319
FXUS63 KIND 050809
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
309 AM EST WED NOV 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY, WINDY AND WARM TODAY; PEAK WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 30MPH
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
- SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH/EAST
- MUCH COLDER STARTING SUNDAY WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
LATE SATURDAY - SUNDAY NIGHT
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED NOV 5 2025
CYCLOGENETIC FORCING BENEATH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK HAS LED TO A LOW LEVEL PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL PUSH EASTWARD THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
DAY WITH A DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO IT SOUTH. THAT SAID,
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE NEARLY NON-EXISTENT WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE
WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE STILL SOLIDIFIED OVER THE SOUTHERN US. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY, BUT WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE. THERE IS
STILL SOME VARIABILITY ON MAGNITUDE OF WIND GUSTS TODAY, OF WHICH
WILL DEPEND ON THE DEPTH OF THE MIXING LAYER, WITH TOP END GUST
POTENTIAL RANGING FROM 30-40MPH. STRONGEST WING GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO
BE OVER NE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. PRIMARILY QUIET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, THOUGH A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS INCREASE IN WINDS WILL CURTAIL DIURNAL COOLING TONIGHT AND
USHER IN UNSEASONABLE WARMTH THROUGH TODAY. EXPECT MORNING LOWS NEAR
50, WITH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 70. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING, OF WHICH WILL LIKELY
ADVECT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AS WINDS SHIFT FROM WSW TO
NW. THIS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PUSH TEMPERATURES TOWARDS FREEZING
TONIGHT, PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-69.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EST WED NOV 5 2025
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
THE LONG TERM WILL OVERSEE A TRANSITION FROM NEAR-SEASONABLE TO WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING A SYNOPTIC REGIME CHANGE THIS
WEEKEND. MID-WEEK ZONAL FLOW WILL AGAIN TREND TO ROBUST SOUTHWEST
BREEZES FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. MID TO UPPER 60S
AND A TOUCH OF HUMIDITY FRIDAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH CHANCES
OF AT LEAST LIGHT RAINFALL AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES
DRAGS ITS COOL FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WHILE SCATTERED TO BRIEFLY
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS LIKELY...LATEST GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING HEAVIER RAINFALL SHOULD BE FOCUSED NEAR THE OHIO
VALLEY...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING 0.25
INCHES FOR MOST CENTRAL INDIANA ZONES.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SOON AFTER WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY FOR THE PERIOD...AN ASSEMBLAGE
OF H500 SHORT WAVES THAT WILL COMBINE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS
WHILE HEIGHTS LOWER AND EARLY WINTER CONDITIONS INFILTRATE MUCH OF
THE COUNTRY. A POLAR TROUGH THAT HAD BE NEAR-STATIONARY NEAR JAMES
BAY WILL TWIST, TILT AND PLUNGE TO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...
OPENING THE GATE FOR CORRESPONDING AMPLIFIED CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE
TO BRING ITS MUCH COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS AND THEN
ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS MEANWHILE ADVANCING EAST FROM NEAR KANSAS CITY SATURDAY
WILL HELP CATALYZE THIS TRANSITION...ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW DEEPENS
NEAR NEW YORK LATE THIS WEEKEND. MODERATE UNCERTAINTY STILL
SURROUNDS THIS CIRCULATION'S TRACK/INTENSITY/TIMING AS IT CROSSES
THE MIDWEST AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT FURTHER CHANCES FOR AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIPITATION SURROUNDING
THE SATURDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. FIRST, SMALLER VORT KEEPING 400 OR SO
MILES AHEAD OF THE BIGGER TROUGH SWINGING DOWN FROM CANADA SHOULD AT
LEAST INITIALLY DELAY STRONGER DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW, AND
HOLD BACK SUB-FREEZING READINGS UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THAT
SAID, EXPECT MAINLY/ALL RAIN P-TYPE AS THIS WAVE SHUFFLES EAST. AS
COLDER AIR ARRIVES AT ALL LEVELS LATE SUNDAY - EARLY MONDAY...ANY
LINGERING MOISTURE MAY COMBINE WITH THE APPROACHING MAIN TROUGH'S
FORCING TO BRING FLURRIES AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS...AS HIGHS TREND FROM
AROUND 60F SATURDAY TO PERHAPS ONLY UPPER 30S MONDAY...WHILE
WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZES ARE LIKELY BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT, WITH MOST AREAS POSSIBLY BELOW 25F BOTH NIGHTS. A RETURN
TOWARDS NEAR-NORMAL READINGS IS MOST LIKELY DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EST WED NOV 5 2025
IMPACTS:
- WIND GUSTS DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND INCREASING INTO WEDNESDAY
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, WITH JUST SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH A JET STREAK ALOFT.
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS IT BEGINS TO PUSH TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF SPORADIC WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BECOMING CLOSER TO 22-30KT DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY OR
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THIS EVENING, GRADUALLY VEERING MORE
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.
NO OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE PERIOD.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...UPDIKE
LONG TERM...AGM
AVIATION...UPDIKE
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