841
FXUS63 KIND 051842
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
242 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
- HEAT INDICES MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ON SUNDAY.
- DAILY SHOWER/T-STORM CHANCES PERSIST NEXT WEEK...AMID HUMID AND
VERY WARM TO MARGINALLY HOT CONDITIONS
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WAS RESULTING IN WARM AND HUMID
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. LOW PRESSURE WAS
FOUND WEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT
STRETCHED TO NB AND KS. GOES16 SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE FOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OVER MO AND AND IA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
TONIGHT...
THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CONTROL
OF OUR WEATHER. THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST WILL NUDGE TOWARD CENTRAL
INDIANA, BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN OVERNIGHT. UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALSO DEPART TO THE EAST, BUT THIS
WILL NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT. THUS EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR THIS EVENING
WITH DIURNAL HEATING LOSS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN VERY CLOSE
TO PERSISTENCE GIVEN THE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS.
SUNDAY...
SUNDAY WILL BEGIN LIKE MANY OF THE PAST FEW DAYS, MOSTLY CLEAR,
HUMID AND WARM. HOWEVER, BY MID AFTERNOON THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
COLD FRONT WILL BE EDGING CLOSER TO CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS ALONG WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT. SEVERAL
FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST VARIOUS AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW STEEP LAPSE
RATES WITH CAPE OVER 1900 J/KG AVAILABLE. THUS SOME SCT AFTERNOON
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NW
PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA, INCLUDING ATTICA, LAFAYETTE AND TERRE
HAUTE AS THEIR LOCATION WILL BE CLOSEST THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
OVERALL WILL INCLUDE A DRY FORECAST IN THE AM, AND WILL RAMP UP POPS
BY LATE AFTERNOON TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE
HIGH POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. GIVEN THE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL AIRMASS, WILL TREND HIGHS TOWARD PERSISTENCE IN THE LOWER
90S.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
FOLLOWING THE HOTTER WEEKEND/SHORT TERM...GENERALLY SEASONABLE
MIDSUMMER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE
NEXT WORKWEEK...CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH HUMIDITY, VERY WARM TO
OCCASIONALLY MARGINALLY HOT READINGS...AND NEAR-DAILY CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED, QUASI-DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN SHOULD THANKFULLY BE FREE OF ANY ESTABLISHED BROAD/AMPLIFIED
SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE NEAR INDIANA...ALTHOUGH THE H500 RIDGE WILL
BE STRENGTHENING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE
CANADIAN PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK. THIS SHOULD STEER SEVERAL
VERY SMALL DISTURBANCES FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE
MIDWEST.
THESE FEW ROUNDS OF WEAK LIFT WILL COMBINE WITH AMPLE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 2.00 INCHES THROUGH THE MID-WEEK... TO BRING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED BY
CAPE PEAKING NEAR THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. SEVERE STORMS SO FAR APPEAR UNLIKELY FOR MOST DAYS GIVEN
THE LACK OF SUBSTANTIVE WIND SHEAR...ALTHOUGH A SMALL, YET BETTER-
ORGANIZED WAVE AROUND THE WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME WOULD PROBABLY BRING
THE BEST CHANCES FOR TALLER/STRONGER STORMS. THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
UNDULATION MAY ALLOW A SUBTLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN
MIDWEST INTO THE THURSDAY TIMEFRAME...ALBEIT WITH A CONTINUATION OF
NEAR-70 DEWPOINTS. PERHAPS LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN LASTING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK WITH ANY WEAK BOUNDARY FOLLOWING THE MID-
WEEK WAVE LIKELY ALIGNED CLOSER TO THE OHIO VALLEY
A POTENTIALLY STRONGER H500 SHORT WAVE WILL TWIST FROM THE DAKOTAS
TO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM. WHILE MOST
OF THIS ENERGY WOULD LIKELY STAY WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL REGION
GIVEN THE SUMMERY, RETRACTED PATTERN...ANY ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE MIDWEST WOULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER RAIN
CHANCES AND STRONGER STORMS. INDIANAPOLIS' ANNUAL PEAK IN NORMAL
MAX/MIN VALUES OCCURS JULY 8-22...85/67.
AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
IMPACTS:
- VFR EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD
DISCUSSION:
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, DIURNAL CU HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA, RESULTING IN VFR SCT-BKN SKIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
AN INVERSION WITHIN THE MID LEVELS, THUS DEEP CU GROWTH IS NOT
EXPECTED. HRRR FAILED TO SHOW ANY ISOLATED SHOWER/TSRA COVERAGE
ALSO. THUS WE WILL JUST EXPECT THESE CU CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING AND CU DEVELOPMENT
AGAIN ON LATE SUNDAY MORNING AS HEATING RESUMES.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...AGM
AVIATION...PUMA
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