396
FXUS63 KIND 130659
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
259 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE MIXING OUT LATER
THIS MORNING, LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE
- ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY, PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
- HOT AND HUMID FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES
NEAR OR EXCEED 100 AT TIMES LIKELY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2025
PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS FORCING FROM
A PASSING SHORTWAVE HAS SHIFTED EAST. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER
WINDS ALONG WITH EARLIER RAINFALL WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT. SOME LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY REPORTING MINOR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG, ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
FELL. A LOW STRATUS DECK IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WHICH COULD
HELP LOCALLY DENSE FOG LINGER LONGER DURING THE MORNING BEFORE
DAYTIME HEATING EVENTUALLY MIXES IT OUT.
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL HELP TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR OUT CLOUDS. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE DEPICTS WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY AND SUFFICIENT PBL MOISTURE IN PLACE.
THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS, PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY IS ONLY
EXPECTED TO MAKE SLIGHT SOUTHWARD PROGRESS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE COULD BE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS, BUT VERY WEAK FORCING LIMITS CONFIDENCE GREATLY. WILL
KEEP A DRY FORECAST TONIGHT FOR NOW.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS WINDS
BECOME VERY LIGHT. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD
MOSTLY LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL THOUGH. LOOK FOR NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW
AND SCT-BKN CLOUDS TO HELP KEEP HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE 80S.
LOWERING DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2025
AFTER A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY ON THURSDAY...THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
RETURN BEGINNING FRIDAY AND PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DEEP
RIDGING ALOFT CENTERS OVER THE REGION. LITTLE TO NO THREAT FOR
CONVECTION WILL EXIST FRIDAY INTO MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE THE
EASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND PRESENCE OF A
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL CAP. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BEYOND EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A DEVELOPING BLOCKY PATTERN ALOFT WITH
UPPER TROUGHS ON THE COASTS AND RIDGING REFOCUSING OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS TROPICAL STORM ERIN MOVES TOWARDS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
BASIN AS A HURRICANE. A DEEPENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES COULD ESSENTIALLY FORCE A RETROGRADE TO THE
RIDGING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD BRING AN END TO THE
UPCOMING HEAT WAVE.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY WITH INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN. THE
PRESENCE OF A WAVY UPPER FLOW REGIME HOWEVER COULD PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT TO GENERATE A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON DESPITE THE
INITIAL SURGE OF WARMING ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO THE ONSET OF CAPPING
IN THE MID LEVELS. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING.
THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL U S WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD SHIFT
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY...BRINGING MULTIPLE DAYS OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THAT COULD RIVAL THE LATE JULY HEAT WAVE IN TERMS OF TEMPS
AND HEAT INDICES. HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER AND MID 90S BY THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DEWPOINTS RECOVERING INTO THE 70S.
PEAK HEAT INDICES IN THE AFTERNOONS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL
RISE INTO THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP UNDER THE CORE OF THE
RIDGE...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LARGELY MITIGATED FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST LIMITED TO PEAK
HEATING HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEGINNING NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THE POTENTIAL RETROGRADE OF THE RIDGE INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WOULD ALLOW FOR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH
FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND WOULD LIKELY BRING AN END TO THE
MULTI-DAY HEAT WAVE UPCOMING FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ERIN REMAINS A WILDCARD AS ITS LOCATION AND STRENGTH IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BASIN NEXT WEEK COULD DELAY ANY SUBSTANTIAL PATTERN CHANGES
BEYOND WHAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2025
IMPACTS:
- FOG LIKELY TO DEVELOP AFTER 08Z WITH THE GREATEST IMPACTS NEAR
HUF/BMG WHERE LIFR OR WORSE VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE
- BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK
DISCUSSION:
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHTER WINDS ALONG WITH EARLIER RAINFALL WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER 08Z FOR MOST SITES. THE WORST IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED NEAR HUF/BMG WHERE LIFR OR WORSE VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE
FROM 09-13Z. MVFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR MOST SITES.
CANNOT RULE OUT IFR CEILINGS BRIEFLY AT HUF/BMG. FOG WILL THEN
BURN OFF AFTER DAYBREAK AS HEATING RETURNS AND CONDITIONS
EVENTUALLY RETURN TO VFR.
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR AN EXPLICIT MENTION. WINDS WILL VEER
THROUGH THE PERIOD BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY LATER TODAY AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHERLY BY TONIGHT. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT BELOW 10KTS.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MELO
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...MELO
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