363
FXUS63 KIND 140700
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
300 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ENDING THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK
- DRY FUELS AND LOW RH VALUES EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE THREAT, BUT LIGHT WINDS SHOULD LIMIT
OVERALL CONCERNS
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO REGENERATE IN THE VICINITY OF A REMNANT
BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH FROM JUST E/SE OF THE INDY METRO ALONG I-65
TO NEAR LOUISVILLE. POCKETS OF STRATOCU LINGERED FURTHER NORTH FROM
THE CONVECTION INTO SW LOWER MICHIGAN WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE
WEST. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 60S AT 06Z.
A WAVE ALOFT RIDING DOWN THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN TANDEM WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE CONVECTION
SATURDAY AND LINGERING EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW WILL
DRIFT SOUTH AND WEAKEN FURTHER TODAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXPANDING
FROM THE NORTHEAST BY TONIGHT. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE DAY AS WELL AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RESUMPTION OF THE WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AND SET THE TABLE FOR ANOTHER EXTENDED STRETCH
OF DRY WEATHER LASTING ALL THE WAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THE ONGOING CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AND SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK
OR SHORTLY AFTER. HAVE ALREADY SEEN RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES
APPROACHING 2 INCHES SINCE LATE LAST EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF
SEYMOUR AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANY INCREASED FLOODING
POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS OF
THE LAST FEW WEEKS HAS MITIGATED THE FLOOD RISK SIGNIFICANTLY BUT
ANY FURTHER TRAINING OF THE ONGOING STORMS IN JACKSON AND JENNINGS
COS COULD CAUSE BRIEF LOCALIZED HIGH WATER IN SPOTS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.
THE OTHER NEAR TERM FOCUS IN ADDITION TO THE STORMS IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH A PARTICULAR CONCERN
IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 18 HOURS OR SO.
THE OTHER PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT RECEIVED HIGHER RAINFALL
TOTALS ON SATURDAY WAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY AND WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THERE ALREADY AND THE EXPECTATION OF WINDS
DIMINISHING TO NEAR CALM LEVELS...EXPECT SOME LOCALIZED FOG
FORMATION THROUGH DAYBREAK.
ANY FOG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE
WITH A TREND TOWARDS INCREASING SUNSHINE AND A GRADUAL ADVECTION OF
DRIER AIR THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE NORTHEAST
EXPANDS TOWARDS THE REGION. LINGERING STRATOCU OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING SHOULD LARGELY DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY
OR TRANSITION TO A SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FIELD FOR THE AFTERNOON.
SKIES WILL FULLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
BECOME THE PRIMARY FEATURES INFLUENCING WEATHER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMALS SUPPORT HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. ONCE AGAIN THE
WARMEST AIR WILL BE FOUND IN THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY IN CLOSEST
PROXIMITY TO THE EXPANDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE MID 60S SOUTHWEST.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS AS WELL
AS DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO AT LEAST MID-WEEK. THE
RIDGE WILL STICK AROUND DUE TO BEING BLOCKED BY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MODELS SHOW STICKING CLOSE TO THE CAROLINAS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE PERIOD. THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL HELP TO KEEP THE AREA
DRY ALL THE WHILE SHORT WAVES RIDING AROUND THE RIDGE COULD BRING
PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
MOST AREAS WILL STILL HAVE A RELATIVELY DRY GROUND, AND THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN DRY AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF THE PREVIOUS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED CAROLINA SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NE MIDWEEK,
OUR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE ON AS WELL. IN IT'S PLACE, A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENTER FORM THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN START TO TREND COOLER AND REACH NEARER TO NORMAL FOR THE AREA
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS LOW WILL ALSO BRING A DECENT SHOT AT
MULTIPLE DAYS OF RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.
MODELS DO STILL VARY IN THEIR SOLUTIONS, PARTICULARLY WITH TIMING,
SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH ANY DETAILS.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
IMPACTS:
- FOG POSSIBLE AT KIND AND KLAF THROUGH DAYBREAK
DISCUSSION:
SCATTERED CONVECTION LINGERS JUST TO THE EAST OF KBMG AND KIND
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST
OF THE TERMINALS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP IN AREAS
WHERE IT RAINED ON SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY AT KLAF WHERE IFR AND
LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REVERT TO EASTERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY ENABLING
DRIER AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT OTHERWISE
EXPECTING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR
THIS EVENING.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...RYAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page