353
FXUS63 KIND 160521
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
121 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
- DRYING FUELS AND LOW RH VALUES EACH AFTERNOON TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE THREAT, BUT LIGHT WINDS SHOULD LIMIT
OVERALL CONCERNS
- NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AND NEARER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARRIVES THIS
WEEKEND
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 935 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. DIURNAL CUMULUS
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIMINISH LEAVING US WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
SOME HIGH CIRRUS MAY BE PRESENT AT TIMES. A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND
BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS HAS DEVELOPED WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT FROM INDIANAPOLIS NORTH AND EASTWARD.
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH, WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING EARLY THIS
EVENING.
AN UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN INFLUENCES
THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT SOME CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA WILL DRIFT INTO CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MOST AREAS BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE THICKEST CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE FAR
EAST/SOUTHEAST, CLOSER TO THE SYSTEM.
BLENDED GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT WARM TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. WILL TRIM SOME. WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS ON
TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT COOLER, ESPECIALLY EAST. READINGS
WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
THE MODIFIED OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN NOW LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK, WHICH IS NOT UNEXPECTED AS MODELS OFTEN BREAK DOWN THESE
PATTERNS TOO FAST.
THE RIDGING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL PROVIDE VERY WARM TO HOT
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
BLENDED GUIDANCE BRINGS IN POPS AS EARLY AS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY,
BUT GIVEN RECENT TRENDS FEEL THAT THIS LIKELY OVERDONE.
THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW THE GROUND TO CONTINUE TO
DRY, MAINTAINING OR INCREASING THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
FORTUNATELY, WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS.
AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE VICINITY. THESE WILL
BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA AS WELL AS COOLER (BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL) TEMPERATURES.
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND SPECIFIC TIMING OF BETTER FORCING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN, SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
IMPACTS: NONE
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA TERMINALS. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAWN AT KHUF/KBMG
WHERE LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ALREADY PRESENT.
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT KIND.
NARROW YET STAGNANT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN ITS ALIGNMENT
FROM THE OZARKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, AS THE LOCAL REGION FALLS
UNDER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE. SOME HIGH AND POSSIBLY MID
CLOUD WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON
CUMULUS AGAIN MOST PREVALENT SOUTH OF I-70.
GENERALLY LIGHT, NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY BECOME VARIABLE/CALM EARLY
THIS MORNING. WINDS TUESDAY FROM 040-070 DEGREES WILL BE SUSTAINED
UNDER 7KT EXCEPT AT KIND.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ECKHOFF
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...AGM
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