962
FXUS63 KIND 140445
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1245 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT
- A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY WEST
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL REESTABLISH SUNDAY AND CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK
- DRY FUELS AND LOW RH VALUES EACH AFTERNOON NEXT WEEK MAY LEAD TO
AN ELEVATED FIRE THREAT, BUT LIGHT WINDS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
CONCERNS
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 928 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
THE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ATTACHED TO LAKE
ENHANCED MOISTURE AND MODEST MID-LEVEL SHEAR HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED,
WITH FOCUS NOW SHIFTING TOWARDS NOCTURNAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LOW
LEVEL DIABATIC BOUNDARY. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 1200-1800 J/KG OF
MUCAPE AHEAD OF A 900-850MB WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME
ELEVATED AND SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL HIGHLY VARIED AS OF THE 00Z SUITE, BUT GIVEN
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS, THIS LOOKS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR BETWEEN HWY
231 AND THE IN/OH BORDER. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO COINCIDE WITH THE GREATER UPWARD LIFT AND SHEAR, BUT
GENERALLY THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 03-09Z TONIGHT,
EVENTUALLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY
MORNING. GIVEN DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 35-40KTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR, A FEW ORGANIZED CORES AND THEREFOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE SMALL TO
POTENTIALLY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. THAT SAID, A MAJORITY SHOULD REMAIN
MUNDANE OR WITHOUT LIGHTNING, AS IT WILL TAKE STRONG LIFT TO REACH
THE BEST MID-LEVEL SHEAR.
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...
INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MEANWHILE, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED UPSTREAM
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. THESE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
FORCING FOR THESE STORMS IS CAUSED BY LIFT OVER A BOUNDARY THAT
EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST IOWA INTO WESTERN INDIANA. UNSTABLE AIR TO
THE WEST ACROSS ILLINOIS IS FEEDING THESE STORMS.
THUS EXPECT THIS CURRENT ROUND OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. WILL GO WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
COVERAGE IN THESE AREAS WITH LOWER COVERAGE POPS ELSEWHERE. GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE, WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE INSTABILITY WEST OF THE
AREA.
ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP UPSTREAM OF THE CURRENT STORMS AS
WELL, SO WILL KEEP POPS GOING EVEN AFTER THIS NEXT ROUND PASSES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE ROUNDS OF STORMS. WHERE
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OCCUR READINGS MAY STAY AROUND 70, WHILE OTHER AREAS
RECOVER BACK INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80. FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
AREAS MAY REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.
TONIGHT...
HIGHER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE POP FORECAST TONIGHT. THE
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT
OCCURRING. THERE MAY ALSO BE ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THE RIDGE JUST TO THE WEST.
MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING POORLY WITH TODAY'S CONVECTION AND ARE
INCONSISTENT WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR TONIGHT, SO THEY ARE NO HELP.
GIVEN THE BOUNDARY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUING, WILL BROADBRUSH
CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LATER FORECASTS MAY BE
ABLE TO PIN DOWN BETTER TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF THE POPS.
THANKS TO CLOUDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS, LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
60S.
SUNDAY...
SOME WEAK LIFT MAY CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY, BUT AM
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE POPS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA, AND THIS SHOULD PUT A
STOP TO ANY CONVECTION FROM FORMING.
CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE RIDGE MOVING IN, AND SUNSHINE WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO AROUND 90.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS AS WELL
AS DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO AT LEAST MID-WEEK NEXT
WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE, IN GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL, BUT A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE VICINITY. EVEN WITH THIS SURFACE
TROUGH AROUND, SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE AREA
DRY.
MOST AREAS WILL STILL HAVE A DRY GROUND, AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF THE PREVIOUS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. THIS WILL
HELP WORSEN DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE BEFORE THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK AND THEN BRING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO THE AREA. AS MODELS
ARE OFTEN TOO FAST IN BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
THAN USUAL FOR THE TIMING OF THIS UPPER LOW.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, WILL KEEP WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE BRINGING IN
POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. CLOUDS AND THE UPPER SYSTEM
WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 80S
BY NEXT SATURDAY.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
IMPACTS:
- FOG POSSIBLE AT KIND AND KLAF THROUGH DAYBREAK
DISCUSSION:
SCATTERED CONVECTION LINGERS JUST TO THE EAST OF KBMG AND KIND
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST
OF THE TERMINALS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP IN AREAS
WHERE IT RAINED ON SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY AT KLAF WHERE IFR AND
LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REVERT TO EASTERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY ENABLING
DRIER AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT OTHERWISE
EXPECTING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR
THIS EVENING.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...UPDIKE
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...RYAN
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