704
FXUS63 KIND 100205
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1005 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY, WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS PERSISTING
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1004 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE NEEDED.
LOWS NEAR 70 ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT THE FORMATION OF
PATCHY FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, BUT THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE AS WINDS SHOULD STAY JUST HIGH ENOUGH AND DEW POINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALSO
HELP PREVENT SATURATION AND MUCH FOG FORMATION.
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST, ALONG WITH A CUMULUS
FIELD.
TONIGHT...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. THE CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE
CIRRUS FROM CONVECTION WELL TO THE WEST WILL BE KEPT WEST OF THE
AREA, SO SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG TO FORM.
HOWEVER, SINCE NOT MUCH FORMED THIS MORNING, FEEL THAT COVERAGE WILL
NOT BE ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70.
SUNDAY...
SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN THE AREA. CUMULUS WILL POP UP ONCE AGAIN AND SOME CIRRUS
WILL WORK INTO WESTERN AREAS.
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME OF THE
CUMULUS TO GROW INTO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS, MAINLY SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER, AT THE MOMENT, FEEL THAT COVERAGE WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO NOT
MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 90 ONCE AGAIN.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
WARM (HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90) AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN MOST
DAYS. MAIN THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
MONDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
INCH CLOSER TO THE AREA, AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT.
THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TO FORM IN MAINLY
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. FORCING
FROM THIS WILL WORK WITH THE HUMID AIRMASS TO PRODUCE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY
THE UPPER TROUGH. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE TIMING OF THE BEST
FORCING, BUT THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
AFTERNOONS WHEN INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES INVOLVED, WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR MOST AREAS.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND...
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL DURING THIS PERIOD, BUT MODELS DISAGREE
ON WHETHER SOME WEAKER UPPER TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW.
WILL KEEP SOME BROAD MAINLY LOWER END CHANCE CATEGORY POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY AND ANY AFTERNOON POP UP CONVECTION.
AVIATION (00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
IMPACTS:
- NONE
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE SOUTHERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH TOMORROW. AFTERNOON CU IS
AGAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR TWO BUT LIKELIHOOD IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
ALSO CAN'T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT AT ALL BUT KIND,
BUT CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANYTHING BELOW VFR AT
THIS TIME.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...KF
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...KF
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