507
FXUS63 KIND 131024
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
624 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT
- A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL REESTABLISH SUNDAY AND CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK
- DRY FUELS AND LOW RH VALUES EACH AFTERNOON NEXT WEEK MAY LEAD TO
AN ELEVATED FIRE THREAT, BUT LIGHT WINDS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
CONCERNS
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING BUT
CIRRUS IS INCREASING FROM THE NORTH. 06Z TEMPERATURES VARIED
WIDELY...FROM THE MID 50S IN SOME RURAL LOCALES TO THE MID 60S
AROUND THE INDY METRO.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL TRACK ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY NORTH
INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE PASSAGE OF THE FEATURE WILL LEAD TO
AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE LATER THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL FULLY
TRANSITION INTO AN OMEGA BLOCKING REGIME ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THE UPPER WAVE WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO POTENTIALLY IMPACT PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE THE DEEPENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ESTABLISHES A HOT AND DRY PATTERN FOR THE OHIO VALLEY LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER WAVE AND AT THE
NOSE OF A WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET. THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD SUSTAIN CONVECTION AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE
HOWEVER REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE REMNANTS OF
THE ONGOING CONVECTION WILL GET AND IF THAT CAN MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY BY MIDDAY. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
WEAKEN AND BREAK DOWN AFTER DAYBREAK ROBBING CONVECTION OF THE FUEL
TO MAINTAIN IT. FURTHERMORE...THE AIRMASS REMAINS NOTICEABLY DRIER
FURTHER SOUTH OVER CENTRAL INDIANA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LITTLE MOISTURE PRESENT BELOW 750MB. WILL
MAINTAIN LOW PRECIP CHANCES FOCUSED OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT MINIMAL
IMPACTS FROM THE WEAKENING CONVECTION.
THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY SOMEWHAT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING AS SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE IS ABLE TO ADVECT INTO THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH A SUBTLE INCREASE IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS
WELL. ANTICIPATE RENEWED SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY LATE
DAY AS A RESULT FOCUSED INITIALLY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTH INTO TONIGHT. MOST OF
THE CONVECTION LATE DAY INTO TONIGHT WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS
BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE WABASH VALLEY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER SHEAR IN THE 0-3KM
LAYER WHICH MAY BE ABLE TO GENERATE STRONGER CORES ALOFT WITH HAIL
AS A PRIMARY RISK. COULD SEE A FEW COLLAPSING CELLS PRODUCE STRONGER
WINDS BUT THE PRESENCE OF DRIER AIR AND AN INVERSION WITHIN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD TEND TO LIMIT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WIND RISK.
WHILE OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST...STORMS
WILL CARRY THE POTENTIAL FOR WELCOME RAINFALL AS PWATS RISE BRIEFLY
UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES BY THIS EVENING NEAR THE ILLINOIS-INDIANA
BORDER. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AND COVERAGE AND PUSH SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE IN RESPONSE TO
THE AMPLIFYING AND EASTWARD EXPANDING RIDGE.
TEMPS...HIGHS REMAIN A BIT TRICKY FOR LATER TODAY AS THEY ARE
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND WHETHER THE MORNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
CAN MAKE IT INTO PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE DIMINISHING. MAX
TEMPS WILL LIKELY END UP IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FURTHER
SOUTHWEST. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY MAY MAKE A
RUN AT 90 DEGREES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL PREDOMINATELY BE DRY AND MUCH WARMER THAN
NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOST DAYS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S DUE TO A
PASSING RIDGING SYSTEM. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A PATTERN CHANGE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD THAT MAY BRING NEARER TO NORMAL TEMPS
AND RAIN CHANCES.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. SOME MODELS ALSO SHOW A FEW
ADDITIONAL WAVES RIDING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE EARLY IN THE WEEK
WHICH COULD TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CONVECTION, BUT AT THIS TIME MOST OF
THAT LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR WEST WITH CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINING DRY.
THIS PERSISTENT DRY PATTERN WILL MAKE THE ABNORMALLY DRY TO DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WORSE.
AS WE NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RETURN OF
UPPER RIDGING ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL VARIANCES IN DETAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY LOWER NEARER TO NORMAL AND COULD ALSO SEE A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS MODELS ARE OFTEN TOO
FAST IN BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE, SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
WELCOME RAIN POTENTIAL.
AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 624 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
IMPACTS:
- SCATTERED CONVECTION FOCUSED MAINLY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF ANY BRIEF IMPACTS FROM SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SOUTHERN THE COMPLEX MAY DRIFT INTO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA BY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING
WITHIN A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN ANY RAIN
MAKING IT TO ANY OF THE TERMINALS WITHIN THIS INITIAL AREA OF
CONVECTION HOWEVER AND WILL MAINTAIN NO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME.
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS GREATEST BY LATE DAY INTO
TONIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PRESENT. BASED
ON NEWEST DATA...HAVE ADJUSTED 6 HOUR PROB30 BLOCKS AT ALL OF THE
TERMINALS FOCUSED THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF IMPACTS FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...RYAN
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