653
FXUS63 KIND 050056
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
856 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT INDICES MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST
SUNDAY, THEN DAILY STORM CHANCES PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 856 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
A FEW VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED THIS EVENING BETWEEN ANDERSON
AND MUNCIE, SO THE MENTION OF SPRINKLES HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS ALREADY
SHOW THIS ACTIVITY TO BE DIMINISHING.
OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED AS MOST PLACES ARE DRY AND MAINLY
CLEAR. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE EFFICIENT THIS EVENING AND WE
STEEPENED THE TEMPERATURE DROP AFTER SUNSET A BIT. SOME PATCHY FOG
MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVERS AND IN AGRICULTURAL
AREAS.
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...
CIRRUS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS, ALONG WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS. THE CIRRUS
SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN SOME. OVERALL, SKIES WILL AVERAGE PARTLY
CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 90 DEGREES.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT ON A LAKE ENHANCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA, WHICH HAS SPARKED ISOLATED CONVECTION AS IT
PASSES. LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT STALL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA OR WEAKEN
ENOUGH THAT CONVECTION WILL NOT OCCUR HERE.
TONIGHT...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY, BUT
SOME CIRRUS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING. SKIES WILL AVERAGE OUT
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT THOUGH.
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH LIGHT
WINDS.
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE IN SOME AREAS WITH
THE HUMID CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 70 DEGREES.
SATURDAY...
THE SURFACE AND UPPER HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RULE ON SATURDAY. WARM
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD HELP KEEP ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM
POPPING UP.
CIRRUS AND SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL BE AROUND, BUT AT THE MOMENT
BELIEVE THEY WON'T BE ENOUGH TO STOP TEMPERATURES FROM PEAKING IN
THE LOWER 90S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
THE STRETCH OF HOT JULY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH THE
AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE STILL OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY HOWEVER AS THE POLAR
JET SINKS SOUTHWARD ENOUGH FOR A MODEST MID LEVEL TROUGH TO PUSH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES CREATING QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. THIS ZONAL FLOW WILL
HAVE A SEASONABLY STRONG JET STREAK ATTACHED, OF WHICH COULD LEAD TO
SOME LOW LEVEL PRESSURE DEPLETION AND ACCOMPANIED SHOWERS/STORMS.
THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION IS ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
GENERALLY CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR TO JUST ABOVE SEASONAL IN THE WAKE
OF THE WEEKEND RIDGE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THAT SAID, TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO VARY DEPENDING ON
WHERE GREATEST CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER AND EVAPORATIONAL COOLING
OCCURS.
BY MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK, UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY.
THIS IS MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE EMERGENCE OF A GULF LOW PUSHING
WESTWARD. AS THIS WARM CORE REACHES TEXAS, THE UPSTREAM IMPACTS
COULD RESULT IN GREATER RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS (DEPENDING ON
STRENGTH OF THE WARM CORE) AND THEREFOR STRONGER NW FLOW OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. IN THIS SCENARIO, GREATER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS COULD
ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION LATER IN THE WEEK. AS
STATED, THERE IS STILL HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN ANY LONG RANGE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THUNDERSTORM
TRENDS FOR LATER NEXT WEEK IN THE COMING DAYS. REGARDLESS OF LARGER
SCALE CONVECTION, ENSEMBLE SYNOPTIC SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION (00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
IMPACTS:
- BRIEF GROUND FOG POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR SOME
POSSIBLE BRIEF MORNING FOG.
CUMULUS IS SLOWLY DIMINISHING AND WILL BE GONE BY 02Z ACROSS
INDIANA. EXPECT ONLY SOME HIGH CIRRUS THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE
CUMULUS REDEVELOPS LATE IN THE MORNING ON SATURDAY.
SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, AND IS A
FAIRLY LOW-PROBABILITY SCENARIO. WE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP TO COVER
THIS AT THE TYPICAL FOG-PRONE TERMINALS.
WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ECKHOFF
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...UPDIKE
AVIATION...ECKHOFF
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