981
FXUS63 KIND 221735
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
135 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT, FREEZE WATCH THURSDAY NIGHT
- ADDITIONAL FROST CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.
PEAK WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH SO FAR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET WHEN DIURNAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR
DECOUPLING TO BEGIN. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINANT THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH TOMORROW WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHILE THE SURFACE FLOW REMAINS MORE
WESTERLY.
A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 2AM TO 9AM TONIGHT NEAR AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR WHERE AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED
TO FORM AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S AND SKIES CLEAR.
THERE REMAINS SOME CONCERN ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE
ADVISORY THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST ELEVATED ENOUGH TO LIMIT
COVERAGE OF FROST, BUT THINK THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A HEADLINE, ESPECIALLY IN MORE SHELTERED AREAS. WITH THE SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY WESTERLY, THE EAST SIDES OF BUILDINGS WILL BE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FROST FORMATION ALONG WITH DITCHES AND OTHER
FAVORED FROST FORMATION AREAS. A FEW AREAS COULD DROP BELOW
FREEZING, BUT EXPECT THAT TO BE VERY ISOLATED.
THURSDAY.
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW OUTSIDE OF
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHERE
CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUE. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL AGAIN DEEPEN TO
AROUND 3-4KFT TOMORROW WITH WINDS ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER AROUND 25
MPH ALLOWING FOR OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH AT THE SURFACE.
GUSTS WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE LLJ
WILL BE STRONGEST.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS DROP OFF THURSDAY NIGHT NEAR THE SURFACE WITH
BROAD BUT WEAK SUBSIDENCE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA HELPING TO BRING
THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE IN SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SOME HIGHLY SHELTERED AREAS COULD SEE A HARD FREEZE OF 28, BUT
THAT IS ON THE LOWER END OF THE MODEL SPREAD. HIGHLY URBAN AREAS
SUCH AS INDIANAPOLIS AND BLOOMINGTON MAY REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING,
BUT EVEN TOWARDS THE SUBURBS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY.
WITH THAT IN MIND, WE'VE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
INDIANA WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT SOME AREAS MAY REMAIN JUST ABOVE
FREEZING, BUT STILL SEEING WIDESPREAD FROST.
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S WITH THEIR ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES ON THE WARMER END
OF THE MODEL SUITE. SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE
WRF-ARW AND RDPS WHICH TYPICALLY HAVE A SIGNIFICANT COOL BIAS MAY BE
CLOSER TO REALITY AS THEY HANDLE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
EVENTS LIKE THIS MUCH BETTER. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS WHICH HELPS INCREASE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS COOLER SOLUTION.
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT BUT WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO PICK UP AGAIN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND
PRESSURE GRADIENTS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN. MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS GRADUALLY MOVES TO THE
EAST. COOLEST TEMPERATURES WIALONGLL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AND THE CLOUD COVER WILL
ARRIVE LATEST.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE EARLY WEEKEND SYSTEM
AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER SYSTEM LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER INTO
THE WEEK. LOOKING AT THE DIFFERENT DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM THE ROCKIES
TO MINNESOTA TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND
LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE MEMBER LOW LOCATIONS FURTHER HIGHLIGHTS THE
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY. WHERE WE DO HAVE SOME CONFIDENCE IS COOLER
TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKELY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL. CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY HIGHER
EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH SOME SIGNS OF DRIER WEATHER TOWARDS THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. DETAILS SUCH AS AMOUNTS AND TIMING WILL
BEGIN TO BECOME MORE CLEAR AS WE MOVE LATER INTO THE WEEK.
AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
IMPACTS:
- WESTERLY WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30KTS THROUGH SUNSET, RETURNING TOMORROW
AT LAF AND IND
- MVFR CIGS BECOMING VFR AFTER 21Z
DISCUSSION:
PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS HAVE CONTINUED INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND IND
AND LAF, BUT THOSE CIGS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO LIFT TOWARDS VFR
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE CLEARING TOWARDS 00Z. WESTERLY WIND
GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UPWARDS OF 30 KTS, ESPECIALLY AT LAF AND
IND THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE DROPPING TO NEAR CALM TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.
WIND GUSTS THEN WILL RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE AT LAF.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ028>030-
035>037-039-043>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
SHORT TERM...WHITE
LONG TERM...WHITE
AVIATION...WHITE
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