278
FXUS63 KIND 130047
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
847 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PROGRESSIVELY HOTTER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH MULTIPLE DAYS WITH HIGHS ABOVE 90
- A SMALL THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY, OTHERWISE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER SUPPORTS FURTHER
EXPANSION OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEK
- DRY FUELS AND LOW RH VALUES EACH AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO AN ELEVATED
FIRE THREAT, BUT LIGHT WINDS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL CONCERNS
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 846 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST HAS BEEN LEFT UNTOUCHED, WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE SOUTH KEEPING CONDITIONS STAGNANT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS HAVE BEEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER WESTERN CENTRAL
INDIANA DUE TO THE EMERGENCE OF BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS FROM
UPSTREAM CONVECTION; OF WHICH IS LIKELY TO LIMIT DIURNAL COOLING
SLIGHTLY. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR AREAS SW OF I74 TO FALL ONLY IN
THE LOW 60S (OUTSIDE OF RIVER VALLEYS), AND ELSEWHERE TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 50S.
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...
QUIET AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE, WITH SOME PASSING CIRRUS AND A
FEW CUMULUS AROUND.
TONIGHT...
THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET WITH SOME CIRRUS MOVING
THROUGH AT TIMES. HOWEVER, WELL UPSTREAM IN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, A WAVE RIDING AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL KICK
OFF AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR LOOKS GOOD ENOUGH UP
THERE FOR THE CONVECTION TO BECOME ORGANIZED.
OVERNIGHT, THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE RIDGE. THIS
WILL BRING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATE.
EXPECTED TIMING OF THE CONVECTION IS SUCH THAT NO MENTIONABLE POPS
ARE NEEDED DURING THE TONIGHT PERIOD.
EXPECT CIRRUS TO BE THIN ENOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR
TEMPERATURES TO COOL TO BELOW BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR LOWS, ESPECIALLY
SOUTH AND EAST IN RURAL AREAS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.
SATURDAY...
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND DIURNALLY
WEAKEN SATURDAY. THE FORCING FOR CONVECTION WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY. THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN DRY LOCALLY, SO
THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP REDEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTION LIMITED.
IN ADDITION, THE PATH OF THE WEAKENING COMPLEX REMAINS UNCERTAIN,
WITH CAMS SHOWING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. WILL ADD SOME CHANCE POPS TO
THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL
HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DOWN TO ABOUT I-70. THESE MAY CHANGE
WITH LATER UPDATES AS THE EVOLUTION OF THE COMPLEX BECOMES CLEARER.
THE UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUDS/RAIN ALSO MAKES HIGH TEMPERATURES MORE
UNCERTAIN. WILL GO NEAR OR BELOW BLENDED GUIDANCE, BUT THIS STILL
PUTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 MOST AREAS.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
LOWER CONFIDENCE CONTINUES IN THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
ADDITIONAL WAVES RIDING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE, WHICH COULD TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION.
SOME CAMS HAVE WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
OTHER MODELS DO SHOW THE THREAT OF AT LEAST SOME RAIN FROM AN UPPER
WAVE, BUT NOWHERE NEAR THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THOSE CAMS.
ONE THING ANY AREA OF CONVECTION WILL ENCOUNTER IS A RELATIVE LACK
OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS, ESPECIALLY IF NOT MUCH HAPPENS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS MAY HELP WEAKEN CONVECTION THAT DOES
MOVE INTO THE AREA, BUT ELEVATED MOISTURE COULD MAKE UP FOR THIS, AT
LEAST ENOUGH FOR RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES, WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP SUNDAY DRY, BUT MAY HAVE TO ADD
SOME MORNING POPS DEPENDING ON SATURDAY NIGHT'S CONVECTION.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY WITH
READINGS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. IF
CONVECTION WERE TO LINGER SUNDAY MORNING, HIGHS WOULD BE COOLER.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WORK
WEEK, PROVIDING HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. WITH NOT A LOT IF ANY RAIN
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, THESE CONDITIONS WILL MAKE ABNORMALLY DRY TO
DROUGHT CONDITIONS WORSE.
THE GFS OFTEN OVER MIXES AND THUS PRODUCES TOO WARM HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS IN THESE SCENARIOS, BUT THE ECMWF ISN'T MUCH COOLER. AT
ANY RATE, READINGS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOME AREAS SEEING
HIGHS IN THE 90S.
UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP AGAIN AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH POTENTIALLY MOVING INTO THE AREA. MODELS OFTEN ARE TOO FAST
IN BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE, SO ANY POPS ON FRIDAY COULD BE OVERDONE.
FOR NOW, WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY, WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.
AVIATION (00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 701 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
IMPACTS:
- POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW EVENING AND NIGHT,
PRIMARILY AT KLAF.
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF VARIABLE
DETERIORATION WITHIN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
MAINLY CIRRUS IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN SOME MID CLOUD WILL
MOVE IN SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND LESS
THAN 10KT SATURDAY.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAKENING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 15Z, BUT RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE. POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IS GREATEST AT
KLAF, AND MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED ELSEWHERE AFTER 13/23Z, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...UPDIKE
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...UPDIKE
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