375
FXUS63 KIND 230647
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
247 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FROST ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING, FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
- ADDITIONAL FROST CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD UPPER LOW OVER
WESTERN QUEBEC HAS LIFTED OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. WHILE WINDS HAVE
LARGELY REMAINED AT 4-8MPH OVER MUCH OF THE REGION SO FAR...
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT HAD ANY TROUBLE FALLING INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S OVER MANY LOCATIONS.
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE TAKING OVER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM PULLS FURTHER AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...THE PRIMARY FOCUS
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE ONGOING FROST ADVISORY FOR THIS
MORNING AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING THROUGH DAYBREAK...AREAS OF FROST
WILL EXPAND WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IS ALREADY BELOW 40 DEGREES WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY AND THE URBAN AREAS OF THE
INDY METRO. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLIDE BACK A FEW MORE DEGREES
THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH MOST STARTING THE MORNING IN THE 33 TO 37
DEGREE RANGE. A FEW OF THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS WILL APPROACH THE
FREEZING MARK AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FROST ADVISORY THROUGH
13Z.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE DAY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
DIURNAL CU ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM WITH
ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY W/NW WINDS LIKELY PEAKING AT 20 TO
25MPH. LOW LEVEL THERMALS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE RIDGE AXIS CENTERS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT OVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH WIDESPREAD FROST ACCRUAL. LOWS WILL FALL TO AROUND 30 BY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN AT THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND HAVE A CHANCE AT A
HARD FREEZE. CONSIDERING ALL OF THE ABOVE...HAVE UPGRADED THE FREEZE
WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING FOR ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
A COOL AND ACTIVE PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS AND FREQUENT CHANCES FOR RAIN.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
FRIDAY STARTS OFF WITH A FREEZE WARNING FOR ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA
AS MANY LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE THEIR FIRST FREEZE OF THE
SEASON. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN OVERHEAD SHOULD RESULT IN OPTIMAL
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WIDESPREAD
FREEZING CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED WITH SOME HIGHLY SHELTERED
AREAS POTENTIALLY DROPPING AS LOW AS 28 DEGREES...BUT THAT IS ON THE
LOWER END OF THE MODEL SPREAD. HIGHLY URBAN AREAS SUCH AS
INDIANAPOLIS AND BLOOMINGTON MAY REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING, BUT
EVEN TOWARDS THE SUBURBS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY.
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER WINDS
SHOULD BE ELEVATED JUST ENOUGH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST TO
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW FREEZING IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING
MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER FREEZE. MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60... STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPCOMING ACTIVE
PATTERN. OVERALL TROUGHING SHOULD DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES PERIOD
NEXT WEEK AND INTO EARLY NOVEMBER WITH NUMEROUS SYSTEMS FORECAST TO
PASS THROUGH OR NEAR THE STATE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A PATTERN
SUPPORTIVE OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND FREQUENT RAIN CHANCES, BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE EXACT EVOLUTION AND FINER DETAILS.
INCREASING POPS FROM 20-30% TO 30-50% SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO INCREASE IN LIGHT RAIN OVERSPREADING
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE ARE STILL TIMING AND TRACK
DIFFERENCES AMONG DIFFERENT MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, SO WILL HOLD OFF ON INCREASING POPS FURTHER FOR NOW. IN
GENERAL, A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY WITH A W-E FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH ADVECTS MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER THE BOUNDARY AND INTO
INDIANA. BETTER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE STATE; KEEPING HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER. LIGHTER RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THE TIME OF ARRIVAL AND NORTHWARD EXTEND OF
THE RAIN THREAT. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS.
UPPER TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
REFLECTION DEVELOPING OVER INDIANA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON EXACT TIMING, TRACK, AND EVOLUTION OF THE
STORM SYSTEM, BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT MOST OF THE STATE WILL
BE CLOUDY AND WET MID NEXT WEEK.
CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES FAIRLY LOW WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
HALLOWEEN: CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO DETERMINE IF HALLOWEEN WILL BE
RAINY OR DRY. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NOVEMBER WITH INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IN THE
NOVEMBER 1-3 TIMEFRAME. WILL BE WATCHING THE NEXT SEVERAL SYSTEMS
CLOSELY AS ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE TIMING, TRACK, AND EVOLUTION OF
THESE SYSTEMS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
IMPACTS:
- PEAK WIND GUSTS AROUND 20KT THIS AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION:
STRATOCU HAS LIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW LIFTS AWAY SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS AGAIN LATER TODAY ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LOWER THAN THE
LAST FEW DAYS. EXPECT GUSTS TO PEAK AROUND 20KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
OTHER THAN A FEW AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPING NEAR KIND ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE DEPARTING CLOUD SHIELD...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ028>030-
035>037-039-043>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...CM
AVIATION...RYAN
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