547
FXUS63 KIND 030944
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
544 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZY SKIES AGAIN TODAY
- HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TODAY AND TOMORROW
- PERIODIC STORM CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
THEN AGAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
- POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY PM AND AGAIN
FRIDAY PM; ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN ALL POSSIBLE
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2025
TODAY.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN US AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. THIS GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH WITH MUCH STRONGER
MOISTURE FLUX NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS MOISTURE FLUX WILL BRING
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WHICH COMBINED
WITH THE EXPECTED SUN AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WILL BRING AFTERNOON
HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS COULD SEE 90 ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN DRIER
BUT WITH THE CONTINUED SMOKE ALOFT, EXPECT THAT TEMPERATURES MAY BE
ON THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE. DIURNAL CU WILL ALSO GRADUALLY FILL IN
THE SKIES AND HELP TO LIMIT THE HIGHER END TEMPERATURES. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE ADVECTION OF SMOKE
ALOFT WITH GREATEST CONCENTRATION ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED WITH
LITTLE TO NO SURFACE IMPACTS.
TONIGHT.
A MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT WITH THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN GUSTS
EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END TOWARDS THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO DECOUPLE. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WITH THE RELATIVELY MILD DEW POINTS AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE LLJ STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASED SATURATION IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS AND BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH HELPING KICK THINGS OFF FOR THE MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED BELOW IN THE
LONG TERM SECTION.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2025
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW TRACKING WEST OF JAMES BAY HELPS IN FLATTENING THE FLOW ALOFT
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL ENABLE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY BUT BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW
ALOFT.
THE FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING ALOFT
RETROGRADES INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL REMAIN IN
CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO KEEP MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY DRY BACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT INCHING INTO THE
REGION IN A WEAKENED STATE AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW
ALOFT. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE PRESENCE OF REMNANT
DRY AIR WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH ABOUT 700MB WITH A
RESIDUAL CAPPING INVERSION THAT WILL SERVE AS A DETERRENT TO MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DESPITE MODEST INSTABILITY BY
WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT FROM SCATTERED STORMS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY PRESENT WITHIN THE
HAIL GROWTH ZONE. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY TRANSITION INTO A MESSY
MULTICELLULAR MODE BY THE EVENING WITH THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
DIMINISHING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL INCREASING AS PWATS RISE.
THE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE REGION WITH
ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR CONVECTION ON THURSDAY THEN AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RISE FOR LATE
WEEK WITH PWATS RISING TO 1.75 TO 2 INCHES AND COMBINED WITH A
SERIES OF WAVES ALOFT TRAVERSING THROUGH THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW SHOULD
PROVIDE AN OVERALL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. IT STILL APPEARS
THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN COMES LATE FRIDAY DESPITE GENERALLY POOR LAPSE RATES AND AN
OVERALL SATURATED COLUMN AS A STRONGER WAVE ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH THE
REGION. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL REMAIN A THREAT AS WELL WITH
THE DEEP INFLUX OF MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE...THE FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER BY SATURDAY MORNING.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON WEDNESDAY THEN SLIDE
BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO ALIGN ON A BREAK FOR RAIN AND STORMS
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH AND IS REPLACED BY
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WILL MAINTAIN LOW
PRECIP CHANCES FOCUSED ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA HOWEVER WITH THE FRONT NEARBY OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. CONVECTIVE CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S BEFORE GRADUALLY
WARMING IN THE 8 TO 14 DAY RANGE.
AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 544 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2025
IMPACTS:
- SOUTHERLY GUSTS 20-28KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL REMAIN
HAZY TODAY WITH SOME DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING BY THE LATE MORNING
HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GUST AS HIGH AS 28KTS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING TO AROUND 8-12KTS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. MARGINAL LLWS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A 40KT
LLJ AT 020, BUT THE SURFACE WINDS MAY REMAIN JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO
LIMIT THE IMPACTS. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 25KTS RETURN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION CHANCES INCREASING TOWARDS THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...WHITE
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...WHITE
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