813
FXUS63 KIND 050528
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1228 AM EST WED NOV 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY
- WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH/EAST
- MUCH COLDER STARTING SUNDAY WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 925 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST WITH A WEAK BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING NEAR
IOWA/MINNESOTA. LOOK FOR THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BEGIN
APPROACHING THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH DEPARTS.
WEAK MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND RESIDUAL DRY AIR WILL
LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION, BUT EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY AS THE MSLP TIGHTENS. SPORADIC GUSTS AROUND 20-25 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING S/SW SURFACE FLOW WILL HELP
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
UPPERS 40S TO LOW 50S.
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
PRIMARILY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, THOUGH A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.
IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT, BREEZY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TONIGHT OF 20-25 MPH BECOMING MORE FREQUENT AND STRENGTHENING
TO 25-30 MPH DURING THE DAY TOMORROW, WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE.
A DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT,
WITH THE ONLY NOTICEABLE IMPACT BEING THE GUSTY WINDS AND A
BRIEF COOLDOWN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THE WARMER START TO THE DAY TOMORROW, WITH LOWS TONIGHT NOT GETTING
MUCH BELOW 50, ALONG WITH PREFRONTAL WARM ADVECTION AND DEEP MIXING,
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TOMORROW TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S IF NOT NEAR
70 IN SPOTS BEFORE THE ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION LATE IN THE DAY.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THURSDAY WILL BE QUIET WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
SOME RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
AN INITIAL UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL FLOW NORTH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE SYSTEM. THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL
INDIANA, BUT ENOUGH FORCING WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT TO BRING SOME RAIN, SO WILL GO WITH HIGH POPS ON
FRIDAY.
THERE WILL BE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT, SO A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. AT THE MOMENT, THE BETTER
SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBINATION FOR POTENTIAL STORM ORGANIZATION WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.
ON SATURDAY, A MORE POTENT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA. MOST
MODELS KEEP FORCING AND MOISTURE WEST OF CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE
DAY, SO WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE POTENT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN USA AS
UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, BUT THE PATH OF THE LOW
REMAINS IN QUESTION.
STRONG FORCING WILL PRODUCE RAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT, AND
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF
DURING SUNDAY AS COLD ADVECTION KICKS IN.
IF THE SURFACE LOW TAKES A MORE SOUTHERN ROUTE, SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN
WITH THE RAIN BEFORE ENDING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA. THE MORE NORTHERN ROUTE COULD STILL LEAD TO A FEW FLAKES AS
COLD AIR MOVES IN, BUT COVERAGE WOULD BE LOWER. NO MATTER WHAT,
IMPACTS WOULD BE MINIMAL WITH THE WARM GROUND.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL HAVE TO SEE IF ANY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS COULD REACH INTO THE AREA, WITH FOCUS ON THE
NORTH/NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. WILL HAVE SOME LOW
POPS MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS IN THE 40S ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S, WITH LOWER 20S POSSIBLE NORTHWEST.
MONDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S FOR A GOOD PART OF THE AREA.
TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL ON TUESDAY, PROVIDING DRY AND COLD
CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EST WED NOV 5 2025
IMPACTS:
- WIND GUSTS DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND INCREASING INTO WEDNESDAY
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, WITH JUST SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH A JET STREAK ALOFT.
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS IT BEGINS TO PUSH TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF SPORADIC WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BECOMING CLOSER TO 22-30KT DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY OR
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THIS EVENING, GRADUALLY VEERING MORE
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.
NO OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE PERIOD.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...MELO
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...UPDIKE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page