001
FXUS63 KIND 240111
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
911 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- *HEAT ADVISORY* CONTINUES THROUGH LATE DAY FRIDAY
- HEAT INDICES OF 100-109 DEGREES AND LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE
75 DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORMS TUESDAY AND ONWARD,
WITH ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE TUESDAY PM NORTH OF I-70
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 909 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2025
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST WITH CONDITIONS EVOLVING AS
EXPECTED. WITH TEMPERATURE BEGINNING TO FALL, THE GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH
ARE COMING TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF DEEPER MIXING. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF 5-10 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH HE NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S LOOK REASONABLE WITH CURRENT
DEW POINTS STILL IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
LOCALIZED NON-DENSE FOG WAS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING
COMPARED TO MODEL GUIDANCE AND WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY
MORNING, EXPECT TO SEE SIMILAR COVERAGE.
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2025
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
HIGH HUMIDITY UNDER STRONG, BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS...WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD TEMPERATURES TO NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A VERY WARM
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL FEATURE READINGS FALLING THROUGH
THE 80S, BEFORE UPPER 70S PREVAIL DURING MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OCCASIONAL MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS WILL WANE THROUGH
DUSK, WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT BY LATE EVENING. DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW TO MID-70S WILL PROVIDE A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT, WITH
CORRESPONDING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 73-76 RANGE...ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED UPPER-70S MINIMUMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN URBAN AREAS.
HEAT INDICES SHOULD DROP TO THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE BY 800 PM EDT
...HOWEVER THE REAL-FEEL WILL UNFORTUNATELY STILL BE AROUND THE MID-
80S BY MIDNIGHT. ECHOING OBSERVED TEMPERATURES, MINIMUM HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL AGAIN ONLY FALL TO THE MID-70S. EXPECT ANOTHER PRE-DAWN
WITH A FEW PATCHES OF FOG CAUSING MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS...
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE DEWPOINTS MAY BE A DEGREE OR
TWO HIGHER, AND ALSO WHERE WINDS MAY GO CALM FOR A LONGER DURATION
LATE TONIGHT. ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT EXPECTED PER NO RAIN
SHOWERS TODAY CONTRIBUTING ANY MOISTURE.
TUESDAY...
THIS WEEK'S HEAT WAVE WILL PEAK FOR SOME LOCATIONS TUESDAY WHERE THE
GREATEST EXPANSE OF MID-90S IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS
OVERALL NEAR-CARBON COPY OF MONDAY'S HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
BRING LIGHTER SOUTHWEST BREEZES...WITH MANY SPOTS NEARING OR
REACHING THE 95F MARK, ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVER VALLEYS SOUTH OF I-70.
HEAT INDICES WILL PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 100S TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MOST OF THE REGION...WITH EVEN TYPICALLY COOLER SPOTS BETWEEN
CRAWFORDSVILLE AND THE WESTERN INDY METRO LIKELY ALSO SURPASSING THE
100-DEGREE REAL FEEL MARK.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS SHOULD ALSO REALIZE THE 1500-2500 J/KG
CAPE POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN THE HEAT WAVE...WITH A WEAK
STATIONARY BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE REGION PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT
TO PROBABLY GROW A FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS THAT COULD LEAD TO BRIEFLY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS, AND EVEN ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE STRONG GUSTS AROUND THE LATE DAY HOURS...
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-70.
HOOSIERS ARE REMINDED TO DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS, STAY IN AIR-
CONDITIONING WHEN POSSIBLE, LIMIT TIME OUTSIDE AND STAY OUT OF THE
SUN...AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2025
HEAT ADVISORY TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES NOT
FALLING BELOW MID-70S...TO AS HIGH AS 109 DEGREES.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM UNDER THE
BROAD SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL MAINTAIN ITS GRIP OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ANY WEAK
RIDGE-RIDING WAVES TO BE DIRECTED NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...
ALTHOUGH SUBTLE LIFT FROM A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES WILL PROMOTE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF I-70 BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
UPPER HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY BY THIS WEEKEND
WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE MORE REASONABLE MARGINAL HEAT AMID THE
CONTINUED HIGH HUMIDITY.
TEMPERATURES TO EXHIBIT SUBTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES...WITH HOTTEST
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID-WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON LOW TO MID-
90S THE RULE THROUGH THURSDAY...AND MAXIMUMS CLOSER TO 90F BY
SUNDAY. MORNING LOWS, GUIDED BY OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY, TO STAY NEAR
75 DEGREES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY, WITH HOPEFULLY A SMALL
IMPROVEMENT THIS WEEKEND AS A TOUCH OF THE NORTHERN STREAM ZONAL
FLOW GLIDES INTO THE REGION. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
RANGE FROM AROUND 75 DEGREES AT DAWN TO THE LOW TO MID-100S THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 90S
AND LOW 100S THIS WEEKEND. THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED HEAT ADVISORY
FOR ALL CENTRAL INDIANA ZONES THROUGH 800 PM EDT FRIDAY. HOOSIERS
ARE REMINDED TO DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS, STAY IN AIR-CONDITIONING
WHEN POSSIBLE, LIMIT TIME OUTSIDE AND STAY OUT OF THE SUN...AND
CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS.
POTENTIAL SCATTERED AFTERNOON/LATE-DAY CONVECTION MAY POTENTIALLY
MITIGATE HEAT FOR A FEW LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY
WHEN ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION'S
NORTHERN COUNTIES. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW THE SAME DIURNAL PATTERN (AMID NO/VERY LOW-SHEAR) AS ALL
OTHER DAYS THIS WEEK...WITH THE ONE WILD CARD BEING THE WEAK
BOUNDARY IN OUR NORTHERN VICINITY, WHOSE SUBTLE LIFT MAY COMBINE
WITH UPWARDS OF 2500 J/KG OF CAPE TO INITIATING AT LEAST ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE CWA'S NORTHERN COUNTIES. CANNOT RULE OUT A LONE
STRONGER CELL PRODUCING 40-50 MPH GUSTS, YET THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE
LOWER THAN TUESDAY. DAILY THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON/LATE-DAY
SHOWERS/TRWS, THAT COULD DISPLAY BRIEFLY SCATTERED COVERAGE, TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. EXPECT ANY RAIN TO
PROVIDE AN OVERALL NEGLIGIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO HEAT CONCERNS AS
DECREASED TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COUPLED WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASED
DEWPOINTS. THE NORMAL MAX/MIN AT INDIANAPOLIS THIS WEEK IS 84/65.
AVIATION (00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 655 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2025
IMPACTS:
- NONE.
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH CLEAR
SKIES OTHER THAN FEW TO POTENTIALLY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU AT
AROUND 040 TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS HAVE ALREADY SUBSIDED
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 5-10KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE MAY BE SOME LOWERED VSBYS WITH SHALLOW GROUND FOG TOWARDS
DAYBREAK TOMORROW, BUT VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT COVERAGE WILL
REMAIN MINIMAL. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR CONVECTION IS AT LAF WHERE A
PROB30 GROUP WILL BE MENTIONED.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-035>049-
051>057-060>065-067>072.
UPDATE...WHITE
SHORT TERM...AGM
LONG TERM...AGM
AVIATION...WHITE
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