291
FXUS63 KIND 032352
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
752 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZY SKIES CONTINUE TODAY AND POSSIBLY TOMORROW
- HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TODAY AND TOMORROW
- PERIODIC STORM CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
THEN AGAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
- POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY PM; ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALL
POSSIBLE
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2025
WARMTH, WINDS, AND HAZE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. UPPER RIDGING IS SLOWLY ON IT'S WAY OUT WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS HELPING TO BRING IN WAA AND HIGHS TODAY AND TOMORROW IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S. THE HAZE OVERHEAD FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE MAY
BE ENOUGH TO KEEP ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA FROM REACHING 90 DEGREE
TODAY, BUT STILL CAN'T RULE OUT THAT POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
CAUSING THE BREEZY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LARGELY CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW. GUSTS OF UP TO AROUND 30-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AND SLIGHTLY LOWER GUSTS AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SLOWLY MAKING IT'S WAY INTO THE
AREA WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NW
TO SW WITH THE FRONT STALLING AS IT ARRIVES. PRECIP COULD ARRIVE TO
THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AS LATE AS THE AFTERNOON. UPON ARRIVAL/INITIATION, THERE IS A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE STORMS AND COULD PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL. THIS THREAT IS PROMPTED BY WEAK TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MODERATE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE
LINE AS WELL AS WARM MOIST CONDITIONS AS DEW POINTS WILL BE
MOISTENING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE THREAT SHOULD BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AND NOTHING WIDESPREAD FOR OUR AREA IS EXPECTED...THE
THREAT WILL THEN WANE AS SUNSET NEARS.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2025
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS IT
BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT.
THE FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING ALOFT
RETROGRADES INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
THE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE REGION WITH
ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR CONVECTION ON THURSDAY THEN AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RISE FOR LATE
WEEK WITH PWATS RISING TO 1.75 TO 2 INCHES AND COMBINED WITH A
SERIES OF WAVES ALOFT TRAVERSING THROUGH THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW SHOULD
PROVIDE AN OVERALL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. STILL CAN'T RULE
OUT A POTENTIAL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS LATE
FRIDAY DESPITE GENERALLY POOR LAPSE RATES AND AN OVERALL SATURATED
COLUMN AS A STRONGER WAVE ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL REMAIN A THREAT AS WELL WITH THE DEEP INFLUX OF
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE, THE FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY SATURDAY
MORNING.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR 80 ON THURSDAY THEN SLIDE BACK TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS FOR FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S WITH
INCREASED CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO ALIGN ON A BREAK FOR RAIN AND STORMS
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH AND IS REPLACED BY
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WILL MAINTAIN LOW
PRECIP CHANCES FOCUSED ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA HOWEVER WITH THE FRONT NEARBY OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. CONVECTIVE CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S BEFORE GRADUALLY
WARMING IN THE 8 TO 14 DAY RANGE.
AVIATION (00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 752 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2025
IMPACTS:
- SOUTHERLY GUSTS 20-28KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON
- CONVECTION PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES REMAIN HAZY
TODAY AND TOMORROW FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE, WITH NO IMPACT TO
VIS EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE.
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 28KTS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS
MIXING AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DECREASE. LLWS DEVELOPS AT ALL
SITES OVERNIGHT AS A 40KT LLJ FROM 210 DEG INCREASES OVERHEAD.
SURFACE WINDS MAY REMAIN JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE IMPACTS.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A FEW GUSTS OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND WINDS ALOFT INCREASE, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
FREQUENT GUSTS IS LOW... SO FOR NOW WILL OMIT GUSTS FROM THE TAFS
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 25KTS
RETURN AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION ARRIVES FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON, FIRST IMPACTING KLAF AND KHUF. THUNDER IS LIKELY WITH
ANY PRECIPITATION AND WILL UPDATE THE TAF ACCORDINGLY TOMORROW WITH
SPECIFIC TIMING FOR THUNDER AND LIGHTNING. FOR NOW, PUTTING SHRA IN
THE TAF. THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION FOR IND AND BMG ARRIVE NEAR OR
AFTER 00Z TOMORROW EVENING, WITH THE THREAT PERSISTING THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...RYAN/KF
AVIATION...CM
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