913
FXUS63 KIND 200141
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
941 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDS DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING
- BREEZY AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY
- SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 941 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE MOVED OUT OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. IN IT'S WAKE TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED AT MOST LOCATIONS
TO UNDER 10 MPH AND WILL FURTHER DROP TO AROUND 3-5 MPH TOWARDS
MORNING, SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST WINDS ACCORDINGLY AND
DROPPED THE WIND GUSTS. WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT FROM W-SW
OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE MS
VALLEY SHIFTS GRADUALLY EAST.
WITH THE EARLIER ONSET OF LIGHTER WINDS, TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO
FALLEN QUICKER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. HAVE OPTED TO ADD PATCHY
FROST WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 30S FOR MOSTLY RIVER
VALLEYS OF NORTH/WEST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...
AS AN UPPER JET AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST, RAIN
WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO
EAST AS WELL, BUT THE CLEARING LINE WILL NOT GET TO THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA BY SUNSET.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE, WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE
STILL AROUND. HOWEVER, PEAK GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOME AND WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SOME IN THE WEST WITH THE DECREASING
CLOUDS, BUT EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO CURRENT VALUES.
TONIGHT...
THE REMAINING CLOUDS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST. A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN, DIMINISHING THE WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO MAINLY THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES. FAVORED COLD AREAS COULD GET INTO THE MID 30S.
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG, BUT COVERAGE IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION.
MONDAY...
A DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. MIXING PLUS INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW SOME WIND GUSTS
AROUND 25 MPH, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SUNSHINE AND WARM ADVECTION WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S FOR
HIGHS.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. BEST FORCING
WITH THIS WILL BE NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA, CLOSER TO AN UPPER LOW
THAT WILL BE ON ITS WAY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL. WILL HAVE SOME LOW POPS MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
HIGHEST OF THESE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH.
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES, SOME ENERGY COULD
ROTATE AROUND IT INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN COULD MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA, BUT LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN MOISTURE AND FORCING LEADS TO
KEEPING A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE SEASONABLE IN
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD KEEP THE
AREA QUIET. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ALOFT. COOLER AIR MOVING IN
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60.
LOWS IN THE 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT MAY LEAD TO FROST
FORMATION AND EVEN FREEZING TEMPERATURES, DEPENDING ON WINDS AND SKY
COVER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
QUESTIONS REMAIN ON HOW THE UPPER PATTERN WILL EVOLVE, WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW AND PERHAPS A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH. THESE ALONG WITH A SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
COULD BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME, BUT SPECIFICS ON
WHEN BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR REMAIN QUITE UNCERTAIN. WILL CONTINUE
TO BROADBRUSH LOW POPS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION (00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 738 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
IMPACTS:
- LLWS TOMORROW NIGHT AT KIND
- WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION:
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS, IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE
EXITED STAGE RIGHT AS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. IN IT'S WAKE TRANQUIL AVIATION WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A FEW
LINGERING SHALLOW CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SHOULD BE DONE NLT 03Z. WINDS
HAVE ALREADY DROPPED AT MOST LOCATIONS TO UNDER 10 KTS AND WILL
FURTHER DROP TO BETWEEN 3-5 KTS TOWARDS MORNING. WIND DIRECTION WILL
SHIFT FROM WEST TO SW OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
CURRENTLY OVER THE MS VALLEY SHIFTS GRADUALLY EAST.
THE LEE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WHILE SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE LOWER PLAINS/UPPER MO VALLEY BY TOMORROW MORNING, WHILE
UNDERGOING COLD FRONTOGENESIS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT/SURFACE LOW
WILL THEN SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE LOWER MO/UPPER MS VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. COMBINED WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE SE CONUS, THE NET RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-
15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF
SITES. BY MONDAY NIGHT, SURFACE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOME, BUT
INCREASING WINDS AT 2000 AGL (UP TO 50 KTS) WILL LEAD TO LLWS FOR
IND DURING THE CARGO OPS. ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN APPROACH LATE MONDAY NIGHT, HAVE OPTED TO
LEAVE THIS OUT FOR THIS FORECAST FOR KIND.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...CROSBIE
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...CROSBIE
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