260
FXUS63 KIND 150626
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
126 AM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP
TO 35 MPH.
- MOSTLY DRY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER, BUT GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LATE THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 934 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2025
FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LOWER CLOUDS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FORECAST
AREA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
WHILE THE INITIAL LOWER CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT, ADDITIONAL LOWER TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO INCREASE. THUS, STILL EXPECT SKIES
TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS TONIGHT.
THE WARM ADVECTION (AND CONTINUED SOUTHWEST WINDS) ALONG WITH THE
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH. FAVORED COLD
AREAS AND AREAS WHERE WINDS BRIEFLY DROP OFF THIS EVENING WILL DROP
MORE, BUT THEN THOSE AREAS WILL WARM BACK UP OVERNIGHT WITH THE
CLOUDS.
LEFT LOW TEMPERATURES ALONE FOR THE MOST PART AND ADJUSTED HOURLY
TEMPERATURES TO MATCH CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS.
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2025
PLEASANT AFTERNOON ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EARLIER CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT HAVING LARGELY
SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA. 18Z TEMPERATURES HAD
RISEN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
COURTESY OF A MILD SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE.
AFTER THE CHILLY WEATHER FROM EARLIER THIS WEEK...MUCH WARMER AIR
WILL BRIEFLY MAKE A REAPPEARANCE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT COINCIDES WITH A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
WARM ADVECTION TO BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THIS WILL BE ONLY FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE APPROACH OF A
COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THAT WILL ADD A COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING COMPONENT TO THE AIRMASS. THE FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY NEARING EARLIER FORECAST HIGHS AND EXPECT
THEM TO OUTPACE GUIDANCE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION. TEMPS WILL PEAK FROM 65 TO
70 OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER 70S
IN THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR HEADING INTO
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT BUT A FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE
WARM ADVECTION REGIME AIDED BY INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL
ENABLE CLOUDS TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTH.
THE MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUNSHINE DURING THE LATTER
PAT OF THE DAY WITH AN AXIS OF DEEPER SUBSIDENCE IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING THE FRONT. THE OVERALL LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING
THE BOUNDARY IN ADDITION TO THE BULK OF THE FORCING ALOFT REMAINING
WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT
ANY POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT A
SPRINKLE OR STRAY LIGHT SHOWER BUT CHANCES APPEAR FAR TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL BE NOTABLE ON SATURDAY AS
GUSTS PEAK AT 30 TO 35MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST GUSTS ARE LIKELY
TO FOCUS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPS...WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER NOT DECOUPLING TONIGHT AND THE
INFUSION OF WARM ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...LOWS WILL HOLD IN THE
50S. LOW LEVEL THERMALS REMAIN STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS RISING
INTO THE LOWER 70S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SATURDAY...AND
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT TEMPS MAY OUTPACE GUIDANCE AGAIN BASED ON THE
THOUGHTS ABOVE. THE RECORD HIGH FOR INDY FOR SATURDAY IS 74 FROM
1971.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2025
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE EXTENDED WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE BOUNDARY
PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING, BUT VERY WEAK FORCING SHOULD KEEP
MOST AREAS DRY. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RETURN TEMPERATURES TO NEAR
SEASONAL. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ARE LIKELY
GOING TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL THOUGH DUE TO WEAKENING WINDS FROM
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. IT
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH COULD
FALL INTO THE MID 20S DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS MOVES IN.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEGINS TO DECREASE SOME DURING THIS
PERIOD AS GUIDANCE DEPICTS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE
REGION. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IN GENERAL WITH ONLY SLIGHT DIFFERENCES. HOWEVER, THESE
DIFFERENCES IN EXACT TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM COMBINED WITH A
RELATIVELY SHARP GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA LEADS TO
LOWER CONFIDENCE, MAINLY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. SUFFICIENT FORCING
FROM THE APPROACHING SYSTEM AND WARM AIR ADVECTION SURGING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD IS LIKELY GOING TO PROMOTE PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA THOUGH. PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION KEEPS TEMPERATURES WARMER.
TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD...
CONFIDENCE DECREASES FURTHER TOWARDS THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD DUE TO DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS, ESPECIALLY LATE NEXT WEEK.
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SHOULD ALSO FILTER IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. LOW POPS REMAIN MIDWEEK AS A STRENGTHENING LLJ
AHEAD OF A MORE ORGANIZED UPPER WAVE APPROACHING THE CENTRAL CONUS
BEGINS TO PUMP MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK ONCE THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGH DUE A CONSIDERABLE IN MODEL OUTPUT. HEAVY RAIN DOES APPEAR
POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CONUS GIVEN ANOMALOUS DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS.
HOWEVER, THE LOOSE AGREEMENT THAT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
FAVORS LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF CENTRAL INDIANA.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 115 AM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
IMPACTS:
- SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS PEAKING AT 25 TO 30KT SATURDAY
- LLWS CONDITIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK
DISCUSSION:
WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND WILL BRING NON-CONVECTIVE
LLWS TO THE AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH MID CLOUDS GIVING
WAY TO LOWER VFR CLOUDS BY 12Z. CANNOT RULE OUT CEILINGS FALLING AT
TIMES TO BELOW 3000FT AT TIMES SATURDAY MORNING, BUT FOR NOW FEEL
ODDS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION. WILL HAVE A SCATTERED LOWER LAYER.
WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES, WITH
GUSTS OVER 25KT LIKELY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY LATE IN THE
PERIOD. ALSO CAN'T RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS REACHING
IND AND/OR BMG BETWEEN 22Z-03Z AS THE FRONT PASSES BUT CHANCES ARE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...50
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...MELO
AVIATION...KF
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