497
FXUS63 KIND 021841
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
241 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZY SKIES REMAIN INTO TUESDAY
- WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- PERIODIC STORM CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
- POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY PM; ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, SEVERE HAIL, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
QUIET WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
ELEVATED SMOKE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WELL. SOME CIRRUS WILL PASS THROUGH FROM TIME TO TIME INTO THIS
EVENING. OVERNIGHT, SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA
AND BRING SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
THE MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, THEN, DEPENDING ON
HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE AREA ON SOUTHWEST FLOW,
SOME CUMULUS MAY POP AS WELL. THE RESULT OF THE PREVIOUS WILL BE
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY, THE INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY
CONDITIONS, WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS TONIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. WARM ADVECTION ON TUESDAY WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. WOULDN'T RULE OUT 90
DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN DRIER THAN
NORMAL FOR A WHILE.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2025
UPPER RIDGING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD EARLY IN THE EXTENDED WITH A MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. INITIALLY, AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. A NARROW BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
AND INCREASING DYNAMICS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS PM
SHOWERS OR STORMS WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE WEAKENING UPON APPROACH, BUT MODEST
STRENGTHENING OF MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS COULD
PROMOTE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, SEVERE HAIL, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
EXPECT THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ONCE MEAN FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY.
THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT TIMES THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TRACK ALONG
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. A LOW THREAT FOR MORE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE THIS WEEK AS EVEN DEEPER MOISTURE SURGES
NORTHWARD PROMOTING MODERATE INSTABILITY AT TIMES. THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS HOW MUCH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE PRESENT SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
ARE RATHER WEAK. THE FLOODING THREAT IS ALSO ELEVATED LATE THIS WEEK
AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF STORMS.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST CONVECTION ON FRIDAY SHOULD HELP TO SHUNT
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH PROVIDING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER, INCREASING MODEL
VARIABILITY BY THIS POINT LIMITS CONFIDENCE SO LOW POPS REMAIN,
PREDOMINATELY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA WHERE
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE LATE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER APPROACHING SYSTEM LIFTS THE FRONT
BACK NORTH. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE
TO SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISCREPANCIES. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ACTIVE SOMEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THOUGH WITH AN
ELEVATED FLOODING THREAT PERSISTING.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO START OFF VERY WARM EARLY IN THE PERIOD
THANKS TO ANTECEDENT RIDGING AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WEDNESDAY. FREQUENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION AND GREATER CLOUD COVER SHOULD THEN RETURN TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO SEASONAL LATE THIS WEEK.
AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2025
IMPACTS:
- SOME GUSTS OVER 20KT POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ELEVATED SMOKE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SITES. SOME CIRRUS WILL PASS
FROM TIME TO TIME INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING, SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 6000FT MAY MOVE
THROUGH.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 10KT OR LESS UNTIL LATER TUESDAY MORNING
INTO AFTERNOON. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, SOME GUST OVER 20KT ARE
POSSIBLE.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MELO
AVIATION...50
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