679
FXUS63 KIND 041723
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1223 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY
- WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH/EAST
- NOTICEABLY COOLER STARTING SUNDAY...CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 959 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BRING A MILD AND PLEASANT LATE
AUTUMN DAY TO CENTRAL INDIANA, WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID
60S ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ACROSS FAIRLY PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE DESPITE
SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL JET STREAK ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN BRANCH OF THE JET ALOFT.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GUST A BIT LATER THIS MORNING, PERHAPS BRIEFLY
PEAKING IN THE 20+ MPH RANGE IN SOME AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS WITHIN STRONG QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THAT SAID, STRONG JET DYNAMICS WILL
ALLOW FOR KINKS IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO SLIGHT DIFFERENCES
ACROSS THE STATE AND THE PASSAGE OF BROKEN CLOUD COVER ALOFT.
WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS ALLOWED FOR SURFACE PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF INDIANA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER, WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSAGES TO THE NORTH WITHIN THE STRONGER FLOW ALLOWS WILL PUT
CENTRAL INDIANA STILL ON THE THRESHOLD BETWEEN THESE FEATURES,
LEADING TO GREATER PGF LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT MIXING SOME, BUT WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
BE BREEZY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OUT OF THE SSW AT 10-15MPH THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE WAVE NEARS, A GREATER
LLJ IS LIKELY TO FORM IN THE EVENING LEADING TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE SEASONAL TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WITHOUT
STRONG DECOUPLING. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE, MODERATE DRY AIR ADVECTION AND
GREATER MIXING NEAR THE LLJ COULD ALLOW FOR BRIEF PERIODS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF RH VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT IN COMBINATION
WITH WINDS GREATER THAN 20MPH. DUE TO THE LACK OF ALIGNMENT BETWEEN
HIGHER GUSTS AND LOWEST RH VALUES, FIRE HAZARDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE HIGH, BUT THERE STILL WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS OF ELEVATED RISK FOR
QUICK FIRE SPREAD LATER TODAY.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL TREND FROM A MORE
ZONAL FLOW INTO LATE THIS WEEK, TO AN EARLY-WINTER TYPE DEEP TROUGH
FOR NOVEMBER'S SECOND WEEK. SEVERAL WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL TRACK
EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. FIRST, A SEASONABLY STRONG SURFACE LOW
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WILL DRAG ITS MOISTURE-STARVED
AND RAIN-FREE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH CORRESPONDING SOUTHWEST BREEZES BRINGING AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY NEARING 70F. SECOND, A MORE NORTHERN-TRACKING
LOW DEEPENING INTO EASTERN ONTARIO FRIDAY...SHOULD ADVANCE SLOWLY
ENOUGH TO ALLOW SSW SURFACE FLOW TO RETURN DEWPOINTS TO 55-60F AND
HOPEFULLY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CWA'S
SOUTHEASTERN HALF. ISOLATED THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY...AND
WHILE AMPLE WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED, APPEARS ANY NON-ZERO INSTABILITY
MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY ORGANIZED STRONGER STORMS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
A THIRD WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ASSIST THE OVERALL PATTERN'S TRANSITION
TO NOTICEABLY COLDER CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER
VORTEX SPINNING NEAR JAMES BAY WILL COMBINE WITH AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA TO DIRECT ARCTIC AIR DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS
THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE RESULTANT BROAD/DEEP UPPER TROUGH LOWERING
1000-500 MB THICKNESSES BELOW 528 DM / AND H850 TEMPERATURES TO
NEGATIVE 6 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER THE LOCAL REGION BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE RIDING THE WAVE AHEAD OF THE PLUNGING
AIR MASS WILL DEEPEN, AND LIKELY TRACK EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
LOWER CONFIDENCE SURROUNDS ANAFRONTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
TYPE, YET AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR RAIN CHANGING TO WET
SNOW SHOWERS (ONTO A WARM GROUND) AROUND THE SUNDAY TIMEFRAME.
FURTHER LOW CERTAINTY FOR ANY SUBSEQUENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLY REACHING FAR NORTHERN ZONES INTO THE MONDAY TIMEFRAME,
ALTHOUGH AT LEAST CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES WILL LIKELY REACH FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-50S TO MID-60S THURSDAY-SATURDAY WILL
TREND DOWNWARD TO MAINLY 40S EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL BE OFTEN
WITHIN 35-45F THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE WIDESPREAD 20S TO
START NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
IMPACTS:
- WIND GUSTS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING INTO WEDNESDAY
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, WITH JUST SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH A JET STREAK ALOFT.
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS IT BEGINS TO PUSH TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF SPORADIC WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 20KT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BECOMING CLOSER TO 22-27KT DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY OR SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THIS EVENING, GRADUALLY
VEERING MORE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.
NO OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE PERIOD.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...NIELD
SHORT TERM...UPDIKE
LONG TERM...AGM
AVIATION...NIELD
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