014
FXUS63 KIND 080132
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
932 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND COOLER THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S
- WARMING TREND BACK TO THE 80S BY MID TO LATE WEEK AND BEYOND
- NO CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 931 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS HAVE DISSIPATED, AND
WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF THIS EVENING. WITH A CONTINUED DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE, THESE CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL VERY
QUICKLY ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
ISOLATED STRATOCU AND A FEW CIRRUS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT,
BUT CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
IN, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. GIVEN HOW TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY
RESPONDED, WENT AHEAD AND NUDGED DOWN LOW TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW FAVORED COLD AREAS IN THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA BRIEFLY SLIPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
BEAUTIFUL AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND A COMFORTABLE BUT COOL NORTHWEST WIND. 18Z
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.
MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY REMAINS FIRMLY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY. THIS
FEATURE IS MOST RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ALOFT. THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY
SHIFT EAST INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY RESULTING IN A
TRANSITION TO A QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ADVECTING
NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE MONDAY SIGNALING THE ONSET OF A WARMING TREND
THAT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S BY LATE
WEEK.
QUIET WEATHER IS THE RULE OVER THE SHORT TERM. DIURNAL CU IS MORE
MUTED THAN SATURDAY WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN.
GREATEST COVERAGE IS ACROSS NORTHEAST COUNTIES IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY
TO THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS OHIO. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS UP
TO AROUND 20MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE DAY THEN CU AND WINDS
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE COOLEST
NIGHT OF THIS STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH RESIDES
OVER THE REGION. DRY AIR AND DEEPER SUBSIDENCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO E/SE WITH LITTLE CU
DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED.
TEMPS...LOW TO MID 40S ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME OF THE TYPICAL COOL LOCALES OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES TO DIP INTO
THE UPPER 30S. LOCALIZED FROST IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN SOME OF
THESE AREAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOW AND MID
70S.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
A VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD HIGHLIGHTED BY SUNNY WARM DAYS AND COMFORTABLE
NIGHTS. THE UPPER TROUGH PROVIDING THE UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER
THIS WEEKEND WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM AND BE REPLACED BY MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BY AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES THEN UPPER RIDGING BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
RETURN TO MORE SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND COMMENCES TUESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING
OFF TO THE EAST AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE IN TANDEM WITH A STEADY
RECOVERY IN MID LEVEL HEIGHTS SUPPORT THE ONSET OF THE WARMING TREND
THAT WILL BRING DAYTIME HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID 80S BY LATE WEEK AND
POTENTIALLY PROVIDE THE WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SINCE
AUGUST 19. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE LARGE DIURNAL RANGES AS
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALL AFTER SUNSET...POSSIBLY AS GREAT AS 35
DEGREES BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUES TO SUPPORT WARM AND
DRY WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH NO SIGN OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR RAINFALL UNTIL PERHAPS THE WEEKEND OF
SEPTEMBER 20-21. HIGHS WILL BE CONSISTENTLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE DAYS AT OR ABOVE 90
APPEARS TO BE GROWING AS WELL IN THE 7 TO 14 DAY PERIOD.
AVIATION (00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 635 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
IMPACTS:
- NONE.
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CUMULUS WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY, THEN A FEW MORE MAY POP UP MONDAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT.
THERE IS A NONZERO CHANCE FOR BRIEF FOG AT KLAF OVERNIGHT, BUT ODDS
ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS HAS
RESULTED IN ABNORMALLY DRY AND MINOR DROUGHT CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS INDIANA. WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
7-10 DAYS, THERE MAY BE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT EACH
AFTERNOON AS DAILY MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO THE 20% RANGE. LOWERED
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS EACH DAY TOWARD THE NBM10TH PERCENTILE TO
ACCOUNT FOR SUCH DRY CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON MIXING BRINGING DOWN
EVEN DRIER AIR TO THE SURFACE. THE ONE FACTOR KEEPING THE FIRE
WEATHER THREAT LOWER IS THE LACK OF WIND. DESPITE DEEP MIXING, VERY
WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP WINDS UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR
INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...50
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...50
FIRE WEATHER...CM
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