422
FXUS63 KIND 241030
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
630 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZE WARNING EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
- PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING...
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA HAVE DISSIPATED, AND
THE CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.
SOME CIRRUS WILL DRIFT INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST
AREA. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST, AND THE FREEZE WARNING WILL
CONTINUE AS IS.
TODAY...
CENTRAL INDIANA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ALOFT, AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE THROUGH AT THE SURFACE. QUIET CONDITIONS WILL THUS
CONTINUE. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW SOME CUMULUS TO POP
UP, AND CIRRUS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE WEST.
SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A COLD START, BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW A
RECOVERY INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
TONIGHT...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST.
THESE SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOME THERE, WITH THE FULL
IMPACT DEPENDING ON HOW THICK THE CLOUDS END UP.
FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST, FEWER CLOUDS MAY ALLOW READINGS TO FALL TO
AROUND FREEZING AGAIN. FROST IS ALSO LIKELY IN SOME AREAS. WITH
FREEZING CONDITIONS ONGOING CURRENTLY, WILL SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT
BEFORE DEALING WITH ADDITIONAL FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
A COOL AND ACTIVE PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS AND MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN.
SATURDAY...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER
FROSTY MORNING ON SATURDAY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST KEEP SOUTHWESTERN AND
WESTERN INDIANA IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40, WHILE ALONG AND
NORTHEAST OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR, CLEARER SKIES ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60... STILL A FEW DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS INTO AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WITH A W-E FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ADVECTS MOISTURE
NORTHWARD OVER THE BOUNDARY AND INTO INDIANA. BETTER FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE STATE; KEEPING
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. LATEST
GUIDANCE IS SLOWING DOWN THE TIME OF ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND ALSO SHOWING A SHARPER RAINFALL CUT OFF ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE. SOUTHERN INDIANA HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING, WHILE THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND
POINTS NORTHWARD MAY REMAIN DRY OR ONLY OBSERVE VERY LIGHT RAIN AT
TIMES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS
DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPCOMING ACTIVE PATTERN. OVERALL
TROUGHING SHOULD DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES PERIOD NEXT WEEK AND INTO
EARLY NOVEMBER WITH NUMEROUS SYSTEMS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH OR
NEAR THE STATE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A PATTERN SUPPORTIVE OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND FREQUENT RAIN CHANCES, BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE EXISTS
IN THE EXACT EVOLUTION AND FINER DETAILS.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO FOCUS ON ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE TROUGH,
INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE IN THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
THERE STILL ARE DISCREPANCIES AMONG MODELS ON TIMING, TRACK, AND
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. KEEPING POPS UNDER 50% TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM. NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT OF A WEEK AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE
LONGER DRY PERIODS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. OUTSIDE OF ANY RAIN, COOLER
AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL STICK AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
WEEK CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES FAIRLY LOW
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
HALLOWEEN: CONFIDENCE IS LOW GOING TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NOVEMBER
WITH INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IN THE NOVEMBER 1-3
TIMEFRAME. WILL BE WATCHING THE NEXT SEVERAL SYSTEMS CLOSELY AS ANY
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE TIMING, TRACK, AND EVOLUTION OF THESE SYSTEMS
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE THE EXTENDED FORECAST. AS OF NOW, THE
HALLOWEEN FORECAST LOOKS COOL AND MAINLY DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 629 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
IMPACTS:
- NONE
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL POP UP TODAY, AND CIRRUS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE WEST. TONIGHT, MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. LIGHT WINDS EARLY WILL INCREASE SOME DURING THE DAY, BUT
SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10KT OR LESS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AGAIN AFTER
SUNSET.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...CM
AVIATION...50
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