082
FXUS63 KIND 080540
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1240 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
- TURNING COLDER WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY MORNING
- LOWS IN THE 20S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT, WITH WIND CHILLS
IN THE TEENS AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 943 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURES, OTHERWISE FORECAST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE SHOW SOME FOG
FORMING OFF TO SE OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE,
BUT AS OF NOW, CENTRAL INDIANA IS GENERALLY SEEING DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS OF 10 DEGREES OR MORE, THUS NO FOG HERE FOR THE TIME
BEING. AS TEMPERATURES DROP OVERNIGHT, PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE
WITH BEST CHANCES NEAR DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 40 ARE
EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO QUICKLY CLEAR ACROSS THE STATE WITH MUCH OF
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA ALREADY SHOWING CLEAR SKIES.
SHOWERS HAVE EXITED THE STATE WITH WIND GUSTS GRADUALLY RAMPING UP
AS SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WINDS
AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE 30-35KTS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
THE WIND GUSTS TO BECOME MORE FREQUENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
MIXING BECOMES MORE EFFICIENT. AS THE SURFACE INVERSION SETTLES IN
AFTER SUNSET, THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DECOUPLE AND WINDS WILL DROP
CLOSER TO CALM THROUGH THE NIGHT, ESPECIALLY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO SETTLE.
THERE MAY BE A FEW AREAS OF SHALLOW GROUND FOG TOWARDS DAYBREAK,
ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS AND OTHER FAVORED FOG FORMATION ZONES AS THE
WINDS CALM AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 UNDER THE CALM SKIES, BUT THAT WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE DROP OF DEW POINTS AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.
SATURDAY.
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY WORK BACK INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE NEXT AND STRONGER SYSTEM WHICH WILL CREATE A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE WITH MID 60S
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AND MID 40S NEAR THE MICHIGAN BORDER.
PRECIPITATION MAY ARRIVING IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES DURING
THE EVENING HOURS, BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY OCCUR TOWARDS
THE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
OUR PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG RANGE IS THE CHANCE OF
SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. SYNOPTIC
ANALYSIS SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE QUASI-ZONAL JET ACROSS THE CONUS. A
RECENT STORM TRACK TO OUR NORTH HAS KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE MOST PART. GOING FORWARD, GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING STRONG RIDGE-BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS IN TURN
CAUSES THE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CONUS TO BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED.
DEEP TROUGHING IS SHOWN TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN US BY SUNDAY.
SCALING DOWNWARD, A VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO GAIN A NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT AS IS ENTERS
THE MIDWEST, INCREASING OVERALL LARGE-SCALE LIFT. SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD COMMENCE TO OUR WEST WITH THE RESULTING LOW
PASSING DIRECTLY OVER CENTRAL INDIANA OR JUST TO OUR NORTH. THE
EXACT TRACK WILL DETERMINE WHO SEES THE MOST PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE POSITION AND TRACK OF THE LOW BUT A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN ON ITS
INTENSITY.
MOST GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN EXTENSIVE PRECIP SHIELD DEVELOPING ON THE
NORTHEAST FLANK OF THE APPROACHING LOW, PRIMARILY ALONG THE WARM
FRONT / REGION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. JET DYNAMICS AND MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS FAVOR THESE AREAS AS WELL BUT ALSO A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
NEAR THE SYSTEM'S CENTER. THOUGH NORTHERN INDIANA IS FAVORED FOR THE
BROAD AREA OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION, CENTRAL INDIANA MAY
EXPERIENCE A MORE SCATTERED / CONVECTIVE PRECIP SITUATION.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT RAIN FOR THE ENTIRETY OF OUR CWA AS THE
SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH. SNOW DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY UNTIL AFTER THE
SYSTEM IS TO OUR EAST, WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY AND STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION TAKING HOLD. MOST RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL
END BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, FOR
THE MOST PART, WITH HIGH END AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50". THE
BEST CHANCE OF HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
OUR CWA.
TEMPERATURES...
A SECONDARY TROUGH / VORT MAX IS MODELED TO DROP SOUTH BEHIND
SUNDAY'S SYSTEM. ENSEMBLE 850MB TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -10C TO -15C
ARE SHOWN, CORRESPONDING TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 20S
(F). RADIATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK TO BE IDEAL, AT LEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A STRONG MSLP GRADIENT SHOULD LEAD TO
BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. THOUGH THIS MAY KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS LOW AS THEY POTENTIALLY COULD. HOWEVER,
IT MAY ALSO HELP IT 'FEEL' MUCH COLDER DUE TO LOW WIND CHILLS. WIND
CHILL VALUES WELL INTO THE TEENS (F) ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
MONDAY MORNING. RADIATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL IS BETTER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, BUT BY THIS POINT THE TROUGH IS ALREADY MOVING
OUT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNING. STILL, LOWS WELL INTO THE 20S
ARE LIKELY.
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL...
AS THE SECONDARY TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY, VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH IS STILL QUITE WARM. THIS
SETUP SHOULD DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS AS IT HEADS SOUTH. COMBINED
WITH SOME POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION ALOFT AND CYCLONIC SURFACE
FLOW, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ARE BECOMING LIKELY SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THESE SNOW SHOWERS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A BROKEN BAND
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM LAKE MICHIGAN, GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD AS
THE WIND DIRECTION BECOME MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME.
AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN AS OF RIGHT NOW, DUE TO THE EXPECTED SCATTERED
NATURE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS. GIVEN THE DEPENDENCY ON LAKE-GENERATED
INSTABILITY, THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW AND OF ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
ACROSS OUR NORTH AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. MOST GUIDANCE DEPICTS
FAIRLY LIGHT AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH. SHOULD SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OCCUR, THEY WILL PRIMARILY BE ON ELEVATED AND GRASSY
SURFACES.
TUESDAY ONWARD...
DEEP TROUGHING DEPARTS QUICKLY ON TUESDAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
RESUMING. TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL (55/37) AS EARLY
AS WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED. QUIET AND DRY WEATHER ARE LIKELY THROUGH
MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
IMPACTS:
- BRIEF MVFR VIS POSSIBLE WITHIN 11Z-14Z AT TAF SITES EXCEPT KIND
- WINDS 7KT/LESS BECOMING VARIABLE SATURDAY EVENING FROM SURFACE LOW
- CEILINGS QUICKLY AT END OF TAF PERIOD AT KLAF/KIND
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD OVER CENTRAL INDIANA SITES. GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS SUBTLE HIGH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO REGION BETWEEN WAVES RIDING QUICKLY AMID ZONAL
UPPER PATTERN. MVFR VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE IN BR DURING 11Z-14Z
THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY AT KBMG...WITH NO VIS REDUCTION EXPECTED AT
KIND.
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE FROM WESTERLY HEADINGS
IF NOT VARIABLE.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM NW TO SE AHEAD OF EVENING -SHRA.
CEILINGS TO FALL TO LOW-VFR AT KLAF/KHUF BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...
AND AT KIND, POSSIBLY QUICKLY TO IFR LEVELS PRE-DAWN SUNDAY.
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK EASTWARD INTO REGION, TO
NEAR KIND BY 06Z SUNDAY...WITH SURFACE WINDS THEREFORE BECOMING
VARIABLE/BACKING SATURDAY NIGHT, AND INCREASING BY 06Z AT MOST
SITES.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...KF
SHORT TERM...WHITE
LONG TERM...ECKHOFF
AVIATION...AGM
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