166
FXUS63 KIND 030344
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1144 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
- DROUGHT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND WORSEN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
- NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 946 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
CIRRUS CONTINUES TO DRIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES. 01Z TEMPS RANGED FROM THE
MID 60S INTO THE LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
THE PRESENCE OF THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL REMAIN THE
PRIMARY INFLUENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. CIRRUS WILL
SHIFT EAST LATE TONIGHT WITH SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING. WHILE THE
EXPECTATION IS FOR DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE...THERE IS A SUBTLE UPPER
LOW DRIFTING THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS CURRENTLY. THERE IS A SMALL
BUT NON-ZERO RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FEATURE IN
THE PREDAWN HOURS AS IT DRIFTS EAST. THIS LOOKS MORE PLAUSIBLE TO
OUR SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER AND ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY
WHERE ISOLATED ACTIVITY OCCURRED EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVERNIGHT.
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S. ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS REMAINS IN CONTROL.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL HELP TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
DEWPOINTS. WHILE PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY GIVEN VERY WEAK FORCING,
A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE,
PRIMARILY DURING PEAK HEATING ON FRIDAY. EXPECTED COVERAGE WILL BE
VERY ISOLATED AT BEST SO DECIDED TO NOT ADD ANY MENTIONABLE POPS.
GRADUALLY INCREASING DEWPOINTS COMBINED WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD
KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MORE MILD COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. LOOK
FOR LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. ANOTHER SIMILAR
FORECAST IS THEN EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A STRAY SHOWER. HIGHS ARE LIKELY
GOING TO BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER COMPARED TO TODAY THANKS TO A
WARMER START IN THE MORNING. MORE DIURNAL CU SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP
WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. RH
VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 30 PERCENT AND LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS LOW AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
A DRY AND WARM PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY COLUMN THROUGH THE PERIOD SO MOSTLY
SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS WILL REMAIN IN PLAY. LOOK FOR
HIGHS IN THE 80S TO PERSIST, PROVIDING AN EXTENSION OF SUMMER-LIKE
WEATHER. THESE VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
MODELS DEPICT THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW GULF MOISTURE
TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH AT LEAST A
MODEST INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT. FURTHERMORE, MODELS HINT AT A
COLD FRONT PUSHING TOWARD INDIANA ON TUESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY CROSSING
ON WEDNESDAY. WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITHIN THE LOWER LEVELS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO HELP MOISTURE TO STREAM ACROSS INDIANA,
SUPPORTING DEW POINTS REACHING THE 60S AND OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN.
MODELS FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
PRECIPITATION AND A TREND TOWARD SATURATION WITH PWAT VALUES OVER
1.5 INCHES. THIS IS ON DAYS 5-6, THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SPAGHETTI
MODEL PLOTS FOR THE GFS ENSEMBLE SHOW A WIDE VARIANCE IN SOLUTIONS
WHICH HIGHLIGHTS THE HIGHER UNCERTAINTY. AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING
INTO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CONUS SHOULD PROVIDE THE BULK OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LIMITED ON HOW MUCH
MOISTURE GETS PULLED NORTHWARD WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE
NORTHWEST. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS
LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH OF A COOLDOWN WILL OCCUR
THOUGH.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
IMPACTS:
- NONE; VFR EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL INDIANA/S
WEATHER. STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALSO PROVIDE FURTHER SUBSIDENCE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CU POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AS DEW POINT
TEMPS ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THUS AFTER A MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT, SCT CU WILL BE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND
DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MELO
LONG TERM...PUMA/MELO
AVIATION...PUMA
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