875  
FXUS63 KIND 030659  
AFDIND  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN  
259 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- WARMING TREND BACK TO THE LOW 90S BY FRIDAY  
 
- HEAT INDICES MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND.  
 
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST  
SUNDAY.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
 
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2025  
 
A TYPICAL MIDSUMMER WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS  
WITH RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING THE DOMINANT WEATHER  
FEATURES LOCALLY. LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AS  
EACH DAY THIS WEEK WILL HAVE VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THE PREVIOUS  
ONE. MAIN RIDGE AXIS IS STILL TO THE WEST OF INDIANA TODAY, KEEPING  
THE CORE OF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY OVER THE PLAINS. SUBSIDENCE FROM  
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT KEEPS LARGE SCALE SYSTEMS AND PRECIPITATION AWAY  
FROM THE AREA FOR THE MOST PART. A WEAK UPPER SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH  
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS MORNING MAY RESULT IN REMNANT BOUNDARIES  
SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA THIS  
AFTERNOON. BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE DISPLACED WELL TO THE  
NORTH AND EAST AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, THESE REMNANT  
BOUNDARIES LIKELY WON'T HAVE MUCH IMPACTS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE  
(LESS THAN 20% CHANCE) OF AN ISOLATED POP UP SHOWER OR STORM NORTH  
OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR DURING PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY AS THE OVERALL  
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON; HOWEVER WITH LITTLE  
FORCING AND NO SHEAR, NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING ORGANIZED TO DEVELOP.  
THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL STAY HOT AND DRY TODAY, BUT IT IS  
WORTH MENTIONING THE POSSIBILITY OF A ROGUE SHOWER OR STORM THIS  
AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN THAT, THE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS HIGHS IN UPPER  
80S ONCE AGAIN TODAY, LIKELY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.  
 
OVERNIGHT LOWS START WARMING BACK UP AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW  
70S AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AS RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE  
EASTWARD.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
 
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2025  
 
ANOTHER STRETCH OF SUMMERTIME HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR  
ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA. WHILE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS  
OPPRESSIVE AS THEY WERE LAST WEEK, BOTH HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES  
WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STORM CHANCES  
INCREASE SUNDAY AND INTO THE NEXT WEEK.  
 
STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES  
EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WARMING AND MOISTENING  
TREND AS THE CORE OF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY PUSH CLOSER TO THE STATE.  
EXPECT EACH DAY TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND MORE HUMID THAN THE  
PREVIOUS DAY IN THIS PATTERN WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 90S FOR  
THE 4TH OF JULY AND THIS WEEKEND. DEW POINTS MAY REACH OR EXCEED 70  
DEGREES AGAIN, ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY, RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES  
APPROACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  
 
LARGE-SCALE RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH  
GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY TO SHOW A WEAK TROUGH AND COLD FRONT  
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE TODAY HAS  
CONTINUED THE TREND OF SLOWING DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A  
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE UPPER  
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND, KEEPING CONDITIONS RELATIVELY HOT AND DRY  
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SUNDAY. IN THESE LARGE  
SCALE BLOCKING PATTERNS, IT IS COMMON FOR LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE TO  
STRUGGLING WITH HOW RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AND TYPICALLY TRIES TO BRING  
IN PRECIPITATION TOO SOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE FUTURE  
MODEL RUNS FURTHER SLOW DOWN THE INCOMING TROUGH AND FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY. KEEPING A CHANCE FOR STORMS IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY AND WILL FINE TUNE POPS AND EXACT TIMING OF  
THE GREATEST STORM THREAT AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THE COMING  
DAYS.  
 
THE PATTERN GOING INTO NEXT WEEK LOOKS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR JULY WITH  
HIGHS IN THE 80S, HUMID CONDITIONS, AND ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES.  
KEEPING A CHANCE OF STORMS IN FOR MONDAY AS THERE IS LOWER  
CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL PASSAGE.  
TUESDAY COULD POTENTIALLY BE THE DRIEST DAY NEXT WEEK AS LONGER  
RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES INDICATE A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SETTING  
UP MID NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND WITH MORE FREQUENT PRECIPITATION  
CHANCES... YET STILL WARM AND HUMID.  
 
 
   
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)  
 
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2025  
 
IMPACTS:  
 
- VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
DISCUSSION:  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DIURNAL CUMULUS  
AROUND 5000FT AGL SHOULD REDEVELOP BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY  
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE (20 PERCENT OR  
LESS) OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON THURSDAY, MAINLY FROM LAF TO  
IND. THE LIKELIHOOD OF THIS OCCURRING IS LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE  
MENTION IN THE TAFS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT REMAIN LIGHT  
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OUT OF THE WEST.  
 
 
   
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...CM  
LONG TERM...CM  
AVIATION...CM  
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab IN Page
Main Text Page