459
FXUS63 KIND 031648
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1248 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN INDIANA
- NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
- DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 955 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT HAS BROUGHT
A FEW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN INDIANA WITH
CURRENT SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING A POCKET OF 500 J/KG OF ML CAPE.
EXPECT TO SEE CONTINUED ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH
PEAK COVERAGE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THIS RAIN WITH MOST MODELS SHOWING LITTLE TO
NO PRECIPITATION, BUT WITH THIS PERSISTENT FEATURE COMBINED WITH DEW
POINTS RUNNING 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY, FEEL
PRETTY CONFIDENT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY.
TOTAL COVERAGE WILL LIKELY ONLY END UP BEING 10-15 PERCENT OF THE
FORECAST AREA, BUT SOME POCKETS OF 0.5"+ CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
TEMPERATURES HAVE RAPIDLY RISEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S EXPECTED. SCATTERED DIURNAL CU IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH
SATURATION AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG WITH ANY CLOUDS
DUE TO ONGOING OR NEW CONVECTION.
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE CENTERED OVER NJ AND NYC. THIS HIGH WAS EXTENDING ITS
INFLUENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY, RESULTING IN
WARMER BUT LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS INDIANA. GOES16 SHOWS SOME
HIGH CI OVER THE SE HALF OF INDIANA WHILE THE REST OF INDIANA WAS
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ALOFT, WATER VAPOR SHOWED STRONG RIDGING
IN PLACE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THAT WAS STEERING ANY FORCING DYNAMICS
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS, UPPER MIDWEST AND ONTARIO. OTHERWISE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WAS FOUND OVER THE PLAINS BUILDING EASTWARD. DEW POINTS
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ARE HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 50S.
MODELS TODAY AND TONIGHT SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER RIDGING TO THE WEST
WILL BUILD EASTWARD...SETTLING OVER INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA. THE
SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO REORGANIZE OVER THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES AND CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE EXPECTED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME CU IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED. THUS SOME
AFTERNOON CU WILL BE EXPECTED. OVERALL, SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
SUNNY. AS HEATING IS LOST THIS EVENING, EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL AIR MASS HIGHS WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE PERSISTENCE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. LOOK FOR LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
A DRY AND WARM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER INDIANA ON SATURDAY...MOVING TO THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY. THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY ON THE WINDWARD
SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING DYNAMICS
IS ALLOWED TO PASS DURING THIS TIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY
COLUMN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CU
DEVELOPMENT. THUS MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS WILL BE
EXPECTED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES NEAR PERSISTENCE. AGAIN THESE VALUES
WILL BE ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR HERE. MODELS SUGGEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEING INFLUENCED BY A UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES, WITH A TROUGH AXIS POISED TO
PUSH ACROSS INDIANA ON TUESDAY. LOWER LEVELS SUGGEST SURFACE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA ON
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD SATURATION ON MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOW
SOME LAYERS OF SATURATION ON TUESDAY. PWATS SUGGEST PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH VALUES NEAR 1.70 ON MONDAY NIGHT. MID LEVELS
MOISTURE FIELDS ALSO SHOW THE ARRIVAL OF GULF MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH ARRIVING AND COMBINING WITH MOISTURE FROM THE NORTH ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. THUS CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN
CONTINUES TO GROW AND HIGHEST POPS WILL BE USED DURING THIS TIME.
EXPECT A COOL DOWN WITH TEMPS AS COLD AIR ADVECTION, CLOUDS AND RAIN
ALL COME INTO PLAY DURING THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN DURING THIS TIME WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. MODELS SUGGEST IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, A MUCH COOLER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SETTLE ACROSS INDIANA. THIS APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY ANOTHER
STRONG RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND ALLOWING LEE SIDE
SUBSIDENCE AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE MOVE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INDIANA. HERE AGAIN WE WILL LOOK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS.
AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
IMPACTS:
-NONE
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH A
RETURN IN CU TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER
THIS EVENING TOWARDS HUF OR LAF, BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT
EVEN A PROB30 MENTION. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH A
PREDOMINATELY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...WHITE
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...WHITE
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