741
FXUS63 KIND 300703
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
303 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN/STORM CHANCES PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
- ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING
- DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THIS
WEEK BEFORE MORE HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT..
EXPECT AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AS A
FEW UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH. DEEP MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE
SHOULD ALSO PROVIDE FUEL FOR PRECIPITATION AND KEEP HUMIDITY
ELEVATED. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE IS ALREADY MOVING INTO THE REGION
THIS MORNING WHICH IS HELPING TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS, PREDOMINATELY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA AT THIS TIME.
EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES COMBINED WITH TRAINING STORMS HAS LED TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THIS IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS STORMS LIKELY CONTINUE TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS.
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE DEPARTS. THERE
COULD BE A PERIOD OF LOWER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FROM AROUND THE MID-
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING ONCE THE WAVE MOVES EAST AND
OVERALL FORCING BECOMES WEAKER. THE PRIMARY WAVE WHICH WILL PUSH A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TONIGHT
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH BOTH UPPER LEVEL
WAVES MOVING THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH PWATS AND WARM RAIN PROCESSES
PROMOTE EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES. DAMP OR SOGGY SOILS OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA FROM RECENT RAINFALL COULD ALSO LEAD TO
QUICKER ONSET OF FLASH FLOODING. THANKFULLY, STORMS WILL BE MOVING
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN YESTERDAY IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING FLOW
ALOFT. WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER, MODERATE DESTABILIZATION AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH ANY LOOSELY
ORGANIZED STORMS.
THE SECOND UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO
SHIFT EAST LATE TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO
EAST. LOOK FOR POPS TO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE COLD FRONT
MAY NOT COMPLETELY PUSH THROUGH UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT HIGHS
TO GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TODAY WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID 60S TO
NEAR 70F TONIGHT.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
OVERALL FORECAST THOUGHTS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAIN LARGELY THE
SAME SO AN UPDATE TO THE DISCUSSION WAS NOT WARRANTED. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE
FORECAST...
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK WILL SHIFT
EAST TUESDAY MORNING AS A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS BUILDS
IN COURTESY OF BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL RETURN BY LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A
LIKELY RETURN TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A HOTTER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS REESTABLISHES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY..
OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING...MOSTLY QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL FINALLY FALL BACK
INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S AND PERHAPS EVEN DOWN INTO THE UPPER
50S IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR MIDWEEK...A
REFRESHING RESPITE FROM THE OPPRESSIVE AIR OF THE LAST WEEK OR SO.
WHILE LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONT DRIFTS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. HIGHS
WILL MAINLY RESIDE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE BEGINNING TO RISE ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE ARRIVAL OF RIDGING ALOFT COINCIDING WITH A WEAKENING OF THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL ENABLE DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT BACK INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY FOR LATE WEEK WITH GROWING CONFIDENCE IN HIGHER DEWPOINT
AIR AT OR ABOVE 70 DEGREES MAKING A RETURN FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PULSE INTENSITY...SHORT LIVED AND SLOW MOVING CONVECTION
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ...MAINLY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LATE NEXT
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SIGNALS IN THE ENSEMBLES FOR A
COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL
RISE BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH HEAT INDICES
AGAIN APPROACHING 100 DEGREES.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
IMPACTS:
- CONVECTION AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, WITH MOST COVERAGE
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND THEN AGAIN ON LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING
- PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK
- MVFR CEILINGS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING
DISCUSSION:
SCATTERED CONVECTION NOW LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY MONDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE MUCH MORE COMMON
THAN THUNDER WITH THIS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A POTENTIAL LULL IN THE
CONVECTION EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON MONDAY BEFORE MORE CONVECTION
DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST. MVFR AND WORSE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
CONVECTION.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING. IFR CEILINGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AROUND
SUNRISE. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE AS WELL OVERNIGHT.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MELO
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...50
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page