588
FXUS63 KIND 160647
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
247 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
FRIDAY
- DRYING FUELS AND LOW RH VALUES EACH AFTERNOON TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE THREAT, BUT LIGHT WINDS SHOULD LIMIT
OVERALL CONCERNS
- NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AND NEARER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARRIVES THIS
WEEKEND
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
FAIR, YET AT TIMES VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THROUGH DAWN WEDNESDAY. A POSITIVELY-TILTED AND NARROWING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN ITS PROXIMITY FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA...WHILE FLANKED BY QUASI-STATIONARY
TROUGHS OVER BOTH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND EASTERN SEABOARD.
BROAD BUT RATHER WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING FROM
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TO NEW ENGLAND...WILL PROVIDE A LIGHT BREEZE
LOCALLY, VEERING FROM NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RESULTANT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT A LARGER DIURNAL
SPREAD WITH OVERALL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS LED BY AFTERNOON HIGHS.
AFTERNOON MAXIMUMS WILL RANGE FROM MID-80S OVER NORTH-CENTRAL ZONES
TO LOW 90S ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM SOUTHERN VERMILLION
COUNTY TO THE BEDFORD AREA. TONIGHT, MINIMUMS IN THE UPPER 50S WILL
BE COMMON ONCE AGAIN FOR MOST OF THE REGION, WITH LOWS CLOSER TO 60
DEGREES OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND IN MARION COUNTY.
GIVEN THE MARINGALLY-HOT READINGS AND LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED TODAY,
AN AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR HIGHER LEVELS OF OZONE WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR GREENE COUNTY DOWN THROUGH THE US-
50 CORRIDOR.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
THE PERSISTENT OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE COUNTRY IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL
MAINTAIN THE ONGOING STAGNANT PATTERN HIGHLIGHTED BY HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THIS WEEKEND AND AID IN
BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO COOL SLIGHTLY WHILE INTRODUCING A THREAT FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR MUCH
NEEDED RAIN AND STORMS HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN THE PREVALENT FEATURES
INFLUENCING WEATHER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. DRY
WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE BULK OF THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S EACH AFTERNOON WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S.
THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS
MINIMUM RH LEVELS WILL FALL INTO THE 25-30% RANGE EACH AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL REMAIN VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AND LARGELY AT OR BELOW
10MPH WHICH WILL MITIGATE MORE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WITH SUBTLE MOISTURE
RECOVERY WILL AT LEAST PRESENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND. THE LINGERING PRESENCE OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND RESIDUAL DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE BELOW
700MB WILL SUBSTANTIALLY HAMPER A GREATER CONVECTIVE RISK FOR THE
REGION HOWEVER. THE ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL ONLY AMPLIFY THESE CHALLENGES. HARD TO JUSTIFY MORE THAN CHANCE
POPS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MANY LOCATIONS
REMAINING DRY. INCREASING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BRING AN END TO THE HOT TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH HIGHS PULLING BACK TO THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER THE WEEKEND.
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH WHAT IS LIKELY TO BE THE BEST OVERALL RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES IMPROVE WITH A
SLIGHTLY BETTER INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD ENABLE A GREATER CONVECTIVE RISK. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE BY EARLY TUESDAY...COOLER AIR WILL BRIEFLY EXPAND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS AN UPPER LOW PASSES TRACKS FROM NEAR JAMES
BAY INTO NEW ENGLAND. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOWEVER WILL RETURN
TO THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK LASTING PERHAPS
THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH WITH A RESUMPTION OF WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
IMPACTS: NONE
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA TERMINALS. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAWN AT KHUF/KBMG
WHERE LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ALREADY PRESENT.
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT KIND.
NARROW YET STAGNANT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN ITS ALIGNMENT
FROM THE OZARKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, AS THE LOCAL REGION FALLS
UNDER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE. SOME HIGH AND POSSIBLY MID
CLOUD WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON
CUMULUS AGAIN MOST PREVALENT SOUTH OF I-70.
GENERALLY LIGHT, NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY BECOME VARIABLE/CALM EARLY
THIS MORNING. WINDS TUESDAY FROM 040-070 DEGREES WILL BE SUSTAINED
UNDER 7KT EXCEPT AT KIND.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...AGM
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...AGM
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