322
FXUS63 KIND 210431
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1231 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT
- WINDY CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH, ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
- SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH
FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 944 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS HAS LED TO A
DEEPER LAYER OF SATURATION AND THEREFOR A LARGER CORRIDOR OF CLOUD
COVER, AS SEEN ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS WESTERN IL. FOR
THIS REASON, POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT.
ALSO OF NOTE, IS A STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LLJ AND ELEVATED LCLS
WITHIN THIS LLJ OF WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS
WITHIN THESE SHOWERS OF 30 TO 40KT. THESE GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE
VERY SPORADIC AND DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF MIXING THAT OCCURS
BENEATH THE CLOUD LAYER.
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...
SUNNY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT...
THE EVENING WILL BE QUIET WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SOME. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH, BUT MOISTURE IS
LIMITED. SATURATION WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID LEVELS AND ABOVE.
THE BEST OF WHAT MOISTURE THERE IS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA. WILL GO WITH SOME CHANCE CATEGORY POPS THERE, WITH
LOWER POPS FARTHER SOUTH. CLOUDS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE
FRONT.
STRONG WINDS WILL BE NOT FAR ABOVE THE SURFACE. MUCH OF THE WIND
WILL BE KEPT ALOFT BY AN INVERSION. HOWEVER, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN INVERTED V SHAPE AS THE FRONT/RAIN APPROACH. THE EVAPORATIVE
COOLING FROM THE RAIN FALLING FROM MID LEVEL CLOUDS COULD HELP BRING
SOME OF THE WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH
POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.
TUESDAY...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY, TAKING MOST
OF THE CLOUDS WITH IT. DURING THE DAY, A SURFACE TROUGH AND SURGE OF
COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS.
FORCING FROM AN UPPER TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH FORCING FROM THE
SURFACE FEATURE IN THE AFTERNOON, WHICH MIGHT BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A SHOWER OR TWO IN THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA. WILL HAVE SOME LOW POPS THERE.
A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED WITH MIXING DOWN OF SOME
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL BRING WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH TO THE AREA.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
THE UPPER LOW NORTHEAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATE AROUND IT AS THE LOW DRIFTS EAST. WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE, MAINLY CLOUDS WILL BE THE RESULT ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE AROUND
THE FAR NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND THOSE CLOUDS AROUND, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
THURSDAY...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY, AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL BRING QUIET CONDITIONS TO
THE ENTIRE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 30S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING, BUT WINDS MAY REMAIN UP ENOUGH SO THAT FROST WOULD
ONLY OCCUR IN SHELTERED AREAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 ONCE AGAIN.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...
A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE, A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WILL HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. MODELS ARE STILL
STRUGGLING WITH HOW THESE EVOLVE, SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGHER THAN
USUAL FOR TIMING OF THE HIGHEST POPS.
A SLOWING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED, SO POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO BROADBRUSH LOW POPS FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.
NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
AFTERWARD, A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED. HIGHS BY MONDAY MAY APPROACH 70 DEGREES FOR SOME AREAS.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
IMPACTS:
- LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH 08-09Z
- BRIEF WIND GUSTS PEAKING NEAR 30KTS IN THE 06-08Z TIMEFRAME WITH
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
- WIND GUSTS OF 20-30KT THIS AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION:
A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS RAPIDLY EXPANDING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING ILLINOIS. THESE CLOUDS
WILL SWING ACROSS THE TERMINALS INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS WITH A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES AT KIND AND KLAF. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST
TO NEAR 30KTS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
BEFORE WINDS DROP BACK TO AROUND 10KTS AFTER 09Z.
SKIES WILL CLEAR PRIOR TO DAYBREAK AS SURFACE RIDGING REESTABLISHES.
DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE COLD ADVECTION BY MIDDAY WITH
STEADILY INCREASING CU AND A MID LEVEL DECK AS A WELL ESTABLISHED
COLD POOL ALOFT EXPANDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS AT
20 TO 30KTS FROM THE WEST.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...UPDIKE
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...RYAN
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