026
FXUS63 KIND 080705
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
305 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SUNNY AND COOLER TODAY.
- POTENTIAL FOR FROST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S POSSIBLE.
- DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY, WITH GRADUALLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2025
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE OVER MN AND NW WI. THIS HIGH WAS EXPANDING ITS INFLUENCE EAST
TO MI AND INDIANA. YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT HAD DEPARTED EAST TO THE
APPALACHIANS. THE HIGH WAS PROVIDING COOLER AND LESS HUMID NORTH
WINDS. GOES19 SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND MOST OF
THE MIDWEST. ALOFT, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE
OVER INDIANA ALONG WITH A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS STATES. THIS RIDGING WAS SLOWLY PUSHING EAST TOWARD INDIANA
AND THE OHIO VALLEY.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
QUIET, COOLER AND PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE MODELS SUGGEST THE STRONG RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES WILL BE DRIFTING EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LEE SIDE SUBSIDENCE IN PLAY
ACROSS INDIANA. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH WILL ALSO SLOWLY PUSH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT, SLOWLY ALLOWING OUR SURFACE
FLOW TO CHANGE FROM NORTHERLY TODAY TO NORTHEASTERLY LATE TONIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A DRY COLUMN AMID ALL THIS
SUBSIDENCE, THUS A SUNNY DAY AND CLEAR NIGHT WILL BE EXPECTED. GIVEN
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ONGOING, HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WILL
BE EXPECTED WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2025
PROLONGED DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO RETURN THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA MUCH OF
THE TIME, THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO MONITOR EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND WITH SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN HANDLING A QUICK
MOVING UPPER WAVE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY BE NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL TO END THE
WORK WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 AND LOWS AS LOW AS
THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED POCKETS
OF FROST IN SHELTERED AREAS NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS, BUT
TEMPERATURES ARE TOO BORDERLINE TO INCLUDE AT THE MOMENT. THE MOST
LIKELY AREA AND TIME FOR FROST AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE IN THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE IN GENERAL SUGGESTS THE BUILDING OF A RELATIVELY NARROW,
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WOULD BRING TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS GRADUALLY CLIMBING BACK WELL INTO THE 70S. LOWS
WOULD LIKELY STILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S GIVEN
ONGOING DROUGHT AND ACCOMPANYING ENHANCED DIURNAL RANGES.
THE ONLY OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
MAY BE FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY, WHEN A QUICK MOVING UPPER
LEVEL WAVE IS DEPICTED PASSING SOMEWHERE NEAR OR THROUGH THE REGION
IN VARIOUS MODELS, THOUGH DISCREPANCIES ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING, NOT
TO MENTION RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES, REMAIN SIGNIFICANT, AND
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS SUSPECT. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW - AND REGARDLESS, ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE WOULD BE
LIGHT AND NON-IMPACTFUL. AT THIS TIME, THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT WILL
SIMPLY BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
IMPACTS:
- VFR CONDITIONS THIS TAF PERIOD.
DISCUSSION:
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BUILD ACROSS
INDIANA AND THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GOES19 SHOWS CLEAR
SKIES UPSTREAM OF THE TAF SITES AND THESE ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30
HOURS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY DRY COLUMN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...PUMA
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