083
FXUS63 KIND 230349
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1149 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
- HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 DEGREES AND LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
ABOVE 75 DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES MID-WEEK ONWARD
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 907 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2025
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST WITH CONDITIONS EVOLVING AS
EXPECTED. WITH TEMPERATURE BEGINNING TO FALL, THE GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH
ARE COMING TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF DEEPER MIXING. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF 5-10 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH HE NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S LOOK REASONABLE WITH CURRENT
DEW POINTS STILL IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
HREF FOG PROBABILITIES ARE NEAR 0 EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS SOUTHEASTERN
INDIANA WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO CALM COMBINED WITH
THE NEAR 0 DEW POINT DEPRESSION TOWARDS DAYBREAK TOMORROW. CHANCES
ARE STILL MINIMAL, BUT WORTH MENTIONING.
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2025
NEARLY A CARBON COPY DAY AS YESTERDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
SEASON'S FIRST HEAT WAVE PERSISTS. STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AND
MOIST AIR ADVECTION OFF THE GULF IS KEEPING THIS TROPICAL AIRMASS IN
PLACE WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN SIGHT.
OBSERVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON SHOW WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HEAT
INDICES ARE RANGING FROM THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S AS EXPECTED.
LITTLE RELIEF IN THE HEAT IS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
TEMPERATURES ONLY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. IN FACT, THE NEAR
RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE MORE HAZARDOUS TO SENSITIVE AND
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS DUE TO LACK OF ANY HEAT RELIEF. THEREFORE,
THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS
TEMPERATURES.
NEARLY THE SAME FORECAST AND ATMOSPHERIC SET UP EXPECTED FOR
TOMORROW.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2025
..PROLONGED HEAT AND HUMIDITY PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND
EXPECTATIONS FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK REMAIN ROUGHLY THE SAME AS THEY
HAVE BEEN FOR SEVERAL DAYS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN
THE PREDOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA, CENTERED EAST/SOUTHEAST OF
THE REGION RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS
HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR SENSITIVE AND VULNERABLE POPULATIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT LEAST IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID
90S, WITH PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES.
WHAT MAY BE EVEN MORE HAZARDOUS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME ARE THE NEAR
RECORD WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO POTENTIALLY UPPER 70S EACH
NIGHT.COULD AN ISOLATED LOCATION SEE A LOW TEMPERATURE OF 80 DEGREES
THIS WEEK?... IT CERTAINLY IS POSSIBLE. IT IS QUITE RARE FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA TO SEE NEARLY A WEEK OF LOW TEMPERATURES OF 75F+, THEREFORE
EXTENDING THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LACK
OF OVERNIGHT HEAT RELIEF.
THE RIDGE RETROGRADES BACK SOUTHWESTWARD A BIT ON TUESDAY, WHICH MAY
ALLOW FOR BOTH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR AND JUST AFTER PEAK
HEATING TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGHS REACH
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. THERE IS ALSO AN OUTSIDE POTENTIAL THAT
CONVECTION SPARKED UPSTREAM ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE SINKS INTO
THE REGION ON ANY INSTABILITY GRADIENTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO IS VERY LOW AT THIS POINT AS THESE
MESOSCALE FEATURES AND RESULTANT BOUNDARIES ARE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO
FORECAST THIS FAR OUT WITH LOW RESOLUTION MID TO LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE. WHILE THE THREAT FOR STORMS MAY IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES
OR KEEP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN FORECAST, ANY RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY MAKE THE HIGH HUMIDITY EVEN MORE OPPRESSIVE THAN IT ALREADY
IS WHILE KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS EVEN HIGHER. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
THE COVERAGE OF STORMS TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGHER CONFIDENCE
EXISTS THAT THE MAIN STORM TRACK WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH JUST POP UP DISCRETE
CELLS POSSIBLE LOCALLY. WITH VERY WEAK FORCING AND LITTLE TO NO
SHEAR, ANY STORM THAT DOES FORM WILL BE SHORT LIVED IN NATURE
PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL RAIN AND LIGHTNING.
THE MAIN THREAT THIS WEEK STILL REMAINS THE HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
THE FORECAST AND MESSAGING WILL BE UPDATED ACCORDINGLY ON THE
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM THREAT MIDWEEK. OVERALL, DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD STORMS OR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AND MANY LOCATIONS
MAY REMAIN DRY.
LOOKING OUT IN THE LONGER RANGE, IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT SIGNIFICANT
HEAT RELIEF WILL ARRIVE MUCH BEFORE NEXT WEEKEND, WHEN GUIDANCE
SHOWS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY BRINGING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO THE AREA.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2025
IMPACTS:
- NONE; VFR CONTINUES.
DISCUSSION:
INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY AND WARM COLUMN THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIKE
TODAY, A FEW ISOLATED CU WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-035>049-
051>057-060>065-067>072.
UPDATE...WHITE
SHORT TERM...CM
LONG TERM...CM
AVIATION...PUMA
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