241
FXUS63 KIND 200443
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1243 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDS DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING
- BREEZY AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY
- SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 941 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE MOVED OUT OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. IN IT'S WAKE TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED AT MOST LOCATIONS
TO UNDER 10 MPH AND WILL FURTHER DROP TO AROUND 3-5 MPH TOWARDS
MORNING, SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST WINDS ACCORDINGLY AND
DROPPED THE WIND GUSTS. WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT FROM W-SW
OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE MS
VALLEY SHIFTS GRADUALLY EAST.
WITH THE EARLIER ONSET OF LIGHTER WINDS, TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO
FALLEN QUICKER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. HAVE OPTED TO ADD PATCHY
FROST WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 30S FOR MOSTLY RIVER
VALLEYS OF NORTH/WEST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...
AS AN UPPER JET AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST, RAIN
WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO
EAST AS WELL, BUT THE CLEARING LINE WILL NOT GET TO THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA BY SUNSET.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE, WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE
STILL AROUND. HOWEVER, PEAK GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOME AND WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SOME IN THE WEST WITH THE DECREASING
CLOUDS, BUT EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO CURRENT VALUES.
TONIGHT...
THE REMAINING CLOUDS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST. A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN, DIMINISHING THE WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO MAINLY THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES. FAVORED COLD AREAS COULD GET INTO THE MID 30S.
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG, BUT COVERAGE IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION.
MONDAY...
A DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. MIXING PLUS INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW SOME WIND GUSTS
AROUND 25 MPH, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SUNSHINE AND WARM ADVECTION WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S FOR
HIGHS.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. BEST FORCING
WITH THIS WILL BE NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA, CLOSER TO AN UPPER LOW
THAT WILL BE ON ITS WAY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL. WILL HAVE SOME LOW POPS MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
HIGHEST OF THESE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH.
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES, SOME ENERGY COULD
ROTATE AROUND IT INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN COULD MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA, BUT LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN MOISTURE AND FORCING LEADS TO
KEEPING A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE SEASONABLE IN
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD KEEP THE
AREA QUIET. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ALOFT. COOLER AIR MOVING IN
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60.
LOWS IN THE 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT MAY LEAD TO FROST
FORMATION AND EVEN FREEZING TEMPERATURES, DEPENDING ON WINDS AND SKY
COVER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
QUESTIONS REMAIN ON HOW THE UPPER PATTERN WILL EVOLVE, WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW AND PERHAPS A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH. THESE ALONG WITH A SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
COULD BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME, BUT SPECIFICS ON
WHEN BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR REMAIN QUITE UNCERTAIN. WILL CONTINUE
TO BROADBRUSH LOW POPS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
IMPACTS:
- LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE BY LATE THIS EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS
- WIND GUSTS PEAKING AT 20 TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN AGAIN
TONIGHT
DISCUSSION:
THE ARRIVAL OF A SURFACE RIDGE HAS BROUGHT CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
W/SW WINDS. OTHER THAN THIN MID LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING BY TO THE NORTH
LATER TODAY...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE WILL INCREASE WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AS THEY BACK TO SOUTHERLY. PEAK GUSTS AT 20 TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
BEFORE THE GUSTS DROP OFF WITH SUNSET.
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED...EXPECT A FEW HOURS WITH INCREASED MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AS IT PASSES. WIND GUSTS WILL RETURN BY LATE EVENING
AND EXTEND OVERNIGHT...VEERING TO W/SW BEHIND THE FRONT PREDAWN
TUESDAY. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY WITH LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR DEVELOPING AT ALL TERMINALS BY LATE EVENING AND
LASTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...CROSBIE
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...RYAN
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