679
FXUS63 KIND 100707
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
307 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GRADUALLY CLIMBING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH NEAR 90
DEGREE HIGHS BY SATURDAY
- DRY WEATHER OUTSIDE OF LOW RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND MAY LEAD TO
CONTINUED EXPANSION OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEK
- DRY FUELS AND LOW RH VALUES EACH AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO AN ELEVATED
FIRE THREAT, BUT LIGHT WINDS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SURFACE
RIDGING AND A DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. THE CENTER OF THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY
WITH ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH TRACKING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE PERIOD, BOTH HAVE ALLOWED FOR WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
OR SOUTHERLY.
A FEW UPPER WAVES MOVING THROUGH DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
PROVIDE SCATTERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AREA. EARLY THIS MORNING
HAS A SWATH OF CLOUDS IN THE REGION THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH, BUT
SHOULD THIN OUT SOME AS THE DAY GOES ON DUE TO MIXING THROUGH THE
COLUMN. EXPECT VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO PREVENT ANY
PRECIPITATION. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED INTO THE
FORECAST FOR DEWPOINTS DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY
MORE ACCURATELY SIMULATE DIURNAL MIXING.
MORE SOUTHERLY INFLUENCE AND LESS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND AND SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.
LOW RH VALUES EACH AFTERNOON AND DRY FUELS WILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED
FIRE THREAT. THE ONE POSITIVE VARIABLE IS WINDS REMAINING LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT THE THREAT FOR FIRES
TO SPREAD. MORE DETAILS ON THIS THREAT CAN BE FOUND BELOW IN THE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY PERSISTING AND WEAK TO NO FLOW
NEAR THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW NEAR SATURATION AT
THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A SPARSE DIURNAL CU FIELD. WEAK FLOW AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL LIMIT THE MIXING OUT OF SURFACE MOISTURE BUT LIKE
PREVIOUS DAYS, EXPECT MIN RH VALUES TO DROP INTO THE 25 TO 35
PERCENT RANGE. SMOKE ALOFT FROM FIRES OUT WEST MAY CREATE SLIGHTLY
HAZY SKIES, BUT DON'T EXPECT TOO MANY IMPACTS BEYOND THAT AS THE
SMOKE WILL REMAIN WELL ALOFT.
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S FOR THURSDAY. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY OTHER THAN SLIGHTLY LOWER RH
VALUES DUE TO THE WARMER HIGHS WHICH MAY APPROACH 90 DEGREES IN THE
WEST. CONCERNS CONTINUE FOR SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER
WITH DETAILS COVERED IN THE FIRE SECTION AT THE BOTTOM.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A WIDE
MODEL SPREAD ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE BROADER PATTERN HAS A
BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RIDGE-
RIDING COMPLEXES OF STORMS FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT EXACT DETAILS REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY, INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE FAIRLY MEAGER,
BUT A STRENGTHENING JET ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL INCREASE SHEAR
AND CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION. AT
THIS POINT, CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN AT LEAST SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT ANY REACH
AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL INDIANA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO DECREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A
WIDE RANGE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS IN HOW THEY HANDLE BOTH THE ONGOING
RIDGE AND A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARDS A MORE PERSISTENT PATTERN WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE HELPING TO PUSH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE FURTHER
EAST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES, BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS. WITH ENSEMBLE OUTPUT KEEPING CHANCES OF QPF
GREATER THAN 0.01" AT LESS THAN 30 PERCENT OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS,
EXPECT TO SEE FURTHER EXPANSION IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND
EXACERBATING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS GOING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE
MONTH.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
IMPACTS:
- NONE
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION IS LEADING TO A MODEST
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER TONIGHT, WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
PREVENT FOG DESPITE LIGHT WINDS.
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES MAY BE REACHED WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING SOME
SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS TO DEVELOP AROUND 5K-7KFT.
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD, STARTING OFF
EASTERLY OR POSSIBLY CALM IN SPOTS THROUGH DAYBREAK, BEFORE TURNING
MORE SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY.
NO OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE ANTICIPATED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SINCE LATE AUGUST HAS RESULTED
IN ABNORMALLY DRY AND MINOR DROUGHT CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
INDIANA. WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS,
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN AN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER
EACH AFTERNOON AS DAILY MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO THE 25 TO 35% RANGE.
THE MAJOR FACTOR KEEPING THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT LOWER IS THE LACK
OF WIND. DESPITE DEEP MIXING, VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP
WINDS UNDER 10 MPH THROUGH THE PERIOD. IF NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS
OBSERVED THIS WEEKEND, THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT MAY CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND PERSIST INTO MID MONTH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST FOR INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...WHITE
AVIATION...KF
FIRE WEATHER...WHITE
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