470
FXUS63 KIND 192321
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
721 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THIS EVENING
- PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT
- HOTTEST CONDITIONS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTFUL HEAT AND
HUMIDITY
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2025
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...
SOME UPPER ENERGY IS CREATING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE FORCING MOVES SOUTHEAST IN THE UPPER
FLOW, THE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST WITH IT. WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS AROUND FOR THIS.
TONIGHT...
ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF UPPER FORCING WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FORCING FOR THIS WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA,
SO WILL HAVE SOME LOW POPS THERE THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE, CLOUDS WILL DECREASE, AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN. THIS MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. WILL THUS KEEP A MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S FOR LOWS.
FRIDAY...
CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WAVE IN
THE FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY, BUT BEST FORCING
WITH THAT WAVE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA. IN ADDITION,
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK
FORCING PLUS THE WARMING MID LEVELS SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW
ENOUGH TO NOT BE MENTIONED.
THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND FROM THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DURING THE DAY, BUT EVEN WITH THESE STILL
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO PEAK IN THE MIDDLE 80S MOST AREAS.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2025
..PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AN UPPER HIGH/RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND AND REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING WITH IT SUBSIDENCE
AND TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S. SOUTHWEST WINDS ON
THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN OF DEWPOINTS IN
THE 70S. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 DEGREES,
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MONDAY. GIVEN THE
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS, CAN'T ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT A POP UP
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IF THERE IS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBSIDENCE,
BUT FOR NOW ODDS REMAIN MUCH TOO LOW TO MENTION.
THE UPPER HIGH/RIDGE WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST INTO MID-WEEK NEXT
WEEK, AND THIS MAY JUST BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY. IF IT SLIDES FAR ENOUGH AWAY,
CONVECTION RIDING AROUND THE RIDGE COULD IMPACT PARTS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. EITHER WAY, WILL KEEP SOME POPS AROUND TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK, BUT
SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS MAY TEMPER IT A BIT BY NEXT THURSDAY.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN AROUND 90 INTO THE LOWER 90S.
THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF THESE CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A CUMULATIVE
EFFECT AND A HIGHER RISK FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE MORE VULNERABLE POPULATIONS. HEAT HEADLINES MAY BECOME
NECESSARY. REGARDLESS, THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE COMING
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, OR WITHOUT ACCESS TO ADEQUATE COOLING AND/OR
VULNERABILITY TO HEAT ILLNESS SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE
FORECAST AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION AS NECESSARY.
AVIATION (00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2025
IMPACTS:
- ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE NEAR IND/LAF THROUGH THIS
EVENING, BUT TOO LOW PROBABILITY FOR A MENTION
DISCUSSION:
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
ABOUT 02Z NEAR LAF/IND, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW FOR AN
EXPLICIT MENTION IN THE TAF.
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION GIVEN GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THOUGH VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE
UNLIKELY. WIND DIRECTION WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50/NIELD
AVIATION...MELO
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