGHT EASTERLY TONIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.
TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMALS SUPPORT HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S AIDED BY THE DRY
AIRMASS WHICH WILL BE EASILY WARMED. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO THE MID 50S IN THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2025
A SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY MEANDER EASTWARD MONDAY ONWARD BUT
LARGELY REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE OHIO VALLEY TO KEEP BROAD
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL BE FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A
VERY ELONGATED BUT STRONG RIDGE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST EARLY IN
THE WEEK. STARTING MONDAY, MODERATE 850-700MB WAA WITHIN
WESTERLIES WILL ALTER THE ONGOING AIRMASS, LEADING TO THE START OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS STRETCH OF
WARMER WEATHER WILL LARGELY CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK,
ALBEIT LESS AMPLIFIED LATE WEEK DUE TO GREATER CLOUD COVER. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK IS LIKELY TO BE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS NEARS AND THE SURFACE HIGH KEEPS SKIES CLEAR; THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST HIGH IS CURRENTLY 88 FOR INDIANAPOLIS. THAT SAID,
WEDNESDAY LIKELY WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST HEAT INDICES AS HIGHS
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S BUT WITH GREATER SURFACE DEWPOINTS.
AS MIDWEEK ARRIVES, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED ITS STRONG
VARIANCE, MOSTLY FOCUSED ON THE POSITIONS OF A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SE CONUS. IF THE HIGH IS ABLE TO MAINTAIN
ITSELF UPSTREAM OF A FEW PASSING SHORTWAVES, CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY OUTSIDE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND, IF THE SURFACE HIGH
DEPLETES AND ALLOWS GREATER MOISTURE ADVECTION AS IT LIFTS
EASTWARD, CENTRAL INDIANA WILL LIKELY SEE MULTIPLE PERIODS OF
RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS AND UPDATE THE FORECAST AS NEEDED; IN THE MEAN TIME,
PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS MOSTLY SPLIT WITH A 50% CHANCE OF RAINY
STRETCHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
AS MENTIONED BY LATE THURSDAY, THE CONTINUED PUSH OF UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING FROM THE WEST WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK DOWN THE SE SURFACE
HIGH, LEADING TO AN INCREASINGLY RAINY PERIOD. IT IS STILL TOO FAR
OUT TO PINPOINT ANY SPECIFICS, BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT MULTIPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN AND STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. AS OF THIS ISSUANCE, THIS IS CHARACTERIZED BY 20-40%
POPS THROUGHOUT THIS STRETCH, BUT THE LOWER PROBABILITIES ARE MORE
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING THAN UNCERTAINTY ON IF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR LATE NEXT WEEK.
DESPITE THE LOW CONFIDENCE NEAR THE TAIL END OF THE 7 DAY PERIOD,
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SEMBLANCE OF SIMILARITIES IN THE 8 TO 14
DAY GUIDANCE WITH MOSTLY WEAK TELECONNECTION PATTERNS, BUT A
STRONG AO. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY STRONG ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FOR THE SECOND WEEK OF JUNE. THESE SUMMER PATTERNS TYPICALLY
LEAD TO MOSTLY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, WITH PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES
ALONG SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW. GENERALLY, THESE PATTERNS
TEND TO BE MORE ACTIVE THAN TYPICAL, BUT WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE A
LARGE QPF FOOTPRINT WITHIN EACH WAVE.
AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2025
IMPACTS:
- NONE
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOME PASSING MID CLOUDS WILL BE NEAR KBMG TODAY, OTHERWISE A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND AT TIMES. THE SMOKE LAYER WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND WILL NOT IMPACT SURFACE VISIBILITY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10KT.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...50
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...UPDIKE
AVIATION...50
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