361
FXUS63 KIND 192259
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
559 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND GUSTS PEAKING AT 25 TO 30 MPH WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY.
- MODERATING PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE LATE WEEK.
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S POSSIBLE ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
THE STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO ERODE SLOWLY FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING NOW INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A FEW FLURRIES LINGERED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL
INDIANA BUT WERE DIMINISHING. WINDS REMAINED GUSTY BUT HAD FALLEN
BACK FROM THE HIGHER GUSTS EARLIER THIS MORNING. 18Z TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE MID AND UPPER TEENS OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA TO
THE LOWER 30S IN THE WABASH VALLEY.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT POISED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ONLY
PRODUCE A SPEED BUMP FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND IN THE SURGE
UP IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RESUME EARLY NEXT WEEK AND LAST
THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SEEING INCREASING SUNSHINE BY LATE
DAY. THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL AID IN RELAXING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO DIMINISH INTO THE
EVENING TO LARGELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS INTO THE FIRST PART
OF THE OVERNIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
WITH AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BEGINNING PREDAWN
SATURDAY AS MOISTURE ALOFT POOLS IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT.
THOSE HIGHER CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BUT THE
OVERALL TREND INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL BE FOR INCREASING SUNSHINE.
STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE WITH S/SW WINDS BECOMING GUSTY ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ON SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE LATE DAY SATURDAY WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE BEFORE CLEARING SATURDAY EVENING AS DEEPER
SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
TEMPS...LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE THIS EVENING MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND
MID 20S WITH LARGELY STEADY TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
THE ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO RISE SLOWLY
JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE FOR SATURDAY
WITH LOW LEVEL THERMALS SUPPORTIVE OF MID TO UPPER 40S.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
THE ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NEXT 1-1.5 WEEKS WON'T BE WITHOUT SOME SHORT TERM ADJUSTMENTS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO SE CANADA
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
FALLING 5-10 DEG OVER SATURDAY'S TO NEAR NORMAL. HOWEVER, AFTER
THIS SYSTEM THE PATTERN WILL MOST ASSUREDLY TRANSITION TO A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS AHEAD OF STRONG TROUGHING ALONG
THE WEST COAST. GEFS FORECASTS SHOW 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OF OVER 200 DM FROM
TUESDAY 12/23 THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH 850 MB
TEMPS RUNNING 15-20 DEG C ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE SAME PERIOD. NBM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MULTIPLE DAYS OF HIGHS 20-30 DEG ABOVE NORMAL
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA, PEAKING AROUND OR JUST AFTER CHRISTMAS DAY
WITH HIGHS 62-67 F AND LOWS 48-55. RECORDS HIGH MAXIMUM AND
MINIMUM TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN JEOPARDY FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AS INDY'S
RECORD HIGH MAX IS 64 F SET IN 1893 AND RECORD HIGH MIN IS 55F SET
IN 1971. WORTH MENTIONING AND POTENTIALLY IN JEOPARDY ARE THE
RECORDS HIGHS MAX TEMPS FOR 12/26 AND 12/27 IN THE UPPER 60S AND
THE RECORD HIGH MIN TEMP OF 47 FOR 12/26.
THE INCREASINGLY MILD/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WON'T BE ACCOMPANIED BY
BRIGHT BLUE SKIES HOWEVER, AS THE REGION REMAINS IN W-NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE INTERACTION OF SEVERAL WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
INTERACTING WITH MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT
MULTIPLE PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
CHRISTMAS EVE.
AVIATION (00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 558 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
IMPACTS:
- LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
- GUSTY S/SW WINDS ON SATURDAY PEAKING BETWEEN 25 AND 30KT.
DISCUSSION:
PASSING HIGH AND SOME MID CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND THEN BECOME
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTS OVER 25KT DEVELOPING BY
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH KLAF NEAR THE END
OF THE PERIOD, SWITCHING WINDS TO THE WEST.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ALOFT OVERNIGHT, CREATING LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR. THIS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...CROSBIE
AVIATION...50
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