771
FXUS63 KIND 020632
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
232 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZY SKIES REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PROBABILITY OF SURFACE
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS THIS AFTERNOON
- WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- PERIODIC STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2025
A SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER EASTWARD TODAY, BUT REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE OHIO VALLEY TO KEEP BROAD SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL BE FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A VERY ELONGATED BUT
STRONG RIDGE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST. MODERATE 850-700MB WAA WITHIN
WESTERLIES TODAY WILL ALTER THE ONGOING AIRMASS, LEADING TO THE
START OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS STRETCH
OF WARMER WEATHER WILL LARGELY CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK,
ALBEIT LESS AMPLIFIED LATE WEEK DUE TO GREATER CLOUD COVER.
THE WAA TODAY WILL LARGELY BE DEPLETED OF ANY MOISTURE, KEEPING DEW
POINTS IN A SIMILAR PORTION DESPITE LARGE AMOUNTS OF WARMING. THE
RESULT WILL BE A VERY DRY TROPOSPHERE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AND
TOMORROW, WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS GREATER THAT 20C THROUGH THE
LOWEST 10KM. THUS RAIN, AND NON-SMOKE RELATED CLOUD COVER IS NOT
EXPECTED TODAY.
SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN WILD FIRES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ALOFT
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE TOTAL VOLUME OF SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TODAY AS WINDS SHIFT TOWARDS THE WEST. STILL, THIS WILL BE
AN INDIRECT PUSH OF SMOKE, OF WHICH WILL BE MIXED THROUGH A LARGER
COLUMN, AND THUS STILL MINIMAL IMPACTS DESPITE GREATER OVERALL
VOLUMES. THIS WILL STILL LEAD TO A PARTLY CLOUDY LOOK IN THE SKIES
TODAY, WITH BRIGHT RED SUNSETS/SUNRISES. IF CENTRAL INDIANA WERE TO
SEE BRIEF DETERIORATION OF AIR QUALITY/VISIBILITY, IT WOULD LIKELY
BE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN PBL MIXING IS MAXIMIZED.
WITH WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY TONIGHT, AND WAA REMAINING STRONG OUT
OF THE W/SW, OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL MUCH MORE SUMMER-LIKE,
ONLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S BY TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2025
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY WITH
WARMEST AIR IN A FEW WEEKS MAKING AN APPEARANCE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER LOW TRACKING WEST OF JAMES BAY HELPS IN
FLATTENING THE FLOW ALOFT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL TRANSITION INTO A ZONAL REGIME THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS FLAT RIDGING ALIGNS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND TEXAS EAST ALONG
THE GULF COAST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY BUT BECOME QUASISTATIONARY INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND BRINGING A PERIODIC CONVECTIVE THREAT.
QUASI-THE FRONT SHOULD BE FORCED FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND
BEFORE ONCE AGAIN RETURNING NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH THE RIDGE RETROGRADING
BACK TOWARDS BAJA CALIFORNIA.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY BUT REMAIN IN CLOSE ENOUGH
PROXIMITY TO MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS. THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND AID IN DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF THE DRY
AIRMASS. THE RESULT WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYTIME HIGHS SINCE MID MAY
FOR THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S.
THE FRONT WILL BECOME BOGGED DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AS IT RUNS INTO THE SURFACE
RIDGING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. BY WEDNESDAY HOWEVER...THE
BOUNDARY WILL INCH INTO THE REGION BUT IN A WEAKENED STATE AS IT
BECOMES INCREASINGLY PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE PRESENCE OF REMNANT DRY AIR
WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH ABOUT 700MB THAT WILL SERVE AS A
DETERRENT TO MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DESPITE MODEST
INSTABILITY BY WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT FROM SCATTERED
STORMS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH AMPLE
INSTABILITY PRESENT WITHIN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE.
THE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE REGION WITH
ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR CONVECTION LIKELY FOCUSED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT THEN AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MORE PLENTIFUL BY LATE WEEK WITH PWATS RISING
ABOVE 1.50 INCHES AND COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WAVES ALOFT
TRAVERSING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE AN OVERALL GREATER
COVERAGE TO CONVECTION. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN
RISKS AS THE FRONT GRADUALLY SAGS SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON WEDNESDAY THEN SLIDE
BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO ALIGN ON A BREAK IN THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND AS THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH AND
IS REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH. WILL MAINTAIN LOW
PRECIP CHANCES FOCUSED ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA HOWEVER WITH THE FRONT NEARBY OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. A SURFACE WAVE TRACKING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PULL
THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH INTO THE REGION BY LATE SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY INCREASING ONCE AGAIN.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S GRADUALLY WARMING IN
THE 8 TO 14 DAY RANGE.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2025
IMPACTS:
- NONE
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE MAIN WEATHER
INFLUENCE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
WITH SUBTLE CHANGES FROM SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY.
THE ONLY POTENTIAL AVIATION CONCERN AN IS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR
SLIGHT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO SMOKE FROM CANADIAN
WILDFIRES. LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS THE THICKEST NEAR SURFACE SMOKE
FURTHER TO THE WEST IN ILLINOIS, THEREFOR THE CURRENT EXPECTATION
IS FOR VISIBILITY TO REMAIN UNRESTRICTED, BUT THERE IS ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY FOR A MENTION IN THE DISCUSSION.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...UPDIKE
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...UPDIKE
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