381
FXUS63 KIND 241805
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- *HEAT ADVISORY* CONTINUES THROUGH LATE DAY FRIDAY
- HEAT INDICES OF 100-109 DEGREES AND LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE
75 DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY
- SCATTERED DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWERS/T-STORMS, ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 951 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2025
CENTRAL INDIANA IS ALREADY ON ITS WAY TO ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY
FOLLOWING ISOLATED EARLY VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS FROM PATCHY FOG...AND
A MORNING MINIMUM OF 77F AT INDIANAPOLIS, WHICH IS ONLY THE CITY'S
TENTH MORNING SO WARM SINCE 2012. LIGHT, GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE MAINTAINING LOW TO MID-70S DEWPOINTS...WHICH HAVE PROMOTED
TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE LOW TO MID-80S AS OF 900 AM EDT, AND
INDIANAPOLIS AGAIN HITTING ITS NORMAL MAX, 84F, BY 940 AM.
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT AS READINGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
AGAIN PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID-90S...WHICH, WHEN COUPLED WITH STAGNANT
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID-70S, WILL YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO
THE LOW TO MID-100S. IMPACTS WILL BE GREATEST IN URBAN AREAS WHERE
TEMPERATURES/HEAT INDICES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
CHANCES OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON WHEN AMPLE INSTABILITY'S POTENTIAL COULD BE
AT LEAST PARTIALLY-REALIZED, ESPECIALLY NEAR/NORTH OF I-70 LATER
TODAY COURTESY OF SUBTLE LIFT FROM A WEAK BOUNDARY ALIGNED JUST
NORTH OF THE LOCAL REGION. A FEW STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-55 MPH.
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2025
LATEST RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE AREA ARE
REPORTING MINIMAL VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED
FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP. THIS FOG WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT
AFTER DAYBREAK. EXPECT HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN TODAY
WITH UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEAT INDICES
REACH 100-105F BY THIS AFTERNOON. LITTLE TO NO RELIEF FROM
HUMIDITY THE PAST FEW NIGHTS SHOULD ALSO ENHANCE THE HEAT THREAT.
MAKE SURE TO TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO SPEND
TIME OUTDOORS. DRINK PLENTY OF WATER TO STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE
FREQUENT BREAKS IN AC OR SHADED AREAS. IT IS ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT
FOR HEAT VULNERABLE POPULATIONS TO LIMIT TIME OUTSIDE.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON WITHIN AN UNCAPPED UNSTABLE AIRMASS. VERY HOT/HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE STRONG INSTABILITY WHICH MAY SUPPORT A FEW
STRONG STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT HIGH DCAPE VALUES SUPPORTED
BY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. THIS SUGGEST A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DOWNBURSTS. STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN SUB-SEVERE, BUT
ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP ARE LIKELY GOING TO BE SHORT-LIVED DUE TO WEAK DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR. THIS FURTHER ENHANCES THE DOWNBURST THREAT AS COLLAPSING
CORES RESULT IN STRONGER NEGATIVE BUOYANCY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LIGHTNING ARE ALSO THREATS.
LATEST CAMS SUGGEST A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ONGOING UPSTREAM
CONVECTION WILL ALSO HELP TO FIRE UP STORMS LATER TODAY. THIS
BOUNDARY COULD CONTINUE TO INITIATE CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT AS
WARM-UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW-
MID 90S TODAY WITH LOWS IN THE 70S AGAIN TONIGHT. ISOLATED DIURNAL
CONVECTION MAY PROVIDE SOME SLIGHT RELIEF FROM THE HEAT, BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE HUMIDITY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ONCE WINDS BECOME VERY LIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN
ANY AREAS THAT SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2025
HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY -
MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED RIDGING
REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING INTO ONTARIO THROUGH THURSDAY. AGAIN, THIS WILL RESULT IN
THE CONTINUED WEATHER PATTERN THAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE KEEP CENTRAL INDIANA WITHIN A HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THESE DAYS BOTH SHOW AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND
CAPE AVAILABLE, BUT 700MB TEMPS REMAIN AROUND 10C. THIS CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. HRRR SUGGESTS ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY, AND GIVEN THE LITTLE OVERALL
CHANGE IN AIRMASS AND PATTERN, SMALL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS APPEAR PRUDENT AT THIS JUNCTURE IN TIME.
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WILL ONCE AGAIN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
RELIEF TO ANYONE WHO DOES GET A SHORT LIVED SHOWER OR STORM.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY -
MODELS ARE STILL CONSISTENT HERE, SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGING TO THE
NORTH PUSHING EAST, AND A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. AGAIN, THIS WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY
OF FORCING FEATURES WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA. MEANWHILE WITHIN
THE LOWER LEVELS, HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A HOT AND HUMID FLOW INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA. THIS LACK OF A CHANGE IN AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AND LOW TO MID POPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE NEEDED. SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SUBSIDENCE WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS
DAYS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES,
ALBEIT CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE HOT...WITH HIGHS NEAR 90.
MONDAY -
MODELS SHOW ON MONDAY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW TO
THE NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW OF FIRST TASTE OF UPPER FORCING
PUSHING TOWARD CENTRAL INDIANA, INTERACTING WITH OUR HOT AND HUMID
AIR MASS. WITHIN THE LOWER LEVELS A POORLY DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL
BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THUS ONCE AGAIN,
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE STORMS WILL BE NEEDED, PARTICULARLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90.
AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2025
IMPACTS:
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING, BEST CHANCE
NEAR LAF AND HUF
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD ALTHOUGH
BRIEF DROP TO MVFR VISIBILITY MAY OCCUR WITHIN SHOWERS. SCT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU HAS DEVELOPED AND SHOULD INTO THE EVENING. BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR LAF AND POSSIBLY HUF, BUT KEPT
THUNDER MENTION TO TEMPO GROUPS AS IT WILL LIKELY NOT BE THE
PREDOMINANT WEATHER.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 7-10 KTS THIS EVENING WHICH WILL DECREASE
TO LESS THAN 5 KTS OVERNIGHT. DIRECTION MAY BECOME VARIABLE AT TIMES
TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW TO AROUND 7-
10 KTS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT, BUT THIS WAS NOT
EXPLICITLY MENTIONED IN THE TAF DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-035>049-
051>057-060>065-067>072.
UPDATE...AGM
SHORT TERM...MELO
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...KF
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