733
FXUS63 KIND 111349
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
949 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GRADUALLY CLIMBING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH NEAR 90
DEGREE HIGHS BY SATURDAY
- DRY WEATHER OUTSIDE OF LOW RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND MAY LEAD TO
CONTINUED EXPANSION OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEK
- DRY FUELS AND LOW RH VALUES EACH AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO AN ELEVATED
FIRE THREAT, BUT LIGHT WINDS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 949 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
EASTERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF BROAD LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL AID
IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM EXCEEDING GUIDANCE, TYPICALLY FOUND IN
THESE EARLY FALL, DRY AIRMASSES. THEREFOR, EXPECTED HIGHS HAVE
REMAINING IN THE MID 80S FOR CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
POCKETS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY REMAIN IN THE SUPERGEOSTROPHIC FLOW,
BUT GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE STILL EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
TODAY WILL BEGIN THE ARRIVAL OF LONGWAVE RIDGING FROM THE WEST, OF
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER BEYOND THE
SHORT TERM. THE DRY AIRMASS IS ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY GREATER DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE SWINGS THAN IS TYPICAL FOR THIS AREA. MORNING LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON REACHING MID TO UPPER 80S.
DESPITE THE OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS, RADIATIONAL COOLING IS LEADING
TO SOME PATCHY FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING WHERE THE
TEMPERATURE IS DROPPING TO THE DEW POINT. VISIBILITIES COULD CHANGE
QUICKLY IF DRIVING THROUGH THESE AREAS, SO DRIVE WITH CAUTION.
LOW RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON AND DRY FUELS WILL SUPPORT
AN INCREASED FIRE THREAT. ON A POSITIVE NOTE, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THUS KEEPING THE FIRE THREAT FROM BEING EVEN
MORE OF A THREAT. CONTINUE TO USE CAUTION IF BURNING ANYTHING
OUTDOORS.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE PRIMARY FOCUS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ON THE
INCREASING HEAT AND POTENTIAL FOR EXACERBATING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL US
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT AND CALM WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE
WITH VERY WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
NEAR CALM WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AFTERNOON RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20 TO LOW 30 PERCENT
RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL CREATE ANOTHER DAY OF SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER. WITH LIGHT WINDS, THE THREAT IS MUCH
REDUCED BUT WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE ADDITIONAL BRUSH AND FIELD
FIRES POP UP AS HARVESTS CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE.
THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT GOING INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRAVELS SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
WITH STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE DEVELOPING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE
OVERALL CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA IS LOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH THE VERY DRY ANTECEDENT AIR COMBINES WITH THE WEAK
FORCING AS THE SYSTEM TRAVELS SOUTHEAST. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES, ANY
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
THE RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY GOING INTO SUNDAY AS AN OMEGA
BLOCK PATTERN BECOMES MORE EVIDENT AS THE OHIO VALLEY REMAINS
SANDWICHED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO THE WEST AND EAST. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH LOW TO
MID 90S LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA. TEMPERATURES MAY WARM
ENOUGH FOR SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
AT THIS TIME IS ANY PRECIPITATION. GENERALLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
OUTSIDE OF LOW CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR 90
DEGREE TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THE BROADER
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STAGNANT WHICH PROMOTES
PERSISTENT CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DAY TO DAY WEATHER.
OUTSIDE OF LOCATIONS THAT SEE THE EXTREMELY SPOTTY PRECIPITATION,
IT'LL BE ANOTHER DRY 7 DAYS FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA WHICH PUTS
MANY LOCATIONS AS SEEING LITTLE TO NO RAIN FOR THE LAST 3 WEEKS.
THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRETCH OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO THE EXPANSION OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
STATE. DAILY MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL AGAIN FALL TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35
PERCENT THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 654 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
IMPACTS: NONE
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER CENTRAL INDIANA TERMINALS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. A BROAD AND WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE THROUGH THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD, PROVIDING SOME SCT
CLOUDS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EASTERLY AT 7 KTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND CALM AT TIMES.
BMG HAD PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT AND HAS SINCE LIFTED. CAN'T RULE OUT
ADDITIONAL BRIEF FOG FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE PERIOD, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA HAVE RECEIVED LITTLE TO NO
RAIN OUTSIDE OF A STRETCH FROM SEPTEMBER 4TH TO 5TH SO FAR THIS
MONTH WITH AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A HALF INCH FOR MOST SINCE MID-
AUGUST. THIS IS LEADING TO EXPANDED DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
STATE WITH TODAY'S NEW DROUGHT OUTLOOK LIKELY TO SEE ADDITIONAL
EXPANSIONS.
WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS, ADDITIONAL EXPANSION OF DROUGHT
CONDITIONS IS LIKELY WITH RAPID ONSET DROUGHT BEING PREDICTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE. WHILE THIS IS TYPICALLY A DRIER STRETCH OF THE
YEAR, THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
TO LEAD TO GREATER IMPACTS TO BOTH DROUGHT AND FIRE DANGER.
THE AVERAGE OF THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY IS 89.2 DEGREES WHICH WOULD BE THE WARMEST SINCE 1939
OVER THE STRETCH.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...UPDIKE
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...WHITE
AVIATION...KF
CLIMATE...WHITE
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