006
FXUS63 KIND 250539
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1239 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
- TURNING COLDER BEGINNING WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND
- WATCHING SATURDAY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK FOR STRONG STORM SYSTEMS
TO BRING RAIN, SNOW, AND LARGE TEMPERATURE SWINGS TO INDIANA
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 954 PM EST MON NOV 24 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE
TO POPS. LATEST KIND RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS RAIN MAINLY CONFINED TO
FAR NW PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AT THIS TIME. THIS IS WHERE THE
STRONGEST FORCING FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IS OVERLAPPING
WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE. EXPECT RAIN COVERAGE TO CONTINUE
INCREASING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES IN. LOOK
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BY LATE TONIGHT THANKS TO STRONGER
MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER, RAIN, AND
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL HELP TO LIMIT DIURNAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO COOL A FEW DEGREES WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50F.
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EST MON NOV 24 2025
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME WEAK LIFT MAY PRODUCE SOME
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN, MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST/WEST. WILL KEEP
SOME LOW POPS THERE.
TONIGHT, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST, AND
AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO ILLINOIS. A SURFACE
TROUGH/WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. UPPER AND
LOW LEVEL JETS WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING IN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. THE LIFT FROM
THE ABOVE FEATURES COMBINED WITH THE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL BRING
RAIN TO CENTRAL INDIANA. CURRENT TIMING OF THE MOST COVERAGE OF RAIN
IS OVERNIGHT, WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. WILL GO HIGH POPS ALL
AREAS. INSTABILITY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA, SO WILL CONTINUE TO
NOT MENTION THUNDER.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S.
STRONGER LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST
DURING THE MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW EXIT TO THE
EAST. WILL HAVE LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS EARLY IN THE DAY OVER THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA, WITH POPS THEN DIMINISHING FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE MORNING.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
LOOKS TO BE SOME WEAK LIFT IN THIS LAYER, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
DRIZZLE FROM TIME TO TIME.
WARM ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO NEAR
60.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EST MON NOV 24 2025
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER THE
CONUS. FLOW TENDS TO DIVERGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BEFORE RE-
CONVERGING OVER THE MIDWEST. A VORT MAX WITHIN THE SOUTHERN JET AXIS
IS CURRENTLY EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS, AND WILL BE THE SOURCE FOR
THE RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES, DRIVING A POTENT
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY. DEEP TROUGHING THEN TAKES HOLD
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WHICH PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
OF PARTICULAR INTEREST IS WEDNESDAY'S COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BE
THE FIRST STAGE OF OUR PATTERN CHANGE, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG
THE FRONT ITSELF AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS
BEHIND IT. WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS LIKELY PEAK BEFORE SUNRISE, FALLING
CONTINUOUSLY THROUGH THE DAY. COMBINED WITH WINDS IN THE 20-30MPH
RANGE, IT WILL FEEL RATHER UNPLEASANT. ADDITIONALLY, SOME SCATTERED
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY SINCE COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO SOME LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY.
WINDS REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE THROUGH THANKSGIVING AS A RELATIVELY
TIGHT MSLP GRADIENT PERSISTS ACROSS THE MIDWEST, THOUGH WE CAN BE
THANKFUL THAT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS WINDY AS WEDNESDAY. THAT
MAY BE OF LITTLE CONSOLATION SINCE HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH
FREEZING. WIND CHILLS INTO THE 20S EVEN DURING THE AFTERNOON APPEARS
LIKELY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
TROUGHING AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. SIMULTANEOUSLY, A STORM SYSTEM IS MODELED
TO TAKE SHAPE OUT WEST AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES ASHORE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY. AFTER THAT, THE SITUATION BECOMES
TRICKY WITH GUIDANCE DIVERGING CONSIDERABLY. A WIDE RANGE OF
SCENARIOS ARE POSSIBLE, RANGING FROM A WARMING TREND WITH RAIN
SHOWERS TO CONTINUED COLD WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE EVENTUAL
OUTCOME WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW THE WESTERN TROUGH EVOLVES.
THE GFS, FOR INSTANCE, GENERALLY ALLOWS THE TROUGH TO DIG SOUTHWARD
WITH SLOW PROGRESSION EASTWARD. THIS ALLOWS THE SYSTEM TO LIFT
NORTHWARD LATER WITH BROAD WARM FLOW AHEAD OF IT. THIS WOULD BRING
ABOUT A WARMER AND RAINIER SOLUTION FOR MUCH OF INDIANA, WITH
PERHAPS SOME SNOW AT ONSET OR FURTHER NORTH. ON THE CONTRARY, THE
ECMWF/GEM TAKE THE SHORTWAVE AND ALLOW IT TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD
WITHIN THE FLOW AROUND THE LARGER AND RETREATING EASTERN TROUGH.
THIS WOULD ALLOW LESS IN THE WAY OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM AND THUS LEAD TO A SNOWIER SOLUTION.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE VARIOUS TELECONNECTIONS WE SEE A GENERALLY
NEUTRAL TRENDING NEGATIVE PNA, WITH NEUTRAL AO/NAO. NEGATIVE PNA
TYPICALLY FAVORS PERSISTENT WESTERN TROUGHING / EASTERN RIDGING,
WHICH BOTH THE GEFS AND EPS ENSEMBLES DO SHOW LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS WOULD MAINLY BE AFTER OUR POTENTIAL
STORM SYSTEM WHICH OCCURS DURING THE TRANSITION FROM TROUGHING TO
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN US. THOUGH THAT DOES POINT TO A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND AFTER THE WEEKEND STORM WITH A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
STORM TRACK REMAINING IN PLACE INTO DECEMBER.
FOR NOW, BOTH SETS OF GUIDANCE ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING AN
INITIAL ROUND OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE FIRST
PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES THEREAFTER,
THOUGH WE'LL MAINTAIN A SLOW TRANSITION TO MAINLY RAIN UNTIL
GUIDANCE COMES INTO AGREEMENT ON HOW STRONG AND PROLONGED THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION IS. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
IMPACTS:
- VFR DETERIORATING QUICKLY IN RAIN TONIGHT TO IFR/LIFR BY 09Z
- LIFR/IFR CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY EVENING...AS -SHRA TAPER TO -DZ
FROM WEST TO EAST BY MIDDAY
- CEILINGS MOST LIKELY IMPROVING TO MVFR TOWARDS END OF 24-HR TAF
PERIOD
DISCUSSION:
UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CROSSING
MIDWEST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...WILL BRING POOR FLYING CONDITIONS
FROM PRE-DAWN HOURS INTO AT LEAST EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW CEILINGS
WILL LEAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS, WITH VISIBILITY LIKELY FALLING TO IFR
AT MOST TAF SITES THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN SCATTER OUT TO
-SHRA FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 10Z...BEFORE TAPERING TO -DZ AROUND
LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY HOURS.
IFR TO LINGER THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LOW-MVFR NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AT
LEAST LATE THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. SOUTHEAST WINDS
TONIGHT WILL VEER TO SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...MELO
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...ECKHOFF
AVIATION...AGM
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