322
FXUS63 KIND 020218
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1018 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING HAZE NEAR THE SURFACE MONDAY FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES
- WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK
- PERIODIC STORM CHANCES SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1017 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2025
LITTLE TO NO CHANGES MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH THIS
EVENING'S UPDATE. THE MAIN FOCUS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE
INCREASED HAZE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. LATEST GUIDANCE FROM BOTH AMERICAN AND CANADIAN SMOKE MODELS
INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING SMOKE IN THE LOWER AND NEAR
SURFACE LEVELS, MAINLY LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA. WHILE THE THICKEST HAZE FROM SMOKE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST, ENOUGH MAY MAKE IT TO THE
SURFACE LOCALLY TO SOMEWHAT IMPACT VISIBILITY AT TIMES WITHIN THE
3PM TO 10PM TIMEFRAME. WITH THICKER HAZE, EXPECT A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN SURFACE HEATING, SO HAVE NUDGED TOMORROW'S HIGHS DOWN A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 RANGE.
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING IN WILL PROVIDE
QUIET WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE MOST PART. AN AREA OF MID
CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE, ONLY SOME PASSING CIRRUS AT
TIMES ARE EXPECTED IN TERMS OF CLOUDS.
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A HAZY LOOK TO
THE SKY, WITH THICKER SMOKE MOVING IN ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP SKIES THE
EQUIVALENT OF PARTLY CLOUDY FOR NOW, BUT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF
PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MOVE ON ON MONDAY WITH THE
THICKER SMOKE.
THE SMOKE SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED, WITH MODELS INDICATING THE HIGHER
NEAR SURFACE SMOKE REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DIP
INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. WILL LOWER GUIDANCE A BIT, ESPECIALLY IN
FAVORED COLD AREAS.
WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE LOWER
80S ON MONDAY. HOWEVER, IF SMOKE IS THICKER THAN EXPECTED, IT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2025
UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TUESDAY DRY AND
VERY WARM ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 80S WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. 90 DEGREES ISN'T OUT
OF THE QUESTION IN THE DRIER THAN NORMAL NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA,
ESPECIALLY IF DEWPOINTS REMAIN LOWER THAN EXPECTED.
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING A SURFACE COLD FRONT
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. QUESTIONS REMAIN THOUGH ON HOW FAST THIS WILL
HAPPEN, SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON POPS FOR WEDNESDAY.
UPPER FLOW WILL BE NEAR PARALLEL TO THE FRONT, SLOWING OR EVEN
STOPPING THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AS IT TRIES TO MOVE EAST. THIS
WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. ENSEMBLES SHOW THAT THURSDAY LOOKS TO HAVE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN, BUT OTHER THAN THAT, CONFIDENCE REMAINS
BELOW AVERAGE UNTIL THE POSITION OF THE FRONT BECOMES CLEARER.
THE FRONT MAY RETURN NORTH NEXT WEEKEND, KEEPING POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THEN.
WEDNESDAY STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE VERY WARM, ESPECIALLY IF THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS/RAIN REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION (00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2025
IMPACTS:
- INCREASING SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY INCREASE HAZE TOMORROW
DISCUSSION:
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS FOR ALL
OF CENTRAL INDIANA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE MAIN WEATHER
INFLUENCE. ONLY POTENTIAL AVIATION CONCERN IS THE INCREASING HAZE
TOMORROW DUE TO SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES, WHICH MAY CAUSE BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN SURFACE VISIBILITY. LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS THE THICKEST
NEAR SURFACE SMOKE FURTHER TO THE WEST IN ILLINOIS; HOWEVER STILL
EXPECT INCREASING HAZE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOCALLY. ADDED
A LINE FOR ALL TAF SITES FOR 6SM HZ AFTER 19Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
VISIBILITY SHOULD IMPROVE AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET.
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING SOUTHERLY LESS THAN 10 KTS TOMORROW.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...CM
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...CM
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