572
FXUS63 KIND 180504
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
104 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ALONG
WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH.
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
- TURNING COOLER FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
OVERALL FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR ONE MORE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE SYNOPTIC INFLECTION POINT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
UPPER RIDGE AND APPROACHING/DEEPENING TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST PERIOD WITH LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS, WITH MAINLY
5-10 MPH SOUTHERLY FLOW...BEFORE IMPRESSIVE CYCLOGENESIS PASSING JUST
TO OUR NORTHWEST TOMORROW BRINGS ROBUST BREEZES. OVERPERFORMANCE
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION EARLIER THIS EVENING MAY SHAKE OUT
ISOLATED VIRGA OVER THE CWA'S WESTERN HALF, BUT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
IN NO MEASURABLE SPRINKLES TO MAINTAIN POPS BELOW 10 OVERNIGHT.
STILL EXPECT DECREASE OF MID/HIGH CLOUD LATER TONIGHT AS MODEST WAVE
EMBEDDED IN UPPER INFLECTION POINT PASSES AND INDUCES WEAK
DIFFERENTIAL NVA, WITH MORE SCATTERED HIGH DECKS EXPECTED PRE-DAWN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM 55F NEAR MUNCIE TO AROUND 60F FOR KNOX
COUNTY AND VICINITY.
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
THROUGH TONIGHT...
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
EXIT OFF TO THE EAST, AND A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH.
HOWEVER, ONLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE. THE RESULT
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 50S.
SATURDAY...
THE MORNING WILL BE QUIET AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST AND BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE.
DURING THE AFTERNOON, AN INITIAL SURFACE TROUGH AND INITIAL ROUND OF
UPPER ENERGY WILL GENERATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW FAR SOUTHEAST DECENT
FORCING WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH FORCING
SHOULD REACH UP TO THE NORTHWEST HALF OR OF THE AREA TO GO WITH
LIKELY AND HIGHER POPS. THE SOUTHEAST HALF WILL SEE WEAKER FORCING
AND ONLY CHANCE POPS.
SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP, ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
DEPENDING ON THE THICKNESS OF THE CLOUDS AND ARRIVAL TIME OF RAIN,
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE. INDY'S RECORD HIGH IS 84
(1953), AND HIGHS AROUND 80 LOOK REASONABLE THERE. FARTHER
SOUTHEAST, HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED.
SATURDAY NIGHT...
AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST. THE PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA. 850MB WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 50KT.
INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT FORECASTS SHOW STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THE AREA. THE STRENGTHENING SYSTEM WILL HAVE PLENTIFUL FORCING.
THESE WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN, SO WILL GO HIGH POPS ALL AREAS.
AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES IN LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT, THE SETUP
WILL BE A LOW CAPE/HIGHER SHEAR SITUATION. IF THE LINE OF STORMS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BECOMES/REMAINS ORGANIZED, LOCALLY SEVERE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES FROM MESOVORTICIES
IN A QLCS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE THAT EVERYTHING WILL LINE UP PROPERLY
ISN'T HIGH. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CHANCE.
LARGER SCALE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING NORTHWEST FOR THE AXIS OF
HEAVY RAIN, WITH ONLY THE FAR NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA HAVING THE
HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS. THE NAM IS FARTHER SOUTHEAST. HREF
PROBABILITY MATCHED MEANS SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED AMOUNTS
OVER 2 INCHES IN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THE GOOD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SOME FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING DEFINITELY GIVE
THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
THE DRY GROUND CAN TAKE A LOT OF RAIN, ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST. EVEN
SO, THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND REFINE AS NECESSARY.
WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW AND DECENT WINDS ALOFT, SOME GUSTY WINDS
MAY OCCUR EVEN OUTSIDE OF STORMS.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
SUNDAY...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY, ENDING THE RAIN AS
IT DOES. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE STRONG SURFACE LOW EXITS TO THE NORTH, AND STRONGER WINDS WILL
REMAIN ALOFT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS IN THE 30
TO 40 MPH RANGE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL WITH THE LINGERING CLOUDS/RAIN, WITH
READINGS AROUND 50 DEGREES. AS THE RAIN ENDS AND CLOUDS DIMINISH,
READINGS WILL REBOUND TO AROUND 60 MOST AREAS.
MONDAY AND BEYOND...
A COUPLE OF UPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE STRONGER FORCING FROM THESE LOOK TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA, AND MOISTURE ISN'T IMPRESSIVE. WILL THIS GO ONLY CHANCE OR
LOWER POPS AROUND MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN AROUND THURSDAY. SPECIFIC
TIMING WILL BECOME CLEARER WITH LATER GUIDANCE.
WITH THE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH, WINDS WILL BE MORE ACTIVE WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MORE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S INTO THE 40S.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 104 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025
IMPACTS:
- WIND GUSTS UP TO 25KTS MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
- SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
- DETERIORATING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BY LATE EVENING
DISCUSSION:
THICKER CIRRUS DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER WAVE PASSES THROUGH. SKIES WILL BRIEFLY CLEAR DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM
THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY RATHER QUICKLY THIS MORNING...
PEAKING AROUND 25KTS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
PROGRESSIVELY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z.
RAIN AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY THE EVENING
AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF 2-3 HOUR BREAK IN RAIN AT KBMG AND KIND AS THE
LOW ORGANIZES BEFORE RAIN EXPANDS BACK EAST LATE TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL DROP OFF THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE IN THE PREDAWN HOURS
SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. CEILINGS WILL
DROP TO MVFR LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...AGM
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...RYAN
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