413
FXUS63 KIND 150936
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
536 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
- DRYING FUELS AND LOW RH VALUES EACH AFTERNOON TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE THREAT, BUT LIGHT WINDS SHOULD LIMIT
OVERALL CONCERNS
- NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AND NEARER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARRIVES THIS
WEEKEND
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
AN EXPANDING SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE NORTHEAST IN TANDEM WITH DEEP
RIDGING ALOFT AIDING IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT DRIER AIR SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AS WELL. 06Z TEMPERATURES RANGED BROADLY FORM THE
UPPER 50S OVER NORTHEAST COUNTIES TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE LOWER
WABASH VALLEY AND OVER THE INDY METRO AREA.
THE RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SERVE AS THE PRIMARY
FEATURES INFLUENCING WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THIS LATE SUMMER REGIME.
THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING SHOULD
MITIGATE MOST FOG PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN
DISPLACED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI ANDS MISSOURI VALLEYS WEST INTO THE
PLAINS WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LEFTOVER MOISTURE WITHIN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TO GENERATE A FEW CU FOR THE AFTERNOON OTHERWISE
EXPECTING A SUNNY DAY. EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR RH VALUES TO
DROP AS LOW AS 25-30% DURING THE AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING AN ELEVATED
FIRE RISK WITH THE ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS ONGOING. CLEAR SKIES
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR THIN CIRRUS TO DRIFT
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS
AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS.
TEMPS...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO READINGS FROM SUNDAY WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH THE WARMEST AIR ONCE
AGAIN LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTHEAST TO THE MID 60S SOUTHWEST.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START WITH A MODIFIED OMEGA BLOCKING
PATTERN WITH AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN USA, ANOTHER LOW NEAR
THE CAROLINAS, AND AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
PERSIST. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK, THE WARM, DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S TO NEAR 90.
ALTHOUGH MANY AREAS SAW AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY, THE
EXPECTED CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL DRY THINGS OUT QUICKLY AND KEEP THE
FIRE WEATHER THREAT HIGHER THAN AVERAGE.
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND, WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH-
CENTRAL PLAINS. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCOMPANY IT,
BRINGING CHANCES FOR ALONG WITH GRADUALLY COOLING TEMPERATURES.
UNSURPRISINGLY, MODELS ARE STARTING TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN
A BIT SINCE IT HAS A TENDENCY OF BREAKING DOWN RIDGES TOO FAST.
THUS, EXPECT RAIN TO ARRIVE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND AND SHOULD SEE
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NUMEROUS DAYS FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO THE NEW
WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY, WILL KEEP WITH GUIDANCE FOR NOW. IN TERMS
OF TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL TREND COOLER AND NEARER TO NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
IMPACTS:
- NONE
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL MAINTAIN QUIET WEATHER FOR
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW DIURNAL CU ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR. E/SE WINDS AT
5-10KTS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON THEN BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...RYAN
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