149
FXUS63 KIND 270537
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1237 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TONIGHT, THURSDAY NIGHT, AND FRIDAY NIGHT
- THREAT CONTINUES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY BEFORE A GRADUAL
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN BY EARLY SUNDAY
- MUCH COLDER AIR TO OPEN DECEMBER WITH ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR
WINTRY WEATHER
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 857 PM EST WED NOV 26 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LARGE BROAD LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DEPART RESULTING IN A WEAKENING MSLP GRADIENT. THIS ALONG
WITH A SLOWLY STABILIZING PBL SHOULD HELP STRONG WINDS TAPER OFF LATE
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST WINDS HAVE RELAXED SLIGHTLY
FROM EARLIER TODAY, BUT WIND GUSTS ARE STILL AROUND 25-35 MPH. THESE
WINDS HAVE HELPED TO LIMIT DIURNAL COOLING. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S
TONIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA HAS CLEARED OUT DUE
TO DRIER AIR FILTERING IN. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE SUGGEST ADDITIONAL LOW
CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN FACTOR
AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOW CLOUDS.
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EST WED NOV 26 2025
OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A STRENGTHENING SURFACE
LOW OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AS OF 1PM. A VERY TIGHT MSLP
GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPED AROUND THE LOW, AND ESPECIALLY TO ITS
SOUTHWEST. THIS HAS LEAD TO STRONG WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN
40 TO 50 MPH. FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER (PBL) MIXING DEEPENS ALLOWING FOR GREATER
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF FASTER FLOW ALOFT. A WIND ADVISORY FOR
GUSTS BETWEEN 40-50MPH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7PM.
LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE PBL ARE ALSO STEEPENING, WHICH HAS LEAD TO
ENOUGH SHALLOW CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY FOR FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW OR
GRAUPEL SHOWERS. WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE, WE EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AS OF 1PM. DESPITE THIS,
SNOW AND GRAUPEL WILL BE THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE TODAY. THE REASONS
INCLUDE THE AFOREMENTIONED STEEP LAPSE RATES. SHALLOW CONVECTIVE
FORCING SHOULD ALLOW FOR RIMING AT TIMES, WHICH LEADS TO GRAUPEL.
IT'S ALSO QUITE COLD JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE SO ANY SNOW/GRAUPEL WILL
NOT NEED TO FALL THROUGH A SIGNIFICANTLY DEEP WARM SURFACE LAYER.
ADDITIONALLY, SOUNDINGS AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE SURFACE LAYER TO
BE RATHER DRY AS WELL. THIS WILL HELP REDUCE THE EFFECTS OF MELTING
THROUGH EVAPORATIONAL COOLING.
SNOW FLURRY/SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AROUND
SUNSET AS INSTABILITY IS LOST. WINDS WILL LIKEWISE BEGIN TO DIE DOWN
AS THE PBL BECOMES MORE STABLE. HOWEVER, A TIGHT MSLP GRADIENT
REMAINS IN PLACE AND WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
WELL WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S. COMBINED
WITH THE WIND, WIND CHILLS MAY DROP TO AS LOW AS 10-15 DEGREES.
THANKSGIVING
BY TOMORROW MORNING, THE LOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL HAVE MOVED
EASTWARD ALLOWING THE MSLP GRADIENT TO RELAX. EVEN WITH THE DOWNWARD
TREND, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAY. FREQUENT WIND
GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH APPEAR LIKELY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, WIND
CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE COLD. VALUES AS LOW AS 10 DEGREES
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HIGH TEMPS TOP OUT AROUND
FREEZING FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA, WITH MID TO UPPER 30S
FURTHER SOUTH.
CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE LESS COMPARED TO TODAY, WITH STRATOCUMULUS
LIFTING NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS MAY TEMPORARILY DROP SOUTHWARD
AGAIN DURING THE DAY TOMORROW BEFORE SLOWLY DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FLURRIES ARE STILL POSSIBLE THURSDAY BUT MAINLY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS PLACES ONLY OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES UNDER ANY CHANCE TO SEE FLURRIES ON THANKSGIVING.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EST WED NOV 26 2025
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE TRACKING THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE SNOW, THE
BREEZY WINDS THURSDAY WILL GRADUALLY RELAX DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH
WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE, BUT AS TEMPERATURES FALL
WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN IN THE TEENS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
WHILE MANY OF THE FINER DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN ON THE SATURDAY
SYSTEM, THE BROADER DETAILS ARE BECOMING A BIT MORE CLEAR.
SYNOPTICALLY, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OUT OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW JUST AHEAD
OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE SURFACE
LOW TRACK WITH BROAD MODEL AGREEMENT IN CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINING IN
THE "WARM" SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM AS THE LOW TRACKS FROM MISSOURI
THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND LAKE MICHIGAN.
WHERE DETAILS ARE STILL MORE UNCERTAIN AND IMPACTFUL WILL BE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION AND THE IMPACTS
ON PRECIPITATION TYPE. LATEST TRENDS OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS HAVE
TRENDED BACK SOUTHWARD CONCERNING THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WITH GENERALLY
COOLER ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO LOOK A BIT
UNMETEOROLOGICAL WITH SNOW WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND WEAKER WAA
NEAR PRECIPITATION ONSET AND CONTINUING UNTIL THE EARLY OVERNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH IN SNOW BEING THE INITIAL
PRECIPITATION TYPE BEFORE STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS WARMER AIR
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CURVE WILL HELP TO TRANSITION THE SNOW TO RAIN AT SOME POINT DURING
THE NIGHT.
THAT BEING SAID, AT LEAST SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS LOOK LIKELY DURING
PORTIONS OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SATURDAY WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S AHEAD OF ONSET AND NO
EXPECTED ISSUES FOR THE SNOW TO STICK AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
BELOW FREEZING IN THE DAYS LEADING UP TO SATURDAY. IT REMAINS VERY
UNCERTAIN ON SPECIFIC SNOWFALL TOTALS, BUT A REASONABLE EXPECTATION
AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE 2-4 INCHES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA
WITH 1-2 TOWARDS I-70 AND 0-1 IN POINTS TO THE SOUTH. THERE
REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AS MUCH AS 6
INCHES IN THE WORST-CASE SCENARIO, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS LAFAYETTE.
WITH THE LATEST TRENDS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE EVENT BEING ALL RAIN
LOOKS INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY. MUCH OF THE IMPACTS WILL BE OVER A
6-8 HOUR WINDOW BEGINNING SOMETIME IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH IMPACTS LESSENING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GOING INTO SUNDAY MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN AS
THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MUCH COLDER AIR PUSHES IN ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME MID-LEVEL
FORCING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN/SNOW CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SOME
SIGNS OF LINGERING FLURRIES INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER LOW-END CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHILE AREAS TO THE
SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA MAY SEE POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025
IMPACTS:
- WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED AT 10-16KT, GUSTING TO 20-27KT
THROUGH LATE TODAY
- LOW CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KIND/KLAF 09Z-14Z THIS MORNING
DISCUSSION:
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
TERMINALS INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH GENERALLY LOWER-VFR STRATUS
DRAGGING DOWN AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING,
WHICH MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO HIGH-MVFR OVER KLAF/KIND THROUGH 14Z. NO
OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GREATEST IMPACT, ALTHOUGH FLOW OVERNIGHT
INTO THANKSGIVING DAY TO BE NOTICEABLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.
HEADINGS WILL OVERALL VEER SLIGHTLY WITHIN 270-300 DEGREES THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD...AT 10-16KT AND GUSTING AS HIGH AS 20-27KT...WITH
OVERALL LIGHTER WINDS TO THE SOUTH/WEST. WINDS TO DIMINISH
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH LATE DAY, WITH LIGHTER WINDS SUSTAINED UNDER
10KT AT MOST TERMINALS AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...MELO
SHORT TERM...ECKHOFF
LONG TERM...WHITE
AVIATION...AGM
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